The operational Australian ultraviolet index forecast 1997

Abstract

The Cooperative Research Centre for Southern Hemisphere Meteorology in collaboration with the Bureau of Meteorology has developed an ultraviolet index (UVI) forecast system to support the Australian UVI forecast issued to the public by the Bureau of Meteorology. In an effort to alert the public to the possibility of harmful levels of ultraviolet radiation the UVI forecast has been issued daily as part of the meteorological weather report since spring 1996. The predicted UVI indicates the amount of ultraviolet radiation that will reach the Earth's surface at local noon next day. The forecast includes the effects of cloud cover. The global clear sky UVI is calculated using a two-stream radiative transfer model and a deterministic ozone forecast scheme. The system utilises meteorological fields from the global numerical weather forecast model of the Bureau of Meteorology. This paper describes the UVI forecast system, and its results are compared with observational data from the Australian Radiation Laboratory for several Australian cities for the period January–December 1997. Possible improvements are outlined since the UVI forecast system is the subject of ongoing development.