Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-r5fsc Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-28T08:05:34.007Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Cross-Country Empirical Studies of Systemic Bank Distress: A Survey

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

Enrica Detragiache
Affiliation:
Development Research Group, The World Bank, and Research Department, International Monetary Fund

Abstract

A rapidly growing empirical literature is studying the causes and consequences of bank fragility in contemporary economies. The paper reviews the two basic methodologies adopted in cross-country empirical studies, the signals approach and the multivariate probability model, and their application to study the determinants of banking crises. The use of these models to provide early warnings for crises is also reviewed, as are studies of the economic effects of banking crises and of the policies to forestall them. The paper concludes by identifying directions for future research.

Type
Articles
Copyright
Copyright © 2005 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

This paper was prepared for this special edition of the National Institute Economic Review. We would like to thank Robert Cull for helpful suggestions and Baybars Karacaovali for excellent research assistance. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, the World Bank, their Executive Directors, or the countries they represent.

References

Arteta, C. (2003), ‘Are financially dollarized countries more prone to costly crises?’, International Finance Discussion Paper, Board of the Governors of the Federal Reserve System, No. 763.Google Scholar
Arteta, C. and Eichengreen, B. (2002), ‘Banking crises in emerging markets: presumptions and evidence’, in Blejer, M. and Skreb, M. (eds), Financial Policies in Emerging Markets, Cambridge, MA, MIT Press.Google Scholar
Akerlof, G.P. and Romer, P. (1993), ‘Looting: the economic underworld of bankruptcy for profit’, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, pp.173.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barth, J., Caprio, G. and Levine, R. (2001), ‘Banking systems around the globe: do regulations and ownership affect performance and stability?’, in Mishkin, R. (ed.), Prudential Supervision: What Works and What Doesn't, University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Barth, J., Caprio, G. and Levine, R. (2004), ‘Bank regulation and supervision: what works best?’, Journal of Financial Intermediation.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beck, T., Demirgüç-Kunt, A. and Levine, R. (2004), ‘Bank regulation, concentration and crises’, World Bank mimeo.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bell, J. and Pain, D. (2000), ‘Leading indicator models of banking crises - a critical review’, Financial Stability Review, Bank of England, issue 9, article 3, pp. 113129.Google Scholar
Bernanke, B.S. (1983), ‘Nonmonetary effects of the financial crisis in the propagation of the Great Depression’, American Economic Review, 73, pp. 257276.Google Scholar
Bernanke, B.S., Lown, C.S. and Friedman, B.M. (1991), ‘The credit crunch’, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (2), pp. 205239.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bongini, P., Claessens, S. and Ferri, G. (1999), ‘The political economy of distress in East Asian financial institutions’, World Bank mimeo.Google Scholar
Borio, C. and Lowe, P. (2002), ‘Assessing the risk of banking crises’, BIS Quarterly Review, pp. 4354.Google Scholar
Bordo, M., Eichengreen, B., Klingebiel, D. and Martinez-Peria, M.S. (2001), ‘Is the crisis problem growing more severe?’, Economic Policy, 32, pp. 5182.Google Scholar
Borensztein, E. and Lee, J.-W. (2002), ‘Financial crisis and credit crunch in Korea: evidence from firm-level data’, Journal of Monetary Economics, 49, pp. 853875.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Boyd, J., Gomis, P., Kwak, S. and Smith, B. (2000), ‘A user's guide to banking crises’, University of Minnesota mimeo.Google Scholar
Brown, C.O. and Dinc, S. (2004), ‘The politics of bank failures: evidence from emerging markets’, University of Michigan Business School.Google Scholar
Calomiris, C. and Mason, J.R. (1997), ‘Contagion and bank failures during the Great Depression: the Chicago 1932 bank panic’, American Economic Review, 87, 5, pp. 883 −63.Google Scholar
