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WHY DO RISK PREMIA VARY OVER TIME? A THEORETICAL INVESTIGATION UNDER HABIT FORMATION

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  13 February 2012

Bianca De Paoli  and
Pawel Zabczyk
Bianca De Paoli*
Affiliation:
Centre for Economic Performance London School of Economics and Bank of England
Pawel Zabczyk
Affiliation:
European Central Bank and Bank of England
*
Address correspondence to: Bianca De Paoli, Monetary Analysis HO-2, Bank of England, Threadneedle St., London EC2R 8AH, UK; e-mail: [email protected].
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Abstract

We study the dynamics of risk premia in a model with external habit formation and highlight the significance of “recession predictability”. Although under the specification of Campbell and Cochrane, [Journal of Political Economy 107, 205–251 (1999)] the equity risk premium is countercyclical because increases in risk aversion are reinforced by rising recession risks, this need not be the case more generally. We show analytically that in endowment economies procyclical recession expectations can outweigh countercyclical changes in risk aversion, generating counterfactual risk-premium behavior. However, allowing shocks or habits to be sufficiently persistent, or explicitly accounting for the impact of habits on consumption, suffices to generate countercyclical recession risks and risk premia.

Keywords

Risk PremiumHabitsCountercyclicalityMacrofinance
Type
Articles
Information
Macroeconomic Dynamics , Volume 16 , Supplement S2: Time-Varying Modeling with Macroeconomic and Financial Data , September 2012 , pp. 252 - 266
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2012

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