In this paper, we study the numerical approximation of a size-structured population modelwhose dependency on the environment is managed by the evolution of a vital resource. Weshow that this is a difficult task: some numerical methods are not suitable for along-time integration. We analyze the reasons for the failure.

Two main approaches have been considered for modelling the dynamics of the SIS model oncomplex metapopulations, i.e, networks of populations connected by migratory flows whoseconfigurations are described in terms of the connectivity distribution of nodes (patches)and the conditional probabilities of connections among classes of nodes sharing the samedegree. In the first approach migration and transmission/recovery process alternatesequentially, and, in the second one, both processes occur simultaneously. Here we followthe second approach and give a necessary and sufficient condition for the instability ofthe disease-free equilibrium in generic networks under the assumption of limited (orfrequency-dependent) transmission. Moreover, for uncorrelated networks and under theassumption of non-limited (or density-dependent) transmission, we give a bounding intervalfor the dominant eigenvalue of the Jacobian matrix of the model equations around thedisease-free equilibrium. Finally, for this latter case, we study numerically theprevalence of the infection across the metapopulation as a function of the patchconnectivity.

Approximate aggregation techniques consist of introducing certain approximations thatallow one to reduce a complex system involving many coupled variables obtaining a simplerʽʽaggregated systemʼʼ governed by a few variables. Moreover, they give results that allowone to extract information about the complex original system in terms of the behavior ofthe reduced one. Often, the feature that allows one to carry out such a reduction is thepresence of different time scales in the system under consideration. In this work we dealwith aggregation techniques in stochastic discrete time models and their application tothe study of multiregional models, i.e., of models for an age structured populationdistributed amongst different spatial patches and in which migration between the patchesis usually fast with respect to the demography (reproduction-survival) in each patch.Stochasticity in population models can be of two kinds: environmental and demographic. Wereview the formulation and the main properties of the dynamics of the different models forpopulations evolving in discrete time and subjected to the effects of environmental anddemographic stochasticity. Then we present different stochastic multiregional models withtwo time scales in which migration is fast with respect to demography and we review themain relationships between the dynamics of the original complex system and the aggregatedsimpler one. Finally, and within the context of models with environmental stochasticity inwhich the environmental variation is Markovian, we make use these techniques to analyzequalitatively the behavior of two multiregional models in which the original complexsystem is intractable. In particular we study conditions under which the population goesextinct or grows exponentially.

In this paper we have considered a nonlinear and nonautonomous stage-structured HIV/AIDSepidemic model with an imperfect HIV vaccine, varying total population size anddistributed time delay to become infectious due to intracellular delay between initialinfection of a cell by HIV and the release of new virions. Here, we have established somesufficient conditions on the permanence and extinction of the disease by using inequalityanalytical technique. We have obtained the explicit formula of the eventual lower boundsof infected persons. We have introduced some new threshold valuesR 0 and R ∗ and further obtainedthat the disease will be permanent when R 0 > 1 and thedisease will be going to extinct when R ∗ < 1. ByLyapunov functional method, we have also obtained some sufficient conditions for globalasymptotic stability of this model. The aim of the analysis of this model is to trace theparameters of interest for further study, with a view to informing and assistingpolicy-maker in targeting prevention and treatment resources for maximumeffectiveness.

The CDC launched the National Plan to Eliminate Syphilis from the USA in October 1999[4]. In order to reach this goal, a goodunderstanding of the transmission dynamics of the disease is necessary. Based on a SIRSmodel Breban et al. [3] providedsome evidence that supports the feasibility of the plan proving that no recurringoutbreaks should occur for syphilis. We study in this work a syphilis model that includespartial immunity and vaccination. This model suggests that a backward bifurcation verylikely occurs for the real-life estimated epidemiological parameters for syphilis. Thismay explain the resurgence of syphilis after mass treatment [21]. Occurrence of backward bifurcation brings a new challenge for theplan of the CDC’s –striking a balance between treatment of early infection, vaccinationdevelopment and health education. Our models suggest that the development of an effectivevaccine, as well as health education that leads to enhanced biological and behavioralprotection against infection in high-risk populations, are among the best ways to achievethe goal of elimination of syphilis in the USA.