Calvo, G. (1996), ‘Capital flows and macroeconomic management: Tequila lessons’, International Journal of Finance and Economics, 1, 3, pp. 207224.3.0.CO;2-3>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Calvo, G. (1999), ‘Testimony on full dollarization’, presented before a joint hearing of the subcommittees on Economic Policy and International Trade and Finance, US Congress, April.Google Scholar
Caprio, G. and Klingebiel, D. (1996), ‘Dealing with bank insolvencies: cross country experience’, Policy Research Working Paper no. 1620, The World Bank, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
Caprio, G. and Martinez-Peria, M.S. (2000), ‘Avoiding disaster: policies to reduce the risk of banking crises’, Discussion Paper, Egyptian Center for Economic Studies, Cairo, Egypt.Google Scholar
Caprio, G. and Summers, L. (1993), ‘Finance and its reform: beyond laissez-faire’, Policy Research Working Paper no. 1171, The World Bank, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
Claessens, S., Demirgüç-Kunt, A. and Huizinga, H. (2001), ‘How does foreign entry affect domestic banking markets?’, Journal of Banking and Finance, 25, 5, pp. 891911.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Claessens, S., Klingebiel, S. and Laeven, L. (2003), ‘Resolving systemic crises: policies and institutions’, unpublished manuscript, The World Bank.Google Scholar
Cull, R., Senbet, L. and Sorge, M. (2005), ‘Deposit insurance and financial development’, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (forthcoming).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dages, G.B., Goldberg, L. and Kinney, D. (2000), ‘Foreign and domestic bank participation in emerging markets: lessons from Mexico and Argentina’, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review, 6, 3, pp. 1736.Google Scholar
Davis, E.P. (1995), Debt, Financial Fragility, and Systemic Risk, Oxford and New York, Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dell'Ariccia, G., Detragiache, E. and Rajan, R. (2005), ‘The real effect of banking crises’, IMF Working Paper No. 05/??.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Demirgüç-Kunt, A. (1989), ‘Deposit-institution failures: a review of empirical literature’, Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, 25, 4.Google Scholar
Demirgüç-Kunt, A. and Detragiache, E. (1998), ‘The determinants of banking crises: evidence from developing and developed countries’, IMF Staff Papers, 45, pp. 81109.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Demirgüç-Kunt, A. and Detragiache, E. (2000), ‘Monitoring banking sector fragility: a multivariate logit approach’, World Bank Economic Review, 14, 2, pp. 287307.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Demirgüç-Kunt, A. and Detragiache, E. (2002), ‘Does deposit insurance increase banking system stability? An empirical investigation’, Journal of Monetary Economics, 49, pp. 13731406.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Demirgüç-Kunt, A., Detragiache, E. and Gupta, P. (forthcoming), ‘Inside the crisis: an empirical analysis of banking systems in distress’, Journal of International Economics and Finance.Google Scholar
Demirgüç-Kunt, A. and Huizinga, H. (2004), ‘Market discipline and deposit insurance’, Journal of Monetary Economics, 51, 2.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Demirgüç-Kunt, A., Levine, R. and Min, H.-G. (1998), ‘Opening to foreign banks: issues of stability, efficiency and growth’, in Meltzer, A. (ed.), The Implications of Globalization of World Financial Markets, Seoul, Bank of Korea.Google Scholar
De Nicolo, G., Honohan, P. and Ize, A. (2003), ‘Dollarization of the banking system: good or bad?’, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 3116.Google Scholar
Dell'Ariccia, G., Detragiache, E. and Rajan, R. (2005), ‘The real effect of banking crises’, unpublished, IMF.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Detragiache, E. and Gupta, P. (2004), ‘Foreign banks in emerging market crises: evidence from Malaysia’, IMF Working Paper No. 129.Google Scholar
Diaz-Alejandro, C. (1985), ‘Good-bye financial repression, hello financial crash’, Journal of Development Economics, 19, pp. 124.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dollar, D. and Hallward-Driemeier, M. (2000), ‘Crisis, adjustment, and reform in Thai industrial firms’, The World Bank Research Observer, 15, pp. 122.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Domaç, I. and Ferri, G. (1999), ‘The credit crunch in East Asia: evidence from field findings on bank behavior and policy issues’, mimeo, The World Bank.Google Scholar
