Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-g8jcs Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-28T05:07:34.210Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Beating the Odds: Exploring the Impact of Social Risk on Young People's School-to-Work Transitions during Recession in the UK

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

Kathryn Duckworth  and
Ingrid Schoon
Ingrid Schoon*
Affiliation:
Institute of Education, University of London
*
E-mail [email protected].
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Drawing on nationally representative data collected for two age cohorts in the UK, this paper a) assesses the effect of multiple independent socioeconomic risk factors in shaping the transition from school to work; and b) identifies potential protective factors enabling young people to beat the odds. By comparing experiences and findings across two cohorts we assess the generalisability of findings across contexts, i.e. the 2008 and 1980s recessions. The results show that some young people exposed to even severe socioeconomic risks avoid being NEET (not in education, employment or training). Factors that appear to reduce the cumulative risk effect in both cohorts include prior attainment, educational aspirations and school engagement, as well as the social mix of the school environment.

Keywords

Human capital skillsoccupational choicelabour productivityJ24
Type
Research Articles
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 222 , October 2012 , pp. R38 - R51
Copyright
Copyright © 2012 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

The analysis and writing of this paper were supported by the PATHWAYS International Postdoctoral Fellowship Programme for the Comparative Study of Productive Youth Development (Jacobs Foundation), and a grant from the UK Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC): RES-594-28-0001 (Centre for the Study of Learning and Lifechances in the Knowledge Economies [Llakes]). Data from the 1970 British Cohort Study and the Longitudinal Study of Young People in England were supplied by the ESRC Data Archive.

