Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-lnqnp Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-26T06:35:19.680Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Weather, climate, and farmers: an overview

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 March 2007

Roger C. Stone  and
Holger Meinke
Roger C. Stone
Affiliation:
Queensland Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries, 203 Tor Street, Toowoomba 4350, Australia Faculty of Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Darling Heights, Toowoomba 4350, Australia Email: [email protected]
Holger Meinke
Affiliation:
Queensland Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries, 203 Tor Street, Toowoomba 4350, Australia Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit, 203 Tor Street, Toowoomba 4350, Australia
Get access

Abstract

Challenges in linking meteorological and climatological information with a wide range of farming decisions are addressed in this paper. In particular, while a considerable amount of weather and climate information is now available for farmers, some types of information under development or already operational, particularly climate forecasting, formation, may be ill-suited for use by farmers for their decision-making. Case studies show it is particularly important for those key farm decisions that are amenable to weather and climate information to be identified clearly so that weather and climate information can be better tailored to suit farming decisions. A participatory approach provides farmers with ownership of the processes associated with development of weather and climate information and facilitates advances in linking climate and weather information and forecasts to farm decisions. Decision-support systems provide useful output when used with farmer discussion groups. Developing appropriate interdisciplinary systems to connect climate, weather, and agronomic information, especially including forecasting systems, with farm management is needed if uptake of weather and climate information by farmers is to be successful. Provision of output of climate change scenario and trend information to aid long-term strategic farm management decisions needs to be considered, especially in regions where more vulnerable farming zones exist.

Keywords

climate and weather forecastingdecision-support systemsparticipative approaches
Type
Research Article
Information
Meteorological Applications , Volume 13 , Issue S1 , December 2006 , pp. 7 - 20
Copyright
Royal Meteorological Society

