Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-4rdpn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-13T12:25:27.277Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

ARBITRAGE BETWEEN CONSUMPTION AND SAVING FOR BEQUEST: THE ROLE OF SUBJECTIVE EXPECTED SURVIVAL AND SATISFACTION WITH THE QUALITY OF LIFE, SOUTH KOREA 2008–2014

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 September 2019

Noël Bonneuil
Affiliation:
Institut national d’études démographiques, 133, bld Davout, 75980, Paris cedex 20, France and École des hautes études en sciences sociales, France
Younga Kim*
Affiliation:
Korea Labor Institute, 622, C Bldg, Sejong National Research Complex 370, Sicheong-daero, Sejong-si, 30147 South Korea
*
Address correspondence to: Younga Kim, Korea Labor Institute, 622, C Bldg, Sejong National Research Complex 370, Sicheong-daero, Sejong-si, 30147, South Korea. e-mail: [email protected]. Phone: 32 (0)10 47 41 80.

Abstract

Arbitrage between consumption and saving occurs in a context of an aging society where family solidarity is deteriorating. Maximizing inter-temporal utility makes it possible to calculate the preference for saving. The arbitrage involves subjective satisfaction with the quality of life, anticipated survival, and consumption profiles. Simultaneous equations based on the Korean Longitudinal Study on Aging, 2006–2014 (10,205 adults aged 45 and over) show that the preference for saving is determined only by and through these endogenous variables, with no other direct socioeconomic effects. People spending more money in education are those with the highest preference for saving. Socioeconomic variables influence the preference for saving in agreement to the economic theory of the life cycle, but through the structured filter of endogenous subjective variables and consumption profiles.

Type
Articles
Copyright
© Cambridge University Press 2019

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

Dr Younga Kim for this study was supported by the “MOVE-IN Louvain” project of Université catholique de Louvain, co-funded by the Marie Curie Actions of the European Commission.

References

REFERENCES

Adams, J., Stamp, E., Nettle, D., Milne, E. M. and Jagger, C. (2014) Socioeconomic position and the association between anticipated and actual survival in older English adults. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health 68, 818825.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Biro, A. (2013) Subjective mortality hazard shocks and the adjustment of consumption expenditures. Journal of Population Economics 26(4), 13791408.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blanchard, O.J. (1985) Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons. The Journal of Political Economy 93(2), 223247.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bloom, D. E., Canning, D., Moore, M. and Song, Y. (2006) The effect of subjective survival probabilities on retirement and wealth in the United States (NBER Working Paper No. 12688). Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research. http://www.nber.org/papers/w12688.Google Scholar
Bloom, D. E., Canning, D., Moore, M. and Song, Y. (2007) The effect of subjective survival probabilities on retirement and wealth in the United States. In Clark, R. L., Ogawa, N. and Mason, A. (eds.), Population Aging, Intergenerational Transfers and the Macroeconomy, pp. 67100. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing.Google Scholar
Boucekkine, R., de la Croix, D. and Licandro, O. (2002) Vintage human capital, demographic trends, and endogenous growth. Journal of Economic Theory 104, 340375.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chen, Y. and Paul Lau, S.-H. (2016) Mortality decline, retirement age, and aggregate savings. Macroeconomic Dynamics 20, 715736.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cho, H. (2018) How retirees prepare the cost of living? Newsis, April 29. Retrieved May 10 2018 http://www.newsis.com/view/?id=NISX20180428_0000294660&cID=10401&pID=10400Google Scholar
Cocco, J. F. and Gomes, F. J. (2012) Longevity risk, retirement savings, and financial innovation. Journal of Financial Economics 103, 507529.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Coile, C. C., Diamond, P., Gruber, J. and Jousten, A. (2002) Delays in claiming social security benefits. Journal of Public Economics 84(3), 357385.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Deaton, A. (2005) Franco Modigliani and the life cycle theory of consumption. Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review 58(233–234), 91107.Google Scholar
Delavande, A. and Willis, R. J. (2008) Managing the risk of life. Working Paper WP 2007-167. Michigan Retirement Research Center.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Delavande, A. and Rohwedder, S. (2011) Differential survival in Europe and the United States: estimates based on subjective probabilities of survival. Demography 48, 13771400.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
De Nardi, M., French, E. and Jones, J.B. (2009) Life expectancy and old age savings. American Economic Review 99, 110115.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gan, L., Gong, G., Hurd, M. D. and McFadden, D. L. (2015) Subjective mortality risk and bequests. Journal of Econometrics, 188(2), 514525.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Hamermesh, D. S. (1985) Expectations, life expectancy, and economic behavior. Quarterly Journal of Economics 100, 389408.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Heckman, J. J. (1979) Sample selection bias as a specification error. Econometrica 47, 153161.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Huang, H., Milevsky, M. A. and Salisbury, T. S. (2012) Optimal retirement consumption with a stochastic force of mortality. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 51, 282291.Google Scholar
Hurd, M. D. and McGarry, K. (1995) Evaluation of the subjective probabilities of survival in the Health and Retirement Study. Journal of Human Resources, 30(Suppl. 1), S268S292.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hurd, M. D. and McGarry, K. (2002) The predictive validity of subjective probabilities of survival. Economic Journal 112, 966998.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hurd, M. D., McFadden, D. L. and Gan, L. (1998) Subjective survival curves and life cycle behavior. In: Wise, D. A. (ed.), Inquiries in the Economics of Aging, pp. 259305. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Hurd, M. D., Smith, J. P. and Zissimopoulos, J. M. (2004) The effects of subjective survival on retirement and social security claiming. Journal of Applied Econometrics 19, 761775.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kahneman, D. (1996) New challenges to the rationality assumption. In Arrow, K. J., Colombatto, E., Perlman, M. and Schmidt, C. (eds.), The Rational Foundations of Economic Behaviour, pp. 203219. Basingstoke-New York: Macmillan and St. Martin’s Press.Google Scholar
Khwaja, A., Sloan, F. A. and Chung, S. (2007) The relationship between individual expectations and behaviors: Evidence on mortality expectations and smoking decisions. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 35, 179201.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kim, J. (2013) Undreamded of “beautiful retirement” for baby-boomers. Dailian, May 2 2018. Retrieved May 10, 2018 from http://www.dailian.co.kr/news/view/337549)Google Scholar
Korea Employment Information Service (2015) Guide for using the 5th wave of KLoSA Eumseong: Korea Employment Information Service.Google Scholar
KLoSA User’s guide Wave 1 (2007).Google Scholar
Levhari, D. and Mirman, L. (1977) Savings and consumption with an uncertain horizon. Journal of Political Economy 85, 265281.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lillard, L. A. (1993) Marriage duration and fertility timing. Journal of Econometrics 56, 189217.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Menoncin, F. (2008) The role of longevity bonds in optimal portfolios. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 42, 343358.Google Scholar
Mirowsky, J. and Ross, C. E. (2000) Socioeconomic status and subjective life expectancy. Social Psychology Quarterly 63, 133151.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pak, T.-Y. and Choung, Y. (2017) Rationality of longevity expectations: Evidence from the Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance 13, 5161.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Perozek, M. (2008) Using subjective expectations to forecast longevity: Do survey respondents know something we don’t know? Demography 45, 95113.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Popham, F. and Mitchell, R. (2007) Self-rated life expectancy and lifetime socio-economic position: cross-sectional analysis of the British Household Panel Survey. International Journal of Epidemiology 36, 5865.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Post, T. and Hanewald, K. (2013) Longevity risk, subjective survival expectations, and individual saving behaviour. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 86, 200220.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Salm, M. (2010) Subjective mortality expectations and consumption and saving behaviours among the elderly. Canadian Journal of Economics 43(3), 10401057.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Scholl, A. and Le Blanc, J. (2017) Optimal savings for retirement: The role of individual accounts. Macroeconomic Dynamics 21(6), 13611388 Google Scholar
Siegel, M., Bradley, E. H. and Kasl, S. V. (2003) Self-rated life expectancy as a predictor of mortality: evidence from the HRS and AHEAD survey. Gerontology 49, 265271.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Spaenjers, C. and Spira, S. M. (2015) Subjective life horizon and portfolio choice. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 116, 94106.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Statistics Korea. (2016). National Survey on Korean Older Persons. Retrieved from http://kosis.kr/eng/statisticsList/statisticsList_01List.jsp?vwcd=MT_ETITLE&parentId=DGoogle Scholar
Nations, United, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, DVD Edition. NY: The United Nations.Google Scholar
Winter, J. (2008) Expectations and attitudes. In Börsch-Supan, A., Brugiavini, A., Jürges, H., Kapteyn, A., Mackenbach, J. P., Siegrist, J. and Weber, G. (eds.), First Results from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (2004–2007)—Starting the Longitudinal Dimension, pp. 306311. Mannheim: MEA.Google Scholar
Yaari, M. E. (1965) Uncertain lifetime, life insurance, and the theory of the consumer. Review of Economic Studies 32, 137150.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Yang, S. S. and Huang, H.-C. (2009) The impact of longevity risk on the optimal contribution rate and asset allocation for defined contribution pension plans. The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice 34(4), 660681.CrossRefGoogle Scholar