Hostname: page-component-745bb68f8f-grxwn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-02-04T18:17:50.083Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Prevalence and Recidivism in Index Arrests: A Feedback Model

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 July 2024

Alfred Blumstein  and
Elizabeth Graddy
Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Core share and HTML view are not available for this content. However, as you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.

It is important for both theoretical and policy reasons to partition aggregate crime rates into measures of prevalence (reflecting breadth of participation) and incidence (reflecting intensity of participation by those who do engage in crime). Prevalence is measured by accumulating over age the probability of first arrest as a function of age. Incidence is estimated by the probability of recidivism in a feedback model. The probability of a male in U.S. cities over 250,000 population ever being arrested for an index crime is estimated as 25 percent, and is quite different for black males (51 percent) and white males (14 percent). The probability of re-arrest for an index crime is estimated as 85 to 90 percent for both whites and blacks. These estimates highlight the breadth of involvement in index-crime arrests, and suggest that the large differences in race-specific arrest rates are predominantly attributable to difference in participation, and not to differences in recidivism for those who do get involved.

Type
Research Article
Information
Law & Society Review , Volume 16 , Issue 2 , 1982 , pp. 265 - 290
Copyright
Copyright © 1982 The Law and Society Association.

References

BELKIN, Jacob, Alfred, BLUMSTEIN, and William, GLASS (1972) “Recidivism as a Feedback Process: An Analytical Model and Empirical Validation,” 1 Journal of Criminal Justice 7.Google Scholar
BLUMSTEIN, Alfred and Jacqueline, COHEN (1979) “Estimation of Individual Crime Rates from Arrest Records,” 70 Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology 561.Google Scholar
BLUMSTEIN, Alfred and Richard C., LARSON (1969) “Models of a Total Criminal Justice System,” 17 Operations Research 199.Google Scholar
Richard C., LARSON (1971) “Problems in Modeling and Measuring Recidivism,” 8 Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency 124.Google Scholar
BLUMSTEIN, Alfred and Soumyo, MOITRA (1980) “The Identification of ‘Career Criminals’ From ‘Chronic Offenders’ in a Cohort,” 2 Law and