References

Andrews, M. and Bradley, S. (1997), ‘Modelling the transition from school and the demand for training in the United Kingdom’, Economica, 64, pp. 387–413.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Appleton, J.J., Christenson, S.L., Kim, D. and Reschly, A.L. (2006), ‘Measuring cognitive and psychological engagement: validation of the student engagement instrument’, Journal of School Psychology, 44, pp. 427–45.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ashton, D. and Bynner, J. (2011), ‘Labour market, employment and skills’, in Wadsworth, M. and Bynner, J. (eds), A Companion to Life Course Studies; The Social and Historical Context of the British Birth Cohort Studies, London, Routledge.Google Scholar
Bell, D.N.F. and Blanchflower, D.G. (2009), ‘What should be done about rising unemployment in the UK’, IZA Discussion Paper, No. 4040, Bonn.Google Scholar
Bell, D.N.F. and Blanchflower, D.G. (2010), ‘UK unemployment in the Great Recession’, National Institute Economic Review, 214, R3–R25.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bond, R. and Saunders, P. (1999), ‘Routes of success: influences on the occupational attainment of young British males’, British Journal of Sociology, 50, pp. 217–49.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Bronfenbrenner, U. (1979), The Ecology of Human Development: Experiments by Nature and Design, Cambridge, MA, Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Bronfenbrenner, U. and Morris, P.A. (2006), ‘The bioecological model of human development’, in Damon, W. and Lerner, R.M. (eds), Handbook of Child Psychology: Theoretical models of human development, 6th Edition, vol. 1, New York, John Wiley and Sons, Inc, pp. 793–828).Google Scholar
Butler, N.R., Haslum, M.N., Barker, W. and Morris, A.C. (1982), Child Health and Education Study. First report to the Department of Education and Science on the 10-year follow-up, Bristol, Department of Child Health, University of Bristol.Google Scholar
Bynner, J., Ferri, E. and Shepherd, P. (1997), Twenty-something in the 1990s: Getting On Getting By, Getting Nowhere, Aldershot, Ashgate.Google Scholar
Bynner, J. and Parsons, S. (2002), ‘Social exclusion and the transition from school to work: the case of young people Not in Education, Employment, or Training (NEET)’, Journal of Vocational Behavior, 60, pp. 289–309.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Crawford, C., Duckworth, K., Vignoles, A. and Wyness, G. (2011), Young People's Education and Labour Market Choices aged 16 to 19, Department for Education Research Report, London, Centre for Analysis of Youth Transitions.Google Scholar
Currie, J. and Thomas, D. (1999), ‘Early test scores, socioeconomic status and future outcomes’, Working Paper 6943, National Bureau of Economic Research, February.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Davis-Kean, P.E. (2005), ‘The influence of parent education and family income on child achievement: the indirect role of parental expectations and the home environment’, Journal of Family Psychology, 19(2), pp. 294–304.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Dex, S. and McCulloch, A. (1995), Flexible Employment in Britain: A Statistical Analysis, Research Discussion Series No. 15, Manchester, Equal Opportunity Commission.Google Scholar
Dickerson, A. and Jones, P. (2004), Estimating the Impact of a Minimum Wage on the Labour Market Behaviour of 16 and 17 Year Olds, Research Report for the Low Pay Commission.Google Scholar
Duncan, G.J., Bergman, L., Duckworth, K., Kokko, K., Lyyra, A-L., Metzger, M., Pulkkinen, L. and Simonton, S. (2012), ‘The role of child skills and behaviors in the intergenerational transmission of inequality: a cross-national study’, in Ermisch, J., Jäntti, M. and Smeeding, T. (eds), From Parents to Children: The Intergenerational Transmission of Advantage, Russell Sage Foundation, New York.Google Scholar
Duncan, G. J. and Brooks-Gunn, J. (1997), Consequences of Growing Up Poor, New York, Russell-Sage Foundation.Google Scholar
Eccles, J.S. (1993), ‘School and family effects on the ontogeny of children's interests, self perceptions, and activity choices’, in Dienstbier, R. and Jacobs, J.E. (eds), Developmental Perspectives on Motivation, vol. 40, Lincoln, University of Nebraska Press pp. 145–208.Google Scholar
Elder, G.H. (1998), ‘The life course and human development’, in Damon, W. and Lerner, R.M. (eds), Handbook of Child Psychology: Theoretical Models of Human Development, 5th Edition, Volume 1, New York, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., pp. 939–92.Google Scholar
Elliott, J. and Shepherd, P. (2006), ‘Cohort profile of the 1970 British Birth Cohort (BCS70)’, International Journal of Epidemiology, 35, pp. 836–43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ermisch, J., Jäntti, M. and Smeeding, T. (2012), From Parents to Children: The Intergenerational Transmission of Advantage, New York, Russell Sage Foundation.Google Scholar
