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Utilising a farm-level decision model to help prioritise future climate prediction research needs

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 June 1997

James W Mjelde ,
Troy N Thompson ,
Clair J Nixon  and
Peter J Lamb
James W Mjelde
Affiliation:
Department of Agricultural Economics, A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA
Troy N Thompson
Affiliation:
Halliburton Energy Services, 5151 San Felipe, 1934 Halliburton Center, Houston, TX 77056, USA
Clair J Nixon
Affiliation:
Department of Accounting, Texas A & M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA
Peter J Lamb
Affiliation:
Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies and School of Meteorology, The University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK 73019, USA
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Abstract

A whole-farm-level decision model is used to examine the impact of the type of decisions producers make on the value of seasonal climate forecasts. Results suggest that precipitation forecasts directed towards crop mix and applied nitrogen level decisions would have the largest economic value. Further, the results show that the economic value of climate forecasts cannot be obtained by examining only a small set of decision types. Rather, all decision types must be modelled to value seasonal precipitation forecasts correctly. This occurs because in response to seasonal climate forecasts changes in one type of decision may override the need to change other decision types. Finally, forecasts of precipitation during the crop tasselling and grain filling stages may be more valuable than precipitation forecasts for earlier crop growth periods.

Type
Research Article
Information
Meteorological Applications , Volume 4 , Issue 2 , June 1997 , pp. 161 - 170
Copyright
© 1997 Meteorological Society

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