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Statistical interpretation of NWP products in India

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2002

Parvinder Maini ,
Ashok Kumar ,
S V Singh  and
L S Rathore
Parvinder Maini
Affiliation:
National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Department of Science and Technology, Mausam Bhavan Complex, Lodi Road, New Delhi - 110 003, India
Ashok Kumar
Affiliation:
National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Department of Science and Technology, Mausam Bhavan Complex, Lodi Road, New Delhi - 110 003, India
S V Singh
Affiliation:
National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Department of Science and Technology, Mausam Bhavan Complex, Lodi Road, New Delhi - 110 003, India
L S Rathore
Affiliation:
National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Department of Science and Technology, Mausam Bhavan Complex, Lodi Road, New Delhi - 110 003, India
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Abstract

Although numerical weather prediction (NWP) models provide an objective forecast, poor representation of local topography and other features in these models, necessitates statistical interpretation (SI) of NWP products in terms of local weather. The Perfect Prognostic Method (PPM) is one of the techniques for accomplishing this. At the National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, PPM models for precipitation (quantitative, probability, yes/no) and maximum/minimum temperatures are developed for monsoon season by using analyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The SI forecast is then obtained by using these PPM models and output from the operational NWP model at the Center. Direct model output (DMO) obtained from the NWP model and the SI forecast are verified against the actual observations. The present study shows the verification scores obtained during the 1997 monsoon season for 10 locations in India. The results show that the SI forecast has good skill and is an improvement over DMO.

Type
Research Article
Information
Meteorological Applications , Volume 9 , Issue 1 , March 2002 , pp. 21 - 31
Copyright
© 2002 Royal Meteorological Society

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