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Abler, D. G. & Shortle, J. S. 2000 Climate change and agriculture in the mid-Atlantic region. Clim. Res. 14: 185–194.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Abler, D. G., Shortle, J., Carmichael, J. & Horan, R. 2000 Climate change, agriculture, and water quality in the Chesapeake Bay region. Clim. Change 55 (3): 339–359.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Amissah-Arthur, A. 2000 Need for indicators in targeting climate forecasts: climatic risk and income diversification. In: Proceedings of the International Forum on Climate Prediction, Agriculture and Development, IRI_CW/00/1. Palisades, NY: International Institute for Climate Prediction, pp. 291–296.Google Scholar
Amissah-Arthur, A., Jagtap, S. & Rosenzweig, C. 2002 Spatio-temporal effects of El Niño events on rainfall and maize yield in Kenya. Int. J. Climatol. 22: 1849–1860.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carberry, P., Hammer, G. L., Meinke, H. & Bange, M. 2000 The potential value of seasonal climate forecasting in ma naging cropping systems. In: Hammer, G. L., Nicholls, N. & Mitchell, C. (eds.), Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems: The Australian Experience. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Kluwer, pp. 167–181.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carter, J., Hall, W., Brook, K., McKeon, G., Day, K. & Paull, C. 2000 Aussie GRASS: Australian grassland and rangeland assessment by spatial simulation. In: Hammer, G. L., Nicholls, N. & Mitchell, C. (eds.), Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems: The Australian Experience. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Kluwer, pp. 329–351.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cash, D. W. & Buizer, J. 2005 Knowledge–action systems for seasonal to interannual climate forecasting: summary of a workshop. Report to the Roundtable on Science and Technology for Sustainability. Washington, DC: National Research Council of the National Academies, National Academies Press, 32pp.Google Scholar
Changnon, D. 2000 Who used and benefited from El Niño forecasts? In: Changnon, S. A. (ed.), El Niño 1997–1998. The Climate Event of the Century. New York: Oxford University Press, pp. 109–135.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clark, J. 2002 North Star farmer and grazier doubles yield and profits using climate forecasting. In: Stone, R. C. & Gearing, A. (eds.), Queensland Climate Diary 2003–2004. Queensland Government, Department of Primary Industries. Brisbane, Queensland, Australia: Climate Diary Pty Ltd., p. 38.Google Scholar
Cliffe, N., Chapman, V. & Nelson, R. 1999 A twisted tale of workshop evaluation: can we do better? In: Long, P., Donaghy, P. & Grimes, J. (eds.) 2020 Vision—Extension into the New Millennium. Proceedings of the 2nd Central Queensland Extension Forum, Conference and Workshop Series QC99002. Brisbane, Queensland, Australia: Department of Primary Industries.Google Scholar
CLIMAG 2001 Newsletter of the Climate Variability in Agriculture R&D Program (CVAP), 5 May 2001. Canberra, Australia: Land and Water Resources Research and Development Corporation (LWRRDC).Google Scholar
Cox, P. 1996 Some issues in the design of agricultural decision support systems. Agric. Syst. 52: 355–381.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Drosdowsky, W. & Allan, R. 2000 The potential for improved statistical seasonal climate forecasts. In: Hammer, G. L. Nicholls, N. & Mitchell, C. (eds.), Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems: The Australian Experience. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Kluwer, pp. 77–87.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Everingham, Y. L., Muchow, R. C., Stone, R. C., Inman-Bamber, G., Singels, A. & Bezuidenhout, C. N. 2002 Enhanced risk management and decision-making capability across the sugarcane industry value chain based on seasonal climate forecasts. Agric. Syst. 74 (3): 459–477.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fankhauser, S., Smith, J. B. & Tol, R. S. J. 1999 Weathering climate change: some simple rules to guide adaptation decisions. Ecol. Econ. 30: 67–78.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gadgil, S., Seshagiri Rao, P. R. & Narahari, K. 2002 Use of climate information for farm-level decision-making: rainfed groundnut in southern India. Agric. Syst. 74 (3): 431–457.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hammer, G. L., Holzworth, D. P. & Stone, R. C. 1996 The value of skill in seasonal climate forecasting to wheat crop management in a region with high climatic variability. Aust. J. Agric. Res. 47: 717–737.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hammer, G. L. 2000 A general systems approach to applying seasonal climate forecasts. In: Hammer, G. L., Nicholls, N. & Mitchell, C. (eds.), Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems: The Australian Experience. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Kluwer, pp. 51–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hammer, G. L., Nicholls, N. & Mitchell, C. (eds.) 2000 Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems: The Australian Experience. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Kluwer, pp. 329–350.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hammer, G. L., Hansen, J. W., Phillips, J. G., Mjelde, J. W., Hill, H., Love, A. & Potgieter, A. 2001 Advances in application of climate prediction in agriculture. Agric. Syst. 70 (2/3): 515–553.