On 24 May 1993, part of the Iberian Peninsula was affected by convective activity concentrated on the eastern side of a low-level thermal boundary which was orientated north–south. A series of storms evolved into a squall line striking at the province of Guadalajara (Central Spain). The southernmost cell of this mesoscale convective system generated a tornado that hit the city of Sigüenza between 1930 and 1940 UTC. This paper has two objectives. The first aim is to investigate the ingredients (buoyancy, wind shear, vertical distribution of moisture content, and synoptic and mesoscale lifting mechanisms) and the atmospheric agents (mid-upper level trough, low level-boundary, convergence zones, etc.) which favour the production of severe storms. The second one is to analyse information provided by operational remote-sensing systems (satellite, radar and lightning) in order to test and evaluate some conceptual models of severe storms in an operational environment. For the first objective, the ingredient-based methodology will be shown to be a valuable operational approach allowing forecasters to focus on the possibility of a severe event using the appropriate diagnostic or prognosis tools. For the second objective, special attention is given to the suitability of conceptual models associated with convective phenomena and the potential value of such models (lightning charge related to wind shear and radar-based multicell conceptual models) for understanding the observed processes. From an operational viewpoint some problems may arise because of the technical characteristics of the equipment, particularly related to radars (e.g. scanning strategy, distance between radar and targets, and radar signal processing and displaying). Possible guidelines for using volumetric radar data (non Doppler) for deep convection monitoring are suggested for rugged and complex topographical regions.

A sequence of Doppler radar observations obtained during the PADRE project is used to identify a region of dry-air intrusion in a frontal system approaching the Alps. The study demonstrates the potential of Doppler radar to provide additional information to forecasters on fine spatial and temporal characteristics of frontal cyclogenesis.

The UK Meteorological office introduced a new bogussing scheme for tropical cyclone (TC) motion prediction in its global model in October 1994 after a series of tests. Before the operational implementation of this scheme, a 19-day period (in August and September 1994) was selected during which both the new and the old schemes were run operationally in parallel for a total of 12 TCs in three ocean basins. Comparisons between the forecast errors of the schemes demonstrated the superiority of the new scheme at all forecast time periods (Heming et al., 1995). This paper presents the results of an investigation into the possible reasons for the improved predictions by the new scheme during this trial period. All three factors of the new scheme (an improved initial positioning of the TC, an imposed steering flow derived from the past 6-h motion of the TC and an empirical vortex structure determined from actual observations and TC warning bulletins) are found to contribute towards the improvement. In particular, a good initial position together with an appropriate steering produce a much better 24-h forecast. For the 48- and 72-h forecasts, the steering flow remains an important factor and the contribution of the vortex structure also becomes significant in some cases. The steering flow appears to be the most crucial factor in determining the accuracy of the model predictions.

Despite considerable improvements in numerical models in recent years, weather events associated with extratropical cyclones continue to present forecasters with a challenge. For most cyclogenesis events model forecasts display, at the least, subtle errors in track and intensity of the system. Occasionally, errors can be significant - a depression can deepen suddenly and unexpectedly, with major implications for wind strength as well as other weather elements. Many of the weather events within extratropical cyclones are essentially mesoscale and, on occasions, a single cyclone can be associated with several simultaneous ‘severe’ events such as gales, heavy rain, snow and thunderstorms. This paper describes how the forecaster can add value to numerical model products by using information from a wide variety of sources such as satellite and radar imagery, as well as by monitoring hourly surface observations. Examples are shown in which the forecaster has to make adjustments to model predictions, reconcile conflicting model guidance, and add the all-important mesoscale detail.

A brief description of the ECWMF Ensemble Prediction System is given, including the method for producing initial perturbations, products and verification, and planned developments.

Surface observations, satellite and radar imagery and cloud-to-ground lightning data are used in an observational study of two cases that produced severe weather in Catalonia (Spain). The first one occurred on 24 August 1993; a squall line crossed Catalonia from west to east producing heavy rain with rates of up to 100 mm h−1 and hail of 7 cm diameter. The observational information provided is a good tool for monitoring the event and issuing a reasonable nowcast. The second case, which occurred on 31 August 1994, was associated with the development of a tornado (F1 in the Fujita scale) as well as hail of up to 5 cm diameter. In this case the convection was almost stationary and no clear signatures of severe weather can be identified from available satellite and radar imagery.

