Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-dh8gc Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-14T05:17:31.294Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

“TIME-RELEASE” OUTPUT RESPONSES TO PUBLIC EDUCATION EXPENDITURES

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  11 January 2021

Bebonchu Atems
Affiliation:
Clarkson University
William Blankenau*
Affiliation:
Kansas State University
*
Address correspondence to: William Blankenau, Department of Economics, Kansas State University, 327 Waters Hall, Manhattan, Kansas 55606-4001, USA. e-mail: [email protected]. Phone: 785-532-6340.
Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Core share and HTML view are not available for this content. However, as you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.

This paper argues that output can respond to public education spending in a delayed and persistent manner through human capital accumulation. We refer to this as a “time-release” response, reflecting that the output response grows as students exposed to increased expenditures sequentially enter the labor market. We first develop and calibrate a stochastic overlapping generations model to formalize the propagation of spending shocks over a long time horizon. We then empirically explore this time-release aspect of shocks to government education expenditures on output using US state-level data for the period 1963–2016 and a panel structural vector autoregression methodology. Consistent with the model, our empirical results show that the dynamic response of output to shocks to government education expenditures is positive, significant, and long-lasting.

Type
Articles
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BY
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright
© Cambridge University Press 2021

References

REFERENCES

Adjemian, S., Bastani, H., Juillard, M., Karamé, F., Maih, J., Mihoubi, F., Perendia, G., Pfeifer, J., Ratto, M. and Villemot, S. (2011) Dynare: Reference manual, Version 4. Dynare Working Papers, 1, CEPREMAP.Google Scholar
Arcalean, C. and Schiopu, I. (2010) Public versus private investment and growth in a hierarchical education system. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 34, 604622.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Arellano, M. and Bover, O. (1995) Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models. Journal of Econometric 68, 2951.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Atems, B. (2019) The effect of government spending shocks: Evidence from U.S. states. Regional Science and Urban Economics 74, 6580.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Atems, B. and Jones, J. (2015) Income inequality and economic growth: A panel VAR approach. Empirical Economics 48, 15411561.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Atems, B. and Melichar, M. (2019) Do global crude oil market shocks have differential effects on U.S. regions? Macroeconomic Dynamics 23, 19782008.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Auerbach, A. and Gorodnichenko, Y. (2013) Output spillovers from fiscal policy. American Economic Review 103, 141–46.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Auerbach, A. and Gorodnichenko, Y. (2012) Measuring the output responses to fiscal policy. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 4, 127.Google Scholar
Barcellos, S. (2010) The Dynamics of Immigration and Wages. Rand Working Paper WR-755.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barro, R. (1989) The neoclassical approach to fiscal policy. In: Barro, R. (ed.), Modern Business Cycle Theory. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press and Basil Blackwell Publishers.Google Scholar
Barro, R. and Sala-i-Martin, X. (2004) Economic Growth. Cambridge: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Baxter, M. and King, R. G. (1993) Fiscal policy in general equilibrium. American Economic Review 83, 315334.Google Scholar
Beetsma, R. and Giuliodori, M. (2011) The effects of government purchases shocks: Review and estimates for the EU. The Economic Journal 121, F4F32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beetsma, R., Giuliodori, M. and Klaassen, F. (2009) Temporal aggregation and SVAR identification, with an application to fiscal policy. Economics Letters 105, 253255.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beetsma, R., Giuliodori, M. and Klaassen, F. (2008) The effects of public spending shocks on trade balances and budget deficits in the European Union. Journal of the European Economic Association 6, 414423.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beetsma, R., Giuliodori, M. and Klaassen, F. (2006) Trade spill-overs of fiscal policy in the European Union: A panel analysis. Economic Policy 21, 640687.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bernanke, B., Gertler, M. and Watson, M. (1997) Systematic monetary policy and the effects of oil price shocks. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1, 91142.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blanchard, O. and Perotti, R. (2002) An empirical characterization of the dynamic effects of changes in government spending and taxes on output. Quarterly Journal of Economics 117, 13291368.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blankenau, W. (2005) Public schooling, college subsidies and growth. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 29, 487507.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blankenau, W. and Simpson, N. (2004) Public education expenditures and growth. Journal of Development Economics 73, 583605.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blankenau, W., Simpson, N. and Tomljanovich, M. (2007) Public education expenditures, taxation, and growth: Linking data to theory. American Economic Review 97, 393397.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blankenau, W. and Youderian, X. (2015) Early childhood education expenditures and the intergenerational persistence of income. Review of Economic Dynamics 18, 334349.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Calomiris, C., Longhofer, S. and Miles, W. (2013) The foreclosure–house price nexus: A panel VAR model for U.S. states, 1981–2009. Real Estate Economics 41, 709746.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carlino, G. and DeFina, R. (1998) The differential regional effects of monetary policy. The Review of Economics and Statistics 80, 572587.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chetty, R., Friedman, J., Hilger, N., Saez, E., Schanzenbach, D. and Yagan, D. (2011) How does your kindergarten classroom affect your earnings? Evidence from project STAR. Quarterly Journal of Economics 126, 15931660.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Chodorow-Reich, G. (2018) Geographic Cross-Sectional Fiscal Spending Multipliers: What Have We Learned? Working Paper.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Christiano, L., Eichenbaum, M. and Evans, C. (1999) Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end? Handbook of Macroeconomics 1, 65148.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Churchill, S., Ugur, M. and Yew, S. (2017) Government education expenditures and economic growth: A meta-analysis. The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics 17, 1935–1690.Google Scholar
Clemens, J. and Miran, S. (2012) Fiscal policy multipliers on subnational government spending. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 4, 4668.Google Scholar
Davis, S. and Haltiwanger, J. (2001) Sectoral job creation and destruction responses to oil price changes. Journal of Monetary Economics 48, 465512.Google Scholar
Devarajan, S., Swaroop, V. and Zou, H. (1996) The composition of public expenditure and economic growth. Journal of Monetary Economics 37, 313344.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Deininger, K. and Squire, L. (1996) A new data set measuring income inequality. The World Bank Economic Review 10, 565591.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eckstein, Z. and Zilcha, I. (1994) The effects of compulsory schooling on growth, income distribution and welfare. Journal of Public Economics 53, 339359.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ellahie, A. and Ricco, G. (2017) Government purchases reloaded: Informational insufficiency and heterogeneity in fiscal VARs. Journal of Monetary Economics 90, 1327.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Feasel, E., Gollapusi, P. and Kumazawa, D. (2017) On the relative importance of demand and supply shocks: A panel VAR study for US states. Applied Economics Letters 24, 13401345.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fernández-Villaverde, J. and Krueger, D. (2011) Consumption and saving over the life cycle: How important are consumer durables. Macroeconomic Dynamics 15, 725770.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gali, J., López-Salido, D. and Vallés, J. (2007) Understanding the effects of government spending on consumption. Journal of the European Economic Association 5, 227270.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gemmell, N., Kneller, R. and Sanz, I. (2011) The timing and persistence of fiscal policy impacts on growth: Evidence from OECD countries. The Economic Journal 121, 3358.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Giordano, R., Momigliano, R. and Perotti, R. (2007) The effects of fiscal policy in Italy: Evidence from a VAR model. European Journal of Political Economy 23, 707733.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Glomm, G. and Ravikumar, B. (1998) Flat-rate taxes, government spending on education, and growth. Review of Economic Dynamics 1, 306325.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gnimassoun, B. and Mignon, V. How do macroeconomic imbalances interact? Evidence from a panel VAR analysis. Macroeconomic Dynamics 20, 17171741.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hamilton, J. (1996) This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship. Journal of Monetary Economics 38, 215220.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Herrera, A. (2018) Oil price shocks, inventories, and macroeconomic dynamics. Macroeconomic Dynamics 22, 620639.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Herrera, A., Lagalo, L. and Wada, T. (2011) Oil price shocks and industrial production: Is the relationship linear?. Macroeconomic Dynamics 15, 472497.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Herrera, A. and Pesavento, E. (2009) Oil price shocks, systematic monetary policy, and the great moderation. Macroeconomic Dynamics 13, 107137.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hoover, J. and Perez, S. (1994) Post hoc ergo propter once more: An evaluation of ‘does monetary policy matter?’ in the spirit of James Tobin. Journal of Monetary Economics 34, 4773.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hyman, J. (2017) Does money matter in the long run? Effects of school spending on educational attainment. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 9, 256280.Google Scholar
Ilzetzki, E., Mendoza, E. and Vegh, C. (2013) How big (small?) are fiscal multipliers? Journal of Monetary Economics 60, 239254.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jackson, C., Johnson, R. and Persico, C. (2016) The effects of school spending on educational and economic outcomes: Evidence from school finance reforms? Quarterly Journal of Economics 131, 157218.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kaganovich, M. and Zilcha, I. (1999) Education, social security and growth. Journal of Public Economics 71, 289309.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Khan, H. and Reza, A. (2017) House prices and government spending shocks. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 49, 12471271.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lagakos, D., Moll, B., Porzio, T., Qian, N. and Schoellman, T. (2018) Life cycle wage growth across countries. Journal of Political Economy 126, 797849.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leeper, E., Walker, T. and Yang, S. (2010) Government investment and fiscal stimulus. Journal of Monetary Economics 57, 10001012.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leeper, E., Walker, T. and Yang, S. (2013) Fiscal foresight and information flows. Econometrica 81, 11151145.Google Scholar
Love, I. and Zicchino, L. (2006) Financial development and dynamic investment behavior: Evidence from panel VAR. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 46, 190210.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mork, K. (1989) Oil and the macroeconomy when prices go up and down: An extension of Hamilton’s results. Journal of Political Economy 97, 740744.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mountford, A. and Uhlig, H. (2009) What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks? Journal of Applied Econometrics 24, 960992.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nakamura, E. and Steinsson, J. (2014) Fiscal stimulus in a monetary union: Evidence from US regions. The American Economic Review 104, 753792.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nickell, S. (1981) Biases in dynamic models with fixed effects. Econometrica 49, 14171426.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Owyang, M. and Zubairy, S. (2013) Who benefits from increased government spending? A state-level analysis. Regional Science and Urban Economics 43, 445464.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Peterman, W. (2016) Reconciling micro and macro estimates of the Frisch labor supply elasticity. Economic Inquiry 54, 100120.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ramey, V. (2011) Identifying government spending shocks: It’s all in the timing. The Quarterly Journal of Economics CXXVI (1), 150.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ramey, V. A. and Shapiro, M. D. (1998) Costly capital reallocation and the effects of government spending. In: Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 48, 145194.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ramey, V. and Zubairy, S. (2018) Government spending multipliers in good times and in bad: Evidence from US historical data. Journal of Political Economy 126, 850901.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ravn, M., Schmitt-Grohé, S. and Uribe, M. (2012) Consumption, government spending, and the real exchange rate. Journal of Monetary Economics 59, 215234.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Romer, C. and Romer, D. (1994) Monetary policy matters. Journal of Monetary Economics 34, 7588.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sims, C. (2000) Using a likelihood perspective to sharpen econometric discourse: Three examples. Journal of Econometrics 95, 443462.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Su, X. (2004) The allocation of public funds in a hierarchical educational system. Journal of Economics Dynamics and Control 28, 24852510.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Woodford, M. (2011) Simple analytics of the government expenditure multiplier. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 3, 135.Google Scholar
Zeev, N. and Pappa, E. (2017) Chronicle of a war foretold: The macroeconomic effects of anticipated defense spending shocks. The Economic Journal 127, 15681597.CrossRefGoogle Scholar