Chapter II. The Home Economy

Extract

In this analysis of the behaviour of the United Kingdom economy we extend our forecast horizon to the end of 1982. As a consequence it is possible to see a slight upturn in economic activity during the forecast period (table 1) with GDP at the end of 1982 reaching about the same level as it had in the second quarter of this year. This upturn, however, is much too small to prevent the continuing rise in unemployment. Accordingly we expect registered unemployment in Great Britain (excluding school leavers) to reach 2½-2¾ million on a seasonally adjusted basis by the end of 1982. The upturn in activity does mean that the rate of increase in unemployment is likely to diminish but it is not sufficient for unemployment to show any signs of reaching a peak before the end of 1982.