Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-2brh9 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-24T18:37:54.674Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Prospects for the UK Economy

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

Extract

The UK economy has now enjoyed four consecutive quarters of expansion. Indeed GDP growth reached 1.2 per cent in the second quarter of this year, the fastest rate of growth in over a decade. The National Institute's estimate of monthly GDP suggests that the economy continued to expand in the third quarter of this year, but at a more modest pace of 0.5 per cent (see figure 1). Such a slowdown should not have come as a surprise. Persistently strong growth is unlikely in an economy where household balance sheets are still undergoing repair, funding channels to business remain impaired and the public sector is embarking on a significant programme of fiscal consolidation. However, we continue to think the chances of negative output growth in 2011 are about one in five and hence a double dip recession is unlikely.

Type
The UK Economy
Copyright
Copyright © 2010 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

The production of this forecast is supported by the Institute's Corporate Members: Abbey plc, Bank of England, Barclays Bank plc, HM Treasury, Nomura Research Institute Europe Ltd, and the Office for National Statistics.

References

Barrell, R., Choy, A. and Riley, R. (2003), ‘Consumption and housing wealth in the UK’, National Institute Economic Review, 186, pp. pp. 53–6.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barrell, R., Davis, E., Liadze, I. and Karim, D. (2010), ‘The effects of banking crises on potential output in OECD countries’, NIESR Discussion Paper no. 358.Google Scholar
Barrell, R. and Holland, D. (2010), ‘Fiscal and financial responses to the economic downturn’, National Institute Economic Review, 186, pp. R5IR62.Google Scholar
Barrell, R., Holland, D. and Liadze, I. (2010), ‘Accounting for UK economic performance 1973-2009’, NIESR Discussion Paper no. 359.Google Scholar
Holland, D., Kirby, S. and Whitworth, R. (2010), ‘A comparison of labour market responses to the global downturn’, National Institute Economic Review, 211, pp. F38F42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reinhart, C.M. and Rogoff, K. (2009), This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Oxford, Princeton University Press.Google Scholar