Practical monitoring of the amount of salt spread on the road surface for de-icing purposes is technically difficult, especially if it has to be done in a commercially viable way. Possible solutions to this problem are discussed. As it has become customary to refer to the freezing temperature of a salted road, the physical meaning of such a temperature is scrutinised. It turns out that the meaning and the definition of freezing temperature are not clear, and that it also does not have the significance that is often associated with it. Some experimental results of salt measurements on a road are presented.

Ground-based multi-parameter radar is used to validate and evaluate satellite passive microwave parameters related to rainfall over land. Light precipitation over the southern part of England is considered. The issues of diverse resolutions of radar and satellite data in space and time are investigated, as well as the satellite beam-filling problem, in relation to present passive microwave satellite algorithms related to rainfall over land, and their perceived behaviour. Several statistical analyses are applied and their sensitivities to data integration problems are quantified. Passive microwave parameters are evaluated and compared with each other. It is concluded that for radar passive microwave satellite data intercomparisons, calibrations and validations the time resolution seems to be more important than the spatial resolution, and high-resolution radar can be used operationally to tackle the satellite beam-filling problem. It is found that several passive microwave algorithms have performances very similar to each other.

Freezing rain in the winter of 1995/96 has drawn attention to the severity of black-ice problems on British roads, additional to the normal increased hazards presented to drivers by any form of precipitation. Disruption to traffic was considerable on several days. Weather radar provides improved nowcasting, for both winter and summer conditions, where available real time directly to highway engineers, but this is not yet generally the case in England and Wales. New developments from the Meteorological Office offer improved possibilities at reasonable costs.

A comparison between potential vorticity (PV) fields and water vapour imagery shows a close relationship in the region of the polar front. Examples are given showing the nature of this relationship and how a mis-match between the PV and the imagery can be used to detect errors in model analyses and forecasts. The nature of the relationship varies according to the synoptic situation and some of the possible pitfalls encountered by not applying additional checks using model humidity or ‘pseudo imagery’ fields are illustrated.

A statistical verification of a number of forecast icing algorithms is presented. The algorithms are based on gridded forecasts of temperature and humidity from the global model of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts. This study was undertaken with the use of a database of pilot reports issued from the Winter Icing and Storm Program and collected between 1993 and 1995 over the USA. The results are presented both in terms of percentage of detection and in terms of total surface of the forecast. They highlight the difficulty of having to make a choice between those two criteria. Taking into account vertical velocity in the algorithms reduces the percentage of detection, but the area where icing is forecast decreases to an even higher extent.

In an attempt to improve short-range weather predictions in Central Europe, a research project was carried out in Austria which involves adapting the WELS weather prediction system to the Central European environment. This PC-based system is currently in operational use in parts of the United States, chiefly in support of winter highway maintenance operations. The system rests upon the concept of hybrid modelling: an independent, grid-based mesoscale forecast model, integrating the full set of prognostic equations, delivers a prediction which can, in combination with topographic properties, be visualised by a Graphical User Interface (GUI). This post-processing tool seems to have a promising future, especially because it includes the opportunity of adjusting the output of the prediction model; also, locally generated observations can be incorporated into the forecasting process. The use of the forecast-manipulation facilities is appropriate if the prediction seems to be off-track; the time-consuming rerun of the entire forecast model in the case of derailing predictions can be avoided.

This brief paper further develops the objective front-plotting methodology described in Hewson (1996), to enable the tips of frontal wave cyclones to also be objectively identified. The method embraces a new definition of frontal waves, but is analogous to operational practice in that these waves are located where cold and warm fronts join. It is suggested that for the early stages of cyclonic development the new methodology will perform better than those previously published.

It is known that topography is an important factor controlling the variation of road surface temperature (RST). In order to explore possible relationships between RST and topography, the authors used Thermal Mapping data obtained by a vehicle-mounted thermometer in a mountainous area in Nevada, USA, under different weather conditions in December 1994. The data were validated against the measurements of road surface sensors. After that, a step-wise regression technique is employed to find out possible statistic relationships between RST and altitude at different surveying routes. It was found that the relationships exhibited different characteristics in different climate domains and under different weather types. In most cases, the relationships were non-linear. In order to obtain more information about the cause of the residuals and the variation, the error of regression fitting is related to near-ground meteorological parameters (air temperature, dew point and wind, etc.). This study proved that Thermal Mapping is a reliable and effective method to display spatial variation of road surface temperature.

An operational lee wave forecasting code is described and tested on a number of actual cases. Although the solution procedure involves a well-known numerical algorithm, its implementation for operational purposes needs to be intelligent and flexible. The technique involves an eigenvalue problem based on the vertical structure equation for stationary, internal gravity waves. Since the orientation of the trapped lee waves is not known a priori, the code solves the eigenvalue problem for a range of wind directions centred on the low-level wind direction and makes a decision as to which direction will have the largest amplitude and most highly trapped lee wave. The amplitude of the lee wave motion depends on the intensity of orographic forcing in a spectral band centred on the resonant wavelength. For complex terrain this is difficult to quantify. Here, it is assumed that the Fourier spectrum of the orography follows a power law in wavenumber and that the wave amplitude is attributed with a ‘wave launching-height’ condition. One of the test cases considered is the notorious ‘Sheffield gale’ of 16 February 1962, and in that case the lee wave code does predict an unusually large-amplitude wave.

A poor forecast of an ex-tropical depression over the UK is examined. The water vapour imagery presented strongly implied an evolution diverging from the operational NWP forecast; it is suggested that such image sequences can be used to monitor upper level flow evolution for early warning of trough disruption.

Analysis of observational data of convective storms in Northern England suggests that the particular combination of effects such as sea breezes, elevated terrain and the presence of large cities has an influence on the initiation and development of convective storms. To study the importance of these effects for the development of convection, a cloud physics model has been initialised with the topography and surface characteristics of Northern England. The model enabled inclusion of three principal influences: sea breezes, topography and urban heat islands. The results suggested that the presence of the Pennines, a north-south orientated ridge, could influence the initiation of convection due to its long sun-facing slopes, and to a lesser degree forced lifting along the slopes. Inclusion of urban heat island effects focused convection downwind of the principal urban areas.

A short review paper is presented for the subject area of air quality modelling. The paper is geared towards equipping new researchers and workers with a basic appreciation for the technical aspects of their field, providing a staging point for further investigation, and highlighting useful source materials. The paper is introduced through a discussion of the philosophical and practical implications regarding mathematical air quality modelling. A critique of relevant mathematical modelling techniques is presented and includes a treatment of Box, Gaussian, Eulerian, Lagrangian and Particle modelling approaches. Conclusions on the future of mathematical air quality modelling are drawn.

A knowledge of minimum temperature during winter and maximum temperature during summer is a very useful for individuals, as well as for organisations whose workers and machines have to operate in the open, e.g. the armed forces, railways, roadways, tourism, etc. Accurate forecasts of minimum temperature during winter help in the prediction of cold-wave conditions and those of maximum temperature during summer help in the prediction of heat-wave conditions over northern India. Models for forecasting the minimum temperature during December and the maximum temperature during May at Delhi have been developed using surface and upper-air meteorological data from 1984-89. The results of testing the models on independent data from recent years (1994-95) are presented. The results are encouraging and more than 80% of the forecasts are correct within ±2 °C. Possible reasons for large deviations are also investigated.

The dry intrusion is a coherent region of air descending from near tropopause-level. It often has a clear signature in satellite imagery, especially in the water vapour channel, where it is seen as a ‘dark zone’. Parts of dry intrusions are characterised by high potential vorticity and, upon approaching a low-level baroclinic zone, rapid cyclogenesis may be expected to ensue. The leading edges of dry intrusions are defined by cold θw-fronts (moisture fronts). In some places the dry intrusion undercuts rearward-ascending warm air to give an ana-cold front. In other places it overruns the warm air to produce an upper cold θw-front in advance of the surface cold front. Here the dry intrusion is associated with the generation of potential instability and its eventual release as showers or thunderstorms. Identification of dry intrusions provides the forecaster with additional nowcasting evidence that is especially helpful when issuing severe weather warnings. The identification of water vapour dark zones associated with dry intrusions can also form the basis of methods for validating NWP models. Through their relationship to high potential vorticity, they can provide guidance for bogussing NWP models in situations of potentially severe weather. This article provides an introduction to the structure and behaviour of dry intrusions and their relationship to other aspects of extra-tropical cyclones.