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River flow forecasting using a rainfall disaggregation model incorporating small-scale topographic effects

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  11 September 2001

R Misumi ,
V A Bell  and
R J Moore
R Misumi
Affiliation:
Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, OX10 8BB, UK
V A Bell
Affiliation:
Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, OX10 8BB, UK
R J Moore
Affiliation:
Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, OX10 8BB, UK
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Abstract

River flow forecasting using rainfall predictions from a mesoscale weather prediction model in combination with a physically-based rainfall disaggregation model incorporating small-scale topographic variability is demonstrated. Rainfall predicted by the UK Met Office Mesoscale Model on a 16.8 km grid is disaggregated onto a 2 km grid using a rainfall model which adds the effect of small-scale topography. River flow is calculated by a distributed rainfall-runoff model using the output from the rainfall model. A thunderstorm event on 7 June 1996 over the Brue catchment in Somerset, England is used to evaluate the models. The rainfall model successfully forecasts the band-shaped rainfall field within the catchment and the error in the total amount of flow during the storm is only -12%. An error of -40% in the peak flow is attributed to the treatment of convective clouds in the model.

Type
Research Article
Information
Meteorological Applications , Volume 8 , Issue 3 , September 2001 , pp. 297 - 305
Copyright
© Royal Meteorological Society

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