We investigate the effects of memory on the stability of evolutionary selection dynamics based on a multinomial logit model in a simple asset pricing model with heterogeneous beliefs. Whether memory is stabilizing or destabilizing depends in general on three key factors: (1) whether or not the weights on past observations are normalized; (2) the ecology or composition of forecasting rules, in particular the average trend extrapolation factor and the spread or diversity in biased forecasts; and (3) whether or not costs for information gathering of economic fundamentals have to be incurred.

In this paper we study the role of bank capital adequacy requirements in the transmission of aggregate productivity shocks. We identify a gap between the empirical and the theoretical work that studies the “credit crunch” effects of these requirements, and how they can work as a financial accelerator that amplifies business cycles. This gap arises because the empirical work faces some difficulties in identifying the effects of capital requirements, whereas the theory still lacks a structural framework that can address these difficulties. We bridge that gap by providing a general equilibrium theoretical framework that allows us to study this financial accelerator. The main insight we obtain is that the “credit crunch” and financial accelerator effects are rather weak, which confirms the findings of existing empirical work. Additionally, by developing a structural framework, we are able to provide an explanation for this result.

This paper proposes a multivariate unobserved-components model to simultaneously decompose the real GDP for each of the G-7 countries into its respective trend and cycle components. In contrast to previous literature, our model allows for explicit correlation between all the contemporaneous trend and cycle shocks. We find that all the G-7 countries have highly variable stochastic permanent components for output, even once we allow for structural breaks. We also find that common restrictions on the correlations between trend and cycle shocks are rejected by the data. In particular, we find that correlations across permanent and transitory shocks are important both within and across countries.

Using a disaggregated Marshallian macroeconomic model, this paper investigates how the adoption of a set of “free market reforms” may affect the economic growth rate of South Africa. Our findings suggest that the institution of the proposed policy reforms would yield substantial growth in aggregate annual real GDP. The resulting annual GDP growth rate could range from 5.3% to 9.8%, depending on which variant of the reform policies was implemented.

“Good policy” and “good luck” have been identified as two of the possible drivers of the “Great Moderation,” but their relative importance is still widely debated. This paper investigates the role played by equilibrium selection under indeterminacy in the assessment of their relative merits. We contrast the outcomes of counterfactual simulations conditional on the “continuity” selection strategy–largely exploited by the literature–with those obtained with a novel “sign restriction” based strategy. Our results suggest that conclusions achieved under “continuity” are not necessarily robust to the selection of different–still economically sensible–equilibria. According to our simulations, the switch to a hawkish systematic monetary policy may very well induce an increase in output volatility. Hence, our sign restriction–selection strategy “resurrects” the inflation–output policy tradeoff.

This note extends the findings of Benhabib and Rusticchini [Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 18, 807–813 (1994)], who provide a class of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models whose solution is characterized by a constant savings rate. We show that this class of models may be interpreted as a standard–representative agent DSGE model with costly adjustment of capital.

This article analyzes the consequences of environmental tax policy under public debt stabilization constraint. A public sector of pollution abatement is financed by a tax on pollutant emissions and/or by public debt. At the same time, households can also invest in private pollution abatement activities. We show that the economy may be characterized by an environmental-poverty trap if debt is too large or public abatement is not sufficiently efficient with respect to the private one. However, there exists a level of public abatement and debt at which a stable steady state is optimal.