Detecting and nowcasting cloudiness using near-surface temperatures on winter nights

Abstract

A model to deduce cloudiness from automatic measurements of synoptic and road weather stations during winter nights is introduced. The (height-adjusted) cloud amount of each station can be determined from near-surface temperature measurements and precipitation information only. By using the difference between the air temperature at surface level and the air temperature 2 m above ground, a correlation coefficient is achieved of up to 0.91 between the calculated cloud amount and observations. The model is applied to a dense network in central Switzerland in order to obtain a two-dimensional cloud map by interpolation. With the help of a tracking algorithm, the displacement of cloud patterns is nowcasted. The procedure was tested using data from winter 2003–4. It works successfully with a forecast range up to about 90 minutes. The results are used to predict a change in surface temperature (in cases with changing cloudiness), and thus allow nowcasting of slippery roads or ground frost.