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A Quantitative Risk Assessment Perspective on the Source Term for the Proposed Nuclear Waste Repository at Yucca Mountain

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  15 February 2011

William M. Murphy ,
B. John Garrick  and
Bruce E. Kirstein
William M. Murphy
Affiliation:
U.S. Nuclear Waste Technical Review Board, Arlington, VA 22201, USA Geological and Environmental Sciences, California State University, Chico, CA 95929, USA
B. John Garrick
Affiliation:
U.S. Nuclear Waste Technical Review Board, Arlington, VA 22201, USA
Bruce E. Kirstein
Affiliation:
U.S. Nuclear Waste Technical Review Board, Arlington, VA 22201, USA
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Abstract

A quantitative risk assessment methodology is outlined for the source term for the proposed geologic repository for high-level nuclear waste at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The methodology involves construction of a logical event tree to identify scenarios for the success or failure of the waste isolation system. Uncertainties in the intervening events between initial conditions and consequences can be quantified using probability distributions for steps along each scenario path. Likelihood is quantified according to the frequencies for each split fraction in the event tree. The result is a calculated probability of frequency curve for the release rate(s) of the modeled radionuclide(s).

Type
Research Article
Information
MRS Online Proceedings Library (OPL) , Volume 1193: Scientific Basis for Nuclear Waste Management XXXIII , 2009 , 185
Copyright
Copyright © Materials Research Society 2009

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