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Oil prices and world inflation

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

Ray Barrell  and
Olga Pomerantz
Ray Barrell*
Affiliation:
National Institute of Economic and Social Research
Olga Pomerantz*
Affiliation:
National Institute of Economic and Social Research
*
e-mail: [email protected]
[email protected]
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Extract

Between NIESR's October 2007 and January 2008 global economy forecasts, oil prices rose by almost $20 per barrel, and they averaged $86 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2007, as against our assumption of $71 a barrel. In the first quarter of 2008 we project that they will average $90 a barrel, $19 above the level we projected in October. Real oil prices have risen almost to the level seen in around 1980, as we can see from figure 1. There has, however, been no resurgence of inflationary pressure on the scale that was observed in the mid-1970s and early 1980s in response to oil price increases. This has been much as we anticipated, as is discussed in Barrell and Pomerantz (2004), and our model simulation results reflect the changed environment in which the increase has taken place.

Type
Articles
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 203 , January 2008 , pp. 31 - 34
Copyright
Copyright © 2008 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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