Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-2plfb Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-27T19:07:44.866Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

THE FINANCIAL CONNECTEDNESS BETWEEN EUROZONE CORE AND PERIPHERY: A DISAGGREGATED VIEW

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  31 January 2019

Georgios Magkonis
Affiliation:
University of Portsmouth
Andreas Tsopanakis*
Affiliation:
Cardiff University
*
Address correspondence to: Andreas Tsopanakis, Room F08, Aberconway Building, Cardiff Business School, Colum Dr, CF10 3EU, Cardiff, UK. e-mail: [email protected]. Phone: +44(0)2920876545.

Abstract

This paper examines the financial stress interconnectedness among Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain (GIIPS) economies and Germany. Based on market-level financial stress indices, we examine the stress transmission process as well as the causal network relationships in banking sector, bond, money, and stock markets. The period under investigation, 2001–2013, allows to test the effects of the 2007–2009 financial crisis as well as the subsequent European sovereign crisis. Using two alternative techniques for connectedness analysis, our evidence suggests that the peripheral economies of Italy and Spain play a highly significant role in the stress transmission in all markets, especially in the cases of banks and equity markets. Moreover, we visualize our results using network analysis. Contrary to common wisdom, Portugal, Ireland, and mainly Greece do not seem to have an important role in amplifying stress levels.

Type
Articles
Copyright
© Cambridge University Press 2019

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Alter, A. and Beyer, A. (2014) The dynamics of spillover effects during the European sovereign debt turmoil. Journal of Banking and Finance 42, 134153.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ang, A. and Longstaff, F. A. (2013) Systemic sovereign credit risk: Lessons from the US and Europe. Journal of Monetary Economics 60, 493510.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Antonakakis, N. and Vergos, K. (2013) Sovereign bond yield spillovers in the Euro zone during the financial and debt crisis. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money 26, 258272.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Apostolakis, G. and Papadopoulos, A. P. (2014) Financial stress spillovers in advanced economies. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money 32, 128149.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Apostolakis, G. and Papadopoulos, A. P. (2015) Financial stress spillovers across the banking, securities and foreign exchange markets. Journal of Financial Stability 19, 121.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Billio, M., Getmansky, M., Lo, A. W. and Pelizzon, L. (2012) Econometric measures of connectedness and systemic risk in the finance and insurance sectors. Journal of Financial Economics 104, 535559.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bruttin, F. and Saure, P. (2015) Transmission of sovereign risk in the Euro crisis. Journal of International Economics 97, 231248.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Caporale, G.M. and Girardi, A. (2013) Fiscal spillovers in the Euro area. Journal of International Money and Finance 38, 84.e184.e16.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cardarelli, R., Ali Elekdag, S. and Lall, S. (2011) Financial stress and economic contractions. Journal of Financial Stability 7, 7897.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chau, F. and Deesomsak, R. (2014) Does linkage fuel the fire? The transmission of financial stress across the markets. International Review of Financial Analysis 36, 5770.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chen, Q., Filardo, A., He, D. and Zhu, F. (2016) Financial crisis, US unconventional monetary policy and international spillovers. Journal of International Money and Finance 67, 6281.Google Scholar
Claessens, S., Tong, H. and Zuccardi, I. (2015) Saving the Euro: Mitigating financial or trade spillovers? Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 47, 13691402.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Claeys, P. and Vasicek, B. (2014) Measuring bilateral spillover and testing contagion on sovereign bond markets in Europe. Journal of Banking and Finance 46, 151165.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Darracq-Paries, M. and De Santis, R. A. (2015) A non-standard monetary policy shock: The ECB’s 3-year LTROs and the shift in credit supply. Journal of International Money and Finance 54, 134.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Demirer, M., Diebold, F. X., Liu, L. and Yilmaz, K. (2018) Estimating global bank network connectedness. Journal of Applied Econometrics 33, 115.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
De Santis, R. A. (2014) The Euro area sovereign crisis: Identifying flight-to-liquidity and the spillover mechanisms. Journal of Empirical Finance 26, 150170.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Diebold, F. X., Liu, L. and Yilmaz, K. (2017) Commodity connectedness. National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA. NBER working paper 23685.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Diebold, F. X. and Yilmaz, K. (2012) Better to give than to receive: Forecast-based measurement of volatility spillovers. International Journal of Forecasting 28, 5766.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Diebold, F. X. and Yilmaz, K. (2014) On the network topology of variance decompositions:Measuring the connectedness of financial firms. Journal of Econometrics 182, 119134.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Diebold, F. X. and Yilmaz, K. (2015) Financial and Macroeconomic Connectedness: A Network Approach to Measurement and Monitoring. Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dungey, M. and Gajurel, D. (2015) Contagion and banking crisis—International evidence from 2007-2009. Journal of Banking and Finance 60, 271283.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dungey, M. and Renault, E. (2018) Identifying contagion. Journal of Applied Econometrics 33, 227250.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ehrmann, M., Fratzscher, M. and Rigobon, A. (2011) Stocks, bonds, money markets and exchange rates: Measuring international financial transmission. Journal of Applied Econometrics 26, 948974.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eichengreen, B., Mody, A., Nedeljkovic, M. and Sarno, L. (2012) How the subprime crisis went global: Evidence from bank credit default swap spreads. Journal of International Money and Finance 31, 12991318.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fernandez-Rodriguez, F., Gomez-Puig, M. and Sosvilla-Rivero, S. (2015) Volatility spillovers in EMU sovereign bond markets. International Review of Economics and Finance 39, 337352.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
González-Hermosillo, B. and Johnson, C. (2014) Transmission of financial stress in Europe: The pivotal role of Italy and Spain, but not Greece. International Monetary Fund, Washington DC. IMF Working Paper, no. 76.Google Scholar
Gorea, D. and Radev, D. (2014) The Euro area sovereign debt crisis: Can contagion spread from the periphery to the core? International Review of Economics and Finance 30, 78100.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jacomy, M., Heymann, S., Venturini, T. and Bastian, M. (2014). ForceAtlas2, a continuous graph layout algorithm for handy network visualization designed for the gephi software. PLoS One 9(6), e98679.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Jung, R. C. and Maderitsch, R. (2014) Structural breaks in volatility spillovers between international financial markets: Contagion or mere interdependence? Journal of Banking and Finance 47, 331342.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kim, B.-H., Kim, H. and Lee, B.-S. (2015) Spillover effects of the US financial crisis on financial markets in emerging Asian countries. International Review of Economics and Finance 39, 192210.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kohonen, A. (2014) Transmission of Government default risk in the Eurozone. Journal of International Money and Finance 47, 7185.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Koop, G., Pesaran, M. H. and Potter, S. M. (1996) Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models. Journal of Econometrics 74, 119147.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lee, H. W., Xie, Y. A. and Yau, J. (2011) The impact of sovereign risk on bond duration: Evidence from Asian sovereign bond markets. International Review of Economics and Finance 20, 441451.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
MacDonald, R., Sogiakas, V. and Tsopanakis, A. (2018) Volatility co-movements and spillover effects within the Eurozone economies: A multivariate GARCH approach using the financial stress index. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money 52, 1736.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mensah, J. O. and Premaratne, G. (2017) Systemic interconnectedness among Asian Banks. Japan and the World Economy 41, 1733.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Metiu, N. (2012) Sovereign risk contagion in the Eurozone. Economics Letters 117, 3538.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mink, M. and de Haan, J. (2013) Contagion during the Greek sovereign debt crisis. Journal of International Money and Finance 34, 102113.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Minoiu, C., Kang, C., Subrahmanian, V. S. and Berea, A. (2015) Does financial connectedness predict crises? Quantitative Finance 15, 607624.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pesaran, H. H. and Shin, Y. (1998) Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models. Economics Letters 58, 1729.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Romero-Meza, R., Bonilla, C., Benedetti, H. and Serletis, A. (2015) Nonlinearities and financial contagion in Latin American stock markets. Economic Modelling 51, 653656.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Yiu, M. S., Ho, W.-Y. and Choi, D. F. (2010) Dynamic correlation analysis of financial contagion in Asian markets in global financial turmoil. Applied Financial Economics 20, 345354.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: PDF

Magkonis and Tsopanakis supplementary material

Appendix

Download Magkonis and Tsopanakis supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 389.8 KB