Domac, I. and Martinez Peria, M.S. (2003), ‘Banking crises and exchange rate regimes: is there a link?’, Journal of International Economics, 61, 1, pp 4172.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Drees, B. and Pazarbasioglu, C. (1998), ‘The Nordic banking crises: pitfalls in financial liberalization?’, IMF Working Paper No. 161, Washington, DC, April.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Edwards, S. and Végh, C. (1997), ‘Banks and macroeconomic disturbances under predetermined exchange rates, Journal of Monetary Economics, 40, 2, pp. 239278.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eichengreen, B. and Fishlow, A. (1998), ‘Contending with capital flows: what is different about the 1990s?’, in Kahler, M. (ed.), Capital Flows and Financial Crises, Ithaca, Cornell University Press, pp. 2368.Google Scholar
Eichengreen, B. and Hausmann, R. (1999), ‘Exchange rates and financial fragility’, National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper no. 7418.Google Scholar
Eichengreen, B. and Rose, A. (1998), ‘Staying afloat when the wind shifts: external factors and emerging-market banking crises’, NBER Working paper no. 6370, January.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eichengreen, B., Rose, A. and Wyplosz, C. (1995), ‘Exchange market mayhem: the antecedents and aftermath of speculative attacks’, Berkeley, University of California.Google Scholar
Garcia-Herrero, A. (1997), ‘Banking crisis in Latin America in the 1990s: lessons from Argentina, Paraguay, and Venezuela’, IMF Working Paper 97/40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gavin, M. and Hausman, R. (1995), ‘The roots of banking crises: the macroeconomic context’, in Hausman, R. and Rojas-Suarez, L. (eds), Banking Crises in Latin America, John Hopkins University Press, Baltimore.Google Scholar
Ghosh, S. and Ghosh, A. (1999), ‘East Asia in the aftermath: was there a crunch?’, IMF Working Paper No. 99/38.Google Scholar
Glick, R. and Hutchison, M. (2001), ‘Banking and currency crises: how common are the twins?’, in Glick, R.Moreno, R. and Spiegel, M (eds), Financial Crises in Emerging Markets, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goldstein, M., Kaminsky, G. and Reinhart, C. (2000), ‘Assessing financial vulnerability. An early warning system for emerging markets’, Institute for International Economics, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
Goldstein, M. and Turner, P. (1996), ‘Banking crises in emerging economies: origins and policy options’, BIS Economic Papers No. 46, October.Google Scholar
Gonzáles-Hermosillo, B. (1999), ‘Determinants of ex ante Nanking System distress: a macro-micro empirical exploration of some recent episodes’, IMF Working Paper, 99/33.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gonzáles-Hermosillo, B., Pazarbasioglu, C. and Billings, R. (1997), ‘Determinants of banking sector fragility: a case study of Mexico’, IMF Staff Papers, September.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gorton, G. (1988), ‘Banking panics and business cycles’, Oxford Economic Papers, 40, pp. 751781.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hardy, D. and Pazarbasioglu, C. (1999), ‘Determinants and leading indicators of banking crises: further evidence’, IMF Staff Papers, 46, 3, pp. 247258.Google Scholar
Haubrich, J.G. (1990), ‘Nonmonetary effects of financial crises: lessons from the Great Depression’, Journal of Monetary Economics, 25, 2, pp. 223252.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hoggarth, G., Reis, R. and Saporta, V. (2002), ‘Output costs of banking system instability: some empirical evidence’, Journal of Banking and Finance, 26, pp. 825855.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Honohan, P. (1997), ‘Banking system failures in developing and transition countries: diagnosis and prediction’, BIS Working Paper 39.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Honohan, P. and Klingebiel, D. (2003), ‘The fiscal cost implications of an accommodating approach to banking crises’, Journal of Banking and Finance, 27, pp. 15391560.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hoshi, T. and Kashyap, A.K. (2004), ‘Japan's financial crisis and economic stagnation’, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18, 1, pp. 326.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jaramillo, J.C. (2000), ‘An overview of Paraguay's banking crisis during the 1990s’, mimeo, International Monetary Fund.Google Scholar
