Rainfall forecasting in tropical-equatorial environments: a case study of the Seychelles zone

Abstract

In tropical-equatorial environments, where weather has a high degree of variability, a reliable weather forecast is an essential decision-making tool. To achieve reliability and accuracy it is important to study both the climatological trends and the elements affecting the meteorological variables of the areas under analysis. A precise weather forecast is not enough, however. The way in which the information is presented to users in weather bulletins is also important. The users need to comprehend the forecasted meteorological synopsis and to draw relevant conclusions. In this case study a Medium Range Forecast model was used (NOAA Air Resources Laboratory MRF) to predict, in statistical form, the likely weather conditions. The verification of the weather forecast scored good results, especially in the shorter period (7 days), showing that this specifically designed weather bulletin was a reliable decision tool. In order to demonstrate the key role of the meteorological information to the decision-maker, an economic estimation of the weather forecasts was carried out.