Feinstein, L., Lupton, R., Hammond, C., Mujtaba, T., Salter, E. and Sorhaindo, A. (2008), The Public Value of Social Housing: A Longitudinal Analysis of the Relationship between Housing and Life Chances, London, The Smith Institute.Google Scholar
Feinstein, L., Robertson, D. and Symons, J. (1999), ‘Pre-school education and attainment in the NCDS and the BCS’, Education Economics, 7(3), pp. 209–34.Google Scholar
Feinstein, L. and Sabates, R. (2006), Predicting Adult Life Outcomes from Earlier Signals: Identifying Those at Risk, Report for the Prime Minister's Strategy Unit.Google Scholar
Feinstein, L. and Symons, J. (1999), ‘Attainment in secondary school’, Oxford Economic Papers, 51, pp. 300–21.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ferri, E., Bynner, J. and Wadsworth, M. (2003), Changing Britain, Changing Lives: Three Generations at the Turn of the Century, London, Institute of Education, University of London.Google Scholar
Francesconi, M. and Golsch, K. (2005), ‘The process of globalization and transitions to adulthood in Britain’, in Blossfeld, H.P., Klijzing, E., Mills, M. and Kurz, K. (eds), Globalization, Uncertainty and Youth in Society, London, Routledge.Google Scholar
Fredricks, J.A., Blumenfeld, P.C. and Paris, A.H. (2004), ‘School engagement: potential of the concept, state of the evidence’, Review of Educational Research, 74, pp. 59–109.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Freeman, R.B. and Wise, D.A. (1982), The Youth Labor Market Problem: Its Nature, Causes, and Consequences, University of Chicago Press and NBER.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Furlong, A. and Cartmel, F. (2007), Young People and Social Change: New Perspectives, Series: Sociology and social change, McGraw-Hill/Open University Press.Google Scholar
Furstenberg, F.F., Brooks-Gunn, J. and Morgan, S.P. (1987), ‘Adolescent mothers and their children in later life’, Family Planning Perspectives, 19(4), pp. 142–51.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Galindo-Rueda, F. (2002), Progression Routes of Cohort Members: NCDS (1974-2000) and BCS70 (1986-2000). Description of the data work on British cohort surveys, London: Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics.Google Scholar
Gregg, P. and Tominey, E. (2005), ‘The wage scar from male youth unemployment’, Labour Economics, 12, pp. 487–509.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gregg, P. and Wadsworth, J. (2001), ‘Everything you ever wanted to know about measuring worklessness and polarization at the household level but were afraid to ask’, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 63 (Special Issue).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Haveman, R. and Wolfe, B. (1995), ‘The determinants of children's attainments: a review of methods and findings’, Journal of Economic Literature, 23, pp. 1829–78.Google Scholar
Heckman, J.J. and Krueger, A.B. (2005, Inequality in America: What Role for Human Capital Policies?, Cambridge, MA, MIT Press.Google Scholar
Heckman, J.J., Stixrud, J. and Urzua, S. (2006), ‘The effects of cognitive and noncognitive abilities on labor market outcomes and social behavior’, Journal of Labor Economics, 24(3), pp. 411–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hills, J. (2007), Ends and Means: The Future Roles of Social Housing in England, CASE report 34, London, ESRC Research Centre for the Analysis of Social Exclusion.Google Scholar
Hobcraft, J. N. (2002), ‘Social exclusion and the generations’, in Hills, J., LeGrand, J. and Piachaud, D. (eds), Understanding Social Exclusion, Oxford, Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Huston, A.C., McLoyd, V.C. and Coll, C.G. (1994), ‘Children and poverty: issues in contemporary research’, Child Development, 65, pp. 275–82.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Luthar, S.S. (ed.) (2003), Resilience and Vulnerability: Adaptation in the Context of Childhood Adversities, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Luthar, S.S., Cicchetti, D. and Becker, B. (2000), ‘The construct of resilience: a critical evaluation and guidelines for future work’, Child Development, 71(3), pp. 543–62.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Macmillan, L. (2010), The Intergenerational Transmission of Worklessness in the UK, Bristol, The Centre for Market and Public Organisation, University of Bristol.Google Scholar
Masten, A.S. (2001), ‘Ordinary magic – Resilience processes in development’, American Psychologist, 56(3), pp. 227–38.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Micklewright, J. (1989), ‘Choice at sixteen’, Economica, 56, pp. 25–39.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Moffitt, T.E. and the E-Risk Study Team (2002), ‘Teen-aged mothers in contemporary Britain’, Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry, 43, pp. 727–42, doi: 10.1111/1469-7610.00082.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Moore, K.A., Vanivere, S. and Redd, Z. (2006), ‘A sociodemographic risk index’, Social Indicators Research, 75, pp. 45–81.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mortimer, J.T., Harley, C. and Aronson, P.J. (1999), ‘How do prior experiences in the workplace set the stage for transitions to adulthood? Transitions to Adulthood in a Changing Economy: No Work, No Family, No Future?’, in Booth, A. et al. (eds), Transitions to Adulthood in a Changing Economy: No Work, No Family, No Future?, Westport, CT, Praeger, pp. 131–59.Google Scholar