Kane, E. (1989), The S&L Insurance Mess: How Did it Happen?, Urban Institute Press, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
Kaminsky, G. (1999), ‘Currency and banking crises: the early warnings of distress’, IMF working paper, No. 99/178.Google Scholar
Kaminsky, G. and Reinhart, C.M. (1999), ‘The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance of payments problems’, American Economic Review, 89, pp. 473500.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Keefer, P. (2001), ‘When do special interests run rampant? Disentangling the role of elections, incomplete information, and checks and balances in banking crises’, World Bank.Google Scholar
Krozner, R.S. (1997), ‘The political economy of banking and financial regulation in the US’, in Furstenberg, G.M. von (ed.), The Banking and Financial Structure in the NAFTA Countries and Chile, Boston, Kluwer Academic Publishers.Google Scholar
La Porta, R., Lopez-de-Silanes, F. and Shleifer, A. (2002), ‘Government ownership of banks’, Journal of Finance, 57, pp. 265301.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lindgren, C.-J., Baliño, T.J.T., Enoch, C., Gulde, A.-M., Quintyn, M. and Teo, L. (1999), ‘Financial sector crisis and restructuring. Lessons from Asia’, IMF Occasional Paper No. 188.Google Scholar
Lindgren, C.J., Garcia, G. and Saal, M. (1996), Bank Soundness and Macroeconomic Policy, IMF, Washington DC.Google Scholar
Mehrez, G. and Kaufmann, D. (1999), ‘Transparency, liberalization, and financial crises’, World Bank.Google Scholar
Mishkin, F. S. (1996), ‘Understanding financial crises: a developing country perspective’, NBER Working Paper no. 5600, Cambridge MA.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mundell, R. (1961), ‘A theory of optimum currency areas’, American Economic Review, 51, pp. 717725.Google Scholar
Noy, I. (2004), ‘Financial liberalization, prudential supervision, and the onset of banking crises’, Emerging Markets Review, 5, pp. 341359.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Peek, J. and Rosengren, E.S. (2000), ‘Implications of the globalization of the banking sector: the Latin American experience’, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston New England Economic Review, September-October, pp. 4562.Google Scholar
Rajan, R. and Zingales, L. (1998), ‘Financial dependence and growth’, American Economic Review, 88, 3, pp. 393410.Google Scholar
Ramos, A. (1998), ‘Capital structures and portfolio composition during banking crisis - lessons from Argentina 1995’, IMF Working Paper 98/121.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rojas-Suarez, L. (1998), ‘Early warning indicators of banking crisis: what works for developing countries?’, Research department, Inter-American Development Bank, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
Rojas-Suarez, L. and Weisbrod, S. (1995), Financial Fragilities in Latin America, IMF Occasional Paper No. 132.Google Scholar
Sachs, J., Tornell, A. and Velasco, A. (1996), ‘Financial crises in emerging markets: the lessons from 1995’, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1(1996), pp. 147198.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schumacher, L. (2000), ‘Bank runs and currency runs in a system without a safety net’, Journal of Monetary Economics, 46, 1, pp. 257277.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sheng, A. (1995), Bank restructuring, Washington DC, The World Bank.Google Scholar
Stiglitz, J.E. (1994), ‘The role of state in financial markets’, in Bruno, M. and Pleskovic, B. (eds), Proceedings of the World Bank Annual Conference on Development Economics, Washington DC, World Bank.Google Scholar
Wood, G. (1999), ‘Great crashes in history: have they lessons for today?’, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 15, pp. 98109.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
World Bank (2001), ‘Finance for growth: policy choices in a volatile world’, Policy Research Report, Washington DC.Google Scholar