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Chapter 1. Trends During 1959

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

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Extract

Between the end of 1958 and the end of 1959, total national output rose about 5 1/2 per cent; industrial production rose 10 per cent—more than in the previous four-and-a-half years put together. Expansion got under way towards the end of 1958. By then the mild recession that began earlier that year had probably corrected itself. But any spontaneous forces of recovery were greatly accelerated by Government action. Demand began to rise rapidly, stimulated first by the removal of all credit restrictions in the autumn of 1958 and then by the Budget.

Type
Articles
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 7 , January 1960 , pp. 4 - 22
Copyright
Copyright © 1960 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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References

note (1) page 4 Final demand may be measured in one of two ways : either by estimating the various items of expenditure directly or by estimating total production and adding to this the import bill for goods and services. It is to be expected that the two estimates will not be identical, particularly for quarterly series; but recently the discrepancies have been unusually large, with output increasing more than expenditure.

note (1) page 6 Four-fifths of the fall between the first three quarters of 1958 and 1959 occurred in three industries—chemicals, road vehicles and paper and printing.

note (2) page 6 When there are discrepancies in the results of the two methods of obtaining national income statistics (footnote 1, page 4), the figure of stocks is more than usually suspect, since it is the least reliable of the expenditure estimates.

note (3) page 6 While consumers' expenditure on radio and electrical goods is recorded as increasing by only 24 per cent between the first nine months of 1958 and 1959, manufacturers' deliveries appear to have risen by 40 per cent. Trade reports confirm sharp increases in stocks.

note (1) page 7 Their tendency to do so from 1955 to 1958 is discussed in the National Institute Economic Review, no. 2, March 1959.

note (2) page 7 These calculations are based on the first three quarters of the year.

note (1) page 9 National Institute Economic Review, no. 3, May 1959, page 3.

note (1) page 10 The enquiry is described more fully, with a description of the sample and details of the comparison of the 1958 and 1959 surveys, in the Appendix (page 44).

note (2) page 10 Maximum output meant, in the enquiry, not technically maximum output, but an output which could be achieved with customary working hours and conditions, with due allowance for the maintenance of plant and for breakdowns.

note (1) page 14 This assumes that imports stay at their low 1959 level, and that exports in 1960 are 10 per cent higher.

note (1) page 20 Statistical Appendix, table 3.

note (2) page 20 The size of the armed forces was practically the same in the two years.

note (3) page 20 The calculations are given in more detail in the Appendix, page 43.

note (4) page 20 National Institute Econonaic Review, no. 2, March 1959.

note (5) page 20 Southern England is used to cover the London and South Eastern, Eastern, Southern, and South Western regions; the Midlands to cover the Midland and North Midland regions; and the North of England to cover the East and West Ridings, North Western and Northern regions.

note (1) page 21 See footnote 5, page 20.