Mortimer, J.T. and Staff, J. (2004), ‘Early work as a source of developmental discontinuity during the transition to adulthood’, Development and Psychopathology, 16(4), pp. 1047–70.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Mortimore, J., Mortimore, P. and Thomas, H. (1994), Managing Associate Staff: Innovation in Primary and Secondary Schools, London, Paul Chapman Associates.Google Scholar
Pilling, D. (1990), Escape from Disadvantage, London, Falmer Press.Google Scholar
Rice, P. (1999), ‘The impact of local labour markets on investment in further education: evidence from the England and Wales Youth Cohort Studies’, Journal of Population Economics, 12, pp. 287–312.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Robertson, D. and Symons, J. (2003), ‘Do peer groups matter? Peer group versus schooling effects on academic attainment’, Economica, 70, pp. 31–53.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Royston, P. (2005), ‘Multiple imputation of missing values: update’, Stata Journal, 5(2), pp. 188–201.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rutter, M. (1979), ‘Protective factors in children's responses to stress and disadvantage’, in Kent, M.W. and Rolf, J.E. (eds), Primary Prevention in Psychopathology, vol. 3, Hanover, NH, University Press of New England, pp. 49–74.Google Scholar
Rutter, M. (1987), ‘Psychosocial resilience and protective mechanisms’, American Journal of Orthopsychiatry, 57(3), pp. 316–31.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Rutter, M. (1989), ‘Pathways from childhood to adult life’, Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry and Allied Disciplines, 30(1), pp. 23–51.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Scarpetta, S., Sonnet, A. and Manfredi, T. (2010), ‘Rising youth unemployment during the crisis: how to prevent negative long-term consequences on a generation?’, OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers, No. 106, OECD Publishing.Google Scholar
Schoon, I. (2006), Risk and Resilience: Adaptations in Changing Times, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schoon, I. (2008), ‘A transgenerational model of status attainment: the potential mediating role of school motivation and education’, National Institute Economic Review, 205, pp. 72–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schoon, I. (2010), ‘Planning for the future. Changing education expectations in three British cohorts’, Historical Social Research, 35(2), pp. 99–119.Google Scholar
Schoon, I. and Bartley, M. (2008), ‘Growing up in poverty: the role of human capability and resilience’, The Psychologist, 21, pp. 24–7.Google Scholar
Schoon, I., Bynner, J., Joshi, H., Parsons, S., Wiggins, R.D. and Sacker, A. (2002), ‘The influence, timing and duration of risk experiences for the passage of childhood to midadulthood, Child Development, 73, pp. 1486–1504.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Schoon, I., Martin, P. and Ross, A. (2007), ‘Career transitions in times of social change. His and her story’, Journal of Vocational Behavior, 70(1), pp. 78–96, doi: 10.1016/j.jvb.2006.04.009.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schoon, I., McCulloch, A., Joshi, H.E., Wiggins, R.D. and Bynner, J. (2001), ‘Transitions from school to work in a changing social context’, Young, 9, pp. 4–22.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sigle-Rushton, W. (2004), Intergenerational and Life-course Transmission of Social Exclusion in the 1970 British Cohort Study, CASE paper 78, London, London School of Economics: ESRC Centre for the Analysis of Social Exclusion.Google Scholar
Social Statistics Research Unit (1982), 1970 British Cohort Study Ten-year follow-up: Guide to data available at the ESRC Data Archive, London, City University.Google Scholar
Strand, S. (1999), ‘Ethnic group, sex and economic disadvantage: associations with pupils’ educational progress from baseline to the end of Key Stage 1’, British Educational Research Journal, 25(2), pp. 179–202.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Strand, S. (2007), Minority Ethnic Pupils in the Longitudinal Study of Young People in England (LSYPE), Research Report 002, London, Department of Children, Schools and Families.Google Scholar
Van Ryzin, M.J. (2011), ‘Protective factors at school: reciprocal effects among adolescents’ perceptions of the school environment, engagement in learning, and hope’, Journal of Youth and Adolescence, 40(12), pp. 1568–80, doi: 10.1007/s10964-011-9637-7.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Wang, M.T. and Holcombe, R. (2010), ‘Adolescents’ perceptions of classroom environment, school engagement, and academic achievement’, American Educational Research Journal, 47, pp. 633–62.CrossRefGoogle Scholar