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hansen, J. W. 2002a Applying seasonal climate prediction to agricultural production. Agric. Syst. 74 (3): 305–307.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hansen, J. W. 2002b Realising the potential benefits of climate prediction to agriculture: issues, approaches, challenges. Agric. Syst. 74 (3): 309–330.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hill, H. S. J., Butler, D., Fuller, S. W., Hammer, G. L., Holzworth, D., Love, H. A., Meinke, H., Mjelde, J. W., Park, J. & Rosenthal, W. 2001 Effects of seasonal climate variability and the use of climate forecasts on wheat supply in the United States, Australia, and Canada. In: Rosenzweig, C. (ed.), Impacts of El Niño and Climate Variability on Agriculture. ASA Special Publication Number 63. Madison, WI: ASA, CSSA, SSSA, pp. 101–123.Google Scholar
Ingram, K. T., Roncoli, M. C. & Kirshen, P. H. 2002 Opportunities and constraints for farmers of west Africa to use seasonal precipitation forecasts with Burkina Faso as a case study. Agric. Syst. 74 (3): 331–349.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jagtap, S. S., Jones, J. W., Hildebrand, P., Letson, D., O'Brien, J. J., Podesta, G., Zierden, D. & Zazueta, F. 2003 Responding to stakeholder's demands for climate information: from research to applications in Florida. Agric. Syst. 74: 415–430.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Katz, R. & Murphy, A. H. 1987 Forecast value: prototype decision-making models. In: Katz, R. & Murphy, A. H. (eds.), Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, pp. 183–218.Google Scholar
Keating, B. A. & McCown, R. L. 2001 Advances in farming systems analysis and intervention. Agric. Syst. 70 (2/3): 555–579.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Keating, B. A., Asseng, S., Brown, S., Carberry, P. S., Chapman, S., Dimes, J. P., Freebairn, D. M., Hammer, G. L., Hargreaves, J. N. G., Hochman, Z., Holzworth, D., Huth, N. I., Meinke, H., McCown, R. L., Mclean, G., Probert, M. E., Robertson, M. J., Silburn, M., Smith, C. J., Snow, V., Verburg, K. & Wang, E. 2003 The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM): its history and current capability. Eur. J. Agron. 18 (3): 267–288.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lemnos, M. C., Finan, T. J., Fox, R. W., Nelson, D. R. & Tucker, J. 2002 The use of seasonal climate forecasting in policymaking: lessons from Northeast Brazil. Clim. Change 55: 479–501.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McCown, R. L., Wafula, B. M, Mohammed, L., Ryan, J. G. & Hargreaves, J. N. G. 1991 Assessing the value of a seasonal rainfall predictor to agronomic decisions: The case of response farming in Kenya. In: Muchow, R. C. & Bellamy, J. A. (eds.), Climatic Risk in Crop Production: Models and Management in the Semi-Arid Tropics and Subtropics. Wallingford, CT: CAB International, pp. 383–409.Google Scholar
McCown, R. L., Hammer, G. L., Hargreaves, J. N. G., Holzwo rth, D. P. & Freebairn, D. M. 1996 APSIM: a novel software system for model development, model testing, and simulation in agricultural research. Agric. Syst. 50: 255–271.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McCown, R. L., Hochman, Z. & Carberry, P. S. 2002 Probing the enigma of the decision support system for farmers: learning from experience and from theory. Agric. Syst. 74 (1): 1–10.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Manton, M. J., Brindaban, P. S., Gadgil, S., Hammer, G. L., Hansen, J. & Jones, J. W. 2000, Implementation of a CLIMAG demonstration project. In: Sivakumar, M. V. K. (ed.), Proceedings of the START/WMO International Workshop ‘Climate Prediction and Agriculture’, Geneva, Switzerland, 27–29 September 1999. Washington, DC: International START Secretariat, pp. 287–293.Google Scholar
Meinke, H., Baethgen, W. E., Carberry, P. S., Donatelli, M., Hammer, G. L., Selvaraju, R. & Stockle, C. O. 2001 Increasing profits and reducing risks in crop production using participatory systems simulation approaches. Agric. Syst. 70 (1/2): 493–513.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Meinke, H. & Stone, R. C. 2005 Seasonal and inter-annual climate forecasting: the new tool for increasing preparedness to climate variability and change in agricultural planning and operations. Clim. Change 70: 221–253.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Meinke, H., Nelson, R., Kokic, P., Stone, R. C., Selvaraju, R. & Baethgen, W. 2006 Actionable climate knowledge—from analysis to synthesis. Clim. Res. 33: 101–110.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Motha, R. & Stefanski, R. 2006 United States Department of Agriculture's weather and climate information system for operational applications in agriculture (this volume).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Murphy, A. H. 1993 What is a good forecast? An essay on the nature of goodness in weather forecasting. Weather Forecast. 8: 281–293.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Murphy, A. H. 1994 Assessing the economic value of weather forecasts: an overview of methods, results, and issues. Met. Appl. 1: 69–73.Google Scholar
Nelson, R. A., Holzworth, D. P., Hammer, G. L. & Hayman, P. T. 2002 Infusing the use of seasonal climate forecasting into crop management practice in north east Australia using discussion support software. Agric. Syst. 74 (3): 393–414.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nicholls, N. 1991 Advances in long-term weather forecasting. In: Muchow, R. C. & Bellamy, J. A. (eds.), Climatic Risk in Crop Production: Models and Management in the Semi-Arid Tropics and Subtropics. Wallingford, CT: CAB International, pp. 427–444.Google Scholar