For an SI type endemic model with one host and two parasite strains, we study thestability of the endemic coexistence equilibrium, where the host and both parasite strainsare present. Our model, which is a system of three ordinary differential equations,assumes complete cross-protection between the parasite strains and reduced fertility andincreased mortality of infected hosts. It also assumes that one parasite strain isexclusively vertically transmitted and cannot persists just by itself. We give severalsufficient conditions for the equilibrium to be locally asymptotically stable. One of themis that the horizontal transmission is of density-dependent (mass-action) type. If thehorizontal transmission is of frequency-dependent (standard) type, we show that, undercertain conditions, the equilibrium can be unstable and undamped oscillations can occur.We support and extend our analytical results by numerical simulations and bytwo-dimensional plots of stability regions for various pairs of parameters.

A simple model of biological evolution of community food webs is introduced. This modelis based on the niche model, which is known to generate model food webs that are verysimilar to empirical food webs. The networks evolve by speciation and extinction.Co-extinctions due to the loss of all prey species are found to play a major role indetermining the longterm shape of the food webs. The central aim is to design the modelsuch that the characteristic parameters of the niche model food webs remain in realisticintervals. When the mutation rule is chosen accordingly, it is found that food webs with acomplex, biologically meaningful structure emerge and that the statistics of extinctionevents agrees well with that observed in the paleontological data.

In order to study the impact of fishing on a grouper population, we propose in this paperto model the dynamics of a grouper population in a fishing territory by using structuredmodels. For that purpose, we have integrated the natural population growth, the fishing,the competition for shelter and the dispersion. The dispersion was considered as aconsequence of the competition. First we prove, that the grouper stocks may be lesssensitive to the removal of large male individuals if female population are totallyprotected. Second, we show that fishing does not disturb the demographic structure of thepopulation. Finally, we prove that female selective fisheries have the potential ofdrastically reduce reproductive rates. We also prove that male fishing decreasescompetition and then increases the total population number.

An optimal control problem is studied for a predator-prey system of PDE, with a logisticgrowth rate of the prey and a general functional response of the predator. The controlfunction has two components. The purpose is to maximize a mean density of the two speciesin their habitat. The existence of the optimal solution is analyzed and some necessaryoptimality conditions are established. The form of the optimal control is found in someparticular cases.

Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death among individuals infected with thehepatitis B virus (HBV). The study of the joint dynamics of HBV and TB present formidablemathematical challenges due to the fact that the models of transmission are quitedistinct. We formulate and analyze a deterministic mathematical model which incorporatesof the co-dynamics of hepatitis B and tuberculosis. Two sub-models, namely: HBV-only andTB-only sub-models are considered first of all. Unlike the HBV-only sub-model, which has aglobally-asymptotically stable disease-free equilibrium whenever the associatedreproduction number is less than unity, the TB-only sub-model undergoes the phenomenon ofbackward bifurcation, where a stable disease-free equilibrium co-exists with a stableendemic equilibrium, for a certain range of the associated reproduction number less thanunity. Thus, for TB, the classical requirement of having the associated reproductionnumber to be less than unity, although necessary, is not sufficient for its elimination.It is also shown, that the full HBV-TB co-infection model undergoes a backward bifurcationphenomenon. Through simulations, we mainly find that i) the two diseases will co-existwhenever their partial reproductive numbers exceed unity; (ii) the increased progressionrate due to exogenous reinfection from latent to active TB in co-infected individuals mayplay a significant role in the rising prevalence of TB; and (iii) the increasedprogression rates from acute stage to chronic stage of HBV infection have increased theprevalence levels of HBV and TB prevalences.

We have carried out a polysystem analysis of the population dynamics by using a varietyof hypotheses and their respective models based on different system interpretations of thephenomenon under investigation. Each of the models supplements standard dynamic equationsfor explaining the effects observed. A qualitative model-based analysis is made of theage-specific male mortality for a Siberian industrial city. The study revealed thetendencies for background mortality to increase with age and over time, whichcharacterizes in an integral manner the influence of socio-ecological factors on thedecline in population viability. It is shown that these tendencies are similar fordifferent years and for different population age groups.