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An objective visibility analysis and very-short-range forecasting system

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 June 1998

B J Wright  and
N Thomas
B J Wright
Affiliation:
Forecasting Products, Meteorological Office, London Road, Bracknell, Berkshire, RG12 2SZ, UK
N Thomas
Affiliation:
Forecasting Products, Meteorological Office, London Road, Bracknell, Berkshire, RG12 2SZ, UK
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Abstract

An objective Visibility Analysis/Forecast System has been developed as part of Nimrod, the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) very-short-range forecasting system. The analysis blends satellite imagery and surface observations with a one-hour forecast using a variational algorithm. An extrapolation forecast is produced by adding UKMO Mesoscale Model (MM) trends to the analysis values. This is merged with persistence (the analysis) and MM values, to produce the final forecast. Results from eight case studies are presented, showing the potential of the system, which demonstrates significant improvements on the MM predictions (the currently available objective forecast method).

Type
Research Article
Information
Meteorological Applications , Volume 5 , Issue 2 , June 1998 , pp. 157 - 181
Copyright
© 1998 Meteorological Society

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