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Statistical verification of forecast icing risk indices

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 June 1997

Jean-Marie Carrière ,
Samuel Alquier ,
Christine Le Bot  and
Eric Moulin
Jean-Marie Carrière
Affiliation:
Météo-France, Service Central d'Exploitation de la Météorologie, 42 avenue Gaspard Coriolis, 31057 Toulouse Cedex 01, France
Samuel Alquier
Affiliation:
Météo-France, Service Central d'Exploitation de la Météorologie, 42 avenue Gaspard Coriolis, 31057 Toulouse Cedex 01, France
Christine Le Bot
Affiliation:
Météo-France, Service Central d'Exploitation de la Météorologie, 42 avenue Gaspard Coriolis, 31057 Toulouse Cedex 01, France
Eric Moulin
Affiliation:
Météo-France, Service Central d'Exploitation de la Météorologie, 42 avenue Gaspard Coriolis, 31057 Toulouse Cedex 01, France
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Abstract

A statistical verification of a number of forecast icing algorithms is presented. The algorithms are based on gridded forecasts of temperature and humidity from the global model of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts. This study was undertaken with the use of a database of pilot reports issued from the Winter Icing and Storm Program and collected between 1993 and 1995 over the USA. The results are presented both in terms of percentage of detection and in terms of total surface of the forecast. They highlight the difficulty of having to make a choice between those two criteria. Taking into account vertical velocity in the algorithms reduces the percentage of detection, but the area where icing is forecast decreases to an even higher extent.

Type
Research Article
Information
Meteorological Applications , Volume 4 , Issue 2 , June 1997 , pp. 115 - 130
Copyright
© 1997 Meteorological Society

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