Nicholls, N. 2000 Opportunities to improve the use of seasonal climate forecasts. In: Hammer, G. L., Nicholls, N. & Mitchell, C. (eds.), Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems: The Australian Experience. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Kluwer, pp. 309–327.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pannell, D. J., Malcolm, B. & Kingwell, R. S. 2000 Are we risking too much? Perspectives on risk in farm modelling. Agric. Econ. 23: 69–78.Google Scholar
Patt, A. & Gwata, C. 2002 Effective seasonal climate forecast applications: examining constraints for subsistence farmers in Zimbabwe. Global Environ. Change 12: 185–195.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Phillips, J. G., Deane, D., Unganai, L. & Chimeli, A. 2002 Implications of farm-level response to seasonal climate forecasts for aggregate grain production in Zimbabwe. Agric. Syst. 74 (3): 351–369.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Plant, S. 2000 The relevance of seasonal climate forecasting to a rural producer. In: Hammer, G. L., Nicholls, N. & Mitchell, C. (eds.), Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems: The Australian Experience. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Kluwer, pp. 23–29.Google Scholar
Podesta, G., Letson, D., Messina, C., Royce, F., Ferreyra, R. A., Jones, J., Hansen, J., Llovet, I., Grondona, M. & O'Brien, J. J. 2002 Use of ENSO-related climate information in agricultural decision making in Argentina: a pilot experience. Agric. Syst. 74 (3): 371–392.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Risby, J., Kandlikar, M., Dowlatabadi, H. & Graetz, D. 1999 Scale, context, and decision making in agricultural adaptation to climate variability and change. Mitigat. Adapt. Strategies Global Change 4 (2): 136–165.Google Scholar
Rogers, C. E. & McCarty, J. P. 2000 Climate change and ecosystems of the mid-Atlantic region. Clim. Res. 14: 235–244.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rosenzweig, C. & Parry, M. L. 1994 Potential impact of climate change on world food supply. Nature 367: 133–138.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rosenzweig, C., Iglesias, A., Yang, X. B., Epstein, P. R. & Chivian, E. 2000 Climate Change and U.S. Agriculture: The Impacts of Warming and Extreme Weather Events on Productivity, Plant Diseases, and Pests. Boston: Center for Health and the Global Environment, Harvard Medical School, 47 pp.Google Scholar
Ruben, R., Kruseman, G., Kuyvenhoven, A. & Brons, J. 2000 Climate variability, risk-coping and agrarian policies: farm households’ supply response under variable rainfall conditions. Report for NOP Project ‘Impact of Climate Change on Drylands (ICCD)’, Wageningen, The Netherlands, October 2000.Google Scholar
Schneider, S. H., Easterling, W. E. & Mearns, L. O. 2000 Adaptation: sensitivity to natural variability, agent assumptions and dynamic climate changes. Clim. Change 45: 203–221.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Selvaraju, R., Meinke, H. & Hansen, J. 2004 Approaches allowing smallholder farmers in India to benefit from seasonal climate forecasting. In: Proceedings of the 4th International Crop Science Congress on ‘New Directions for a Diverse Planet’, 26 September – 1 October 2004, Brisbane, Australia (published on CDROM). Available at www.cropscience.org.au.Google Scholar
Selvaraju, R, Meinke, H. & Hansen, J. W. 2006 Applying climate forecasts and crop simulation to enhance the resilience of southern India's dryland cropping systems. Agric. Syst., in press.Google Scholar
Sivakumar, M. V. K. 2002 Opening remarks. In: Sivakumar, M. V. K. (ed.), Proceeding of the Inter-Regional Workshop ‘Improving Agrometeorological Bulletins’, October 2001, Bridgetown, Barbados, pp. 15–19.Google Scholar
Sonka, S. T., Mjelde, J. W., Lamb, P. J., Hollinger, S. E. & Dixon, B. L. 1987 Valuing climate forecast information. J. Clim. Appl. Met. 26: 1080–1091.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stern, P. C. & Easterling, W. E. (eds.) 1999 Making Climate Forecasts Matter. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.Google Scholar
Stewart, J. I. 1991 Principles and performance of response farming. In: Muchow, R. C. & Bellamy, J. A. (eds.), Climatic Risk in Crop Production: Models and Management in the Semi-Arid Tropics and Subtropics. Wallingford, CT: CAB International, pp. 361–382.Google Scholar
Stone, R. C., Hammer, G. L. & Marcussen, T. 1996 Prediction of global rainfall probabilities using phases of the Southern Oscillation Index. Nature 384: 252–255.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stone, R. C. & Meinke, H. 1999 Predictions of Australian wheat yields in 1997 and 1998 using climate forecast systems derived from Pacific Ocean indicators. In: Proceedings of the Twenty-Third Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop, Miami, FL, 26–30 October 1998. Washington, DC: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce, pp. 66–70.Google Scholar
Stone, R. C. & Meinke, H. 2005 Operational seasonal forecasting of crop performance. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 360: 2109–2124.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Weiss, A., Van Crowder, L. & Bernardi, M. 2000 Communicating agrometeorological information to farming communities. Agric. Forest. Met. 103: 185–196.CrossRefGoogle Scholar