Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-v9fdk Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-14T01:32:45.360Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

IS BIGGER MORE EFFECTIVE? SHOCK SIZE AND THE EFFICACY OF MONETARY POLICY

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  09 June 2021

Toyoichiro Shirota*
Affiliation:
Hokkaido University
*
Address correspondence to: Hokkaido University, Kita 9 Nishi 7, Kita-ku, Sapporo, Hokkaido, 060-0809, Japan. e-mail: [email protected]. Phone: +81-11-706-4058.

Abstract

This study empirically examines whether shock size matters for the US monetary policy effects. Using a nonlinear local projection method, I find that large monetary policy shocks are less powerful than smaller monetary policy shocks, with the information effect being the potential source of the observed asymmetry in monetary policy efficacy.

Type
Articles
Copyright
© Cambridge University Press 2021

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

I am grateful to the editor, two anonymous referees, Ippei Fujiwara, Yasuo Hirose, James Morley, Keiichiro Kobayashi, Masao Ogaki, participants of RCAST macroeconomic workshop at University of Tokyo, the annual meeting of the EEA and WEAI, for comments and suggestions. All errors are on my own. This research is supported by a grant-in-aid from Murata Science Foundation and JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number 18K01558.

References

Angrist, J. D., Jorda, O. and Kuersteiner, G. (2017) Semiparametric estimates of monetary policy effects: String theory revisited. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 36(3), 371387.10.1080/07350015.2016.1204919CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Auerbach, A. J. and Gorodnichenko, Y. (2012) Measuring the output responses to fiscal policy. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 4(2), 127.Google Scholar
Barro, R. J. (1977) Unanticipated money growth and unemployment in the United States. American Economic Review 67(2), 101115.Google Scholar
Blanchard, O., Dell’Ariccia, G. and Mauro, P. (2010) Rethinking macroeconomic policy. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 42(s1), 199215.10.1111/j.1538-4616.2010.00334.xCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Campbell, J. R., Fisher, J. D. M., Justiniano, A. and Melosi, L. (2017) Forward guidance and macroeconomic outcomes since the financial crisis. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 31(1), 283357.10.1086/690242CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Christiano, L. J., Eichenbaum, M. and Evans, C. L. (1999) Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end? In: J. B. Taylor and M. Woodford (eds.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, Vol. 1. Handbook of Macroeconomics, Chapter 2, pp. 65–148. Elsevier.10.1016/S1574-0048(99)01005-8Google Scholar
Coibion, O. (2012) Are the effects of monetary policy shocks big or small? American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 4(2), 132.Google Scholar
Driscoll, J. and Kraay, A. (1998) Consistent covariance matrix estimation with spatially dependent panel data. The Review of Economics and Statistics 80(4), 549560.10.1162/003465398557825CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Enders, Z., Hünnekes, F. and Müller, G. J. (2019) Monetary policy announcements and expectations: Evidence from german firms. Journal of Monetary Economics 108(C), 4563.10.1016/j.jmoneco.2019.08.011CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Evans, P. (1986) Does the potency of monetary policy vary with capacity utilization?. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 24(1), 303331.10.1016/0167-2231(86)90014-XCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Garcia, R. and Schaller, H. (2002) Are the effects of monetary policy asymmetric? Economic Inquiry 40(1), 102119.10.1093/ei/40.1.102CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Granger, C. W. J. and Teräsvirta, T. (1993) Modelling Non-Linear Economic Relationships, Number 9780198773207. In: OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Hamilton, J. D. (1989) A new approach to the economic analysis of nonstationary time series and the business cycle. Econometrica 57(2), 357384.10.2307/1912559CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hansen, S. and McMahon, M. (2016) Shocking language: Understanding the macroeconomic effects of central bank communication. Journal of International Economics 99(S1), 114133.10.1016/j.jinteco.2015.12.008CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jarociński, M. and Karadi, P. (2020) Deconstructing monetary policy surprises-the role of information shocks. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 12(2), 143.Google Scholar
Jorda, O. (2005) Estimation and inference of impulse responses by local projections. American Economic Review 95(1), 161182.10.1257/0002828053828518CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Krugman, P. (2014) Inflation targets reconsidered. In: Paper presented at ECB Sintra Conference. European Central Bank.Google Scholar
Lo, M. C. and Piger, J. (2005) Is the response of output to monetary policy asymmetric? Evidence from a regime-switching coefficients model. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 37(5), 865886.10.1353/mcb.2005.0054CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Melosi, L. (2017) Signalling effects of monetary policy. Review of Economic Studies 84(2), 853884.Google Scholar
Mishkin, F. S. (1982) Does anticipated aggregate demand policy matter? Further econometric results. American Economic Review 72(4), 788802.Google Scholar
Nakamura, E. and Steinsson, J. (2018) High-frequency identification of monetary non-neutrality: The information effect. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 133(3), 12831330.10.1093/qje/qjy004CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Newey, W. K. and West, K. D. (1987) A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix. Econometrica 55(3), 703708.10.2307/1913610CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ramey, V. A. and Zubairy, S. (2018) Government spending multipliers in good times and in bad: Evidence from US historical data. Journal of Political Economy 126(2), 850901.10.1086/696277CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ravn, M. O. and Sola, M. (2004) Asymmetric effects of monetary policy in the United States. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review 86(5), 4160.Google Scholar
Romer, C. D. and Romer, D. H. (2004) A new measure of monetary shocks: Derivation and implications. American Economic Review 94(4), 10551084.10.1257/0002828042002651CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Romer, D. H. and Romer, C. D. (2000) Federal reserve information and the behavior of interest rates. American Economic Review 90(3), 429457.10.1257/aer.90.3.429CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tenreyro, S. and Thwaites, G. (2016) Pushing on a string: US monetary policy is less powerful in recessions. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 8(4), 4374.Google Scholar
Thoma, M. A. (1994) Subsample instability and asymmetries in money-income causality. Journal of Econometrics 64(1–2), 279306.10.1016/0304-4076(94)90066-3CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weise, C. L. (1999) The asymmetric effects of monetary policy: A nonlinear vector autoregression approach. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 31(1), 85108.10.2307/2601141CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: PDF

Shirota supplementary material

Shirota supplementary material

Download Shirota supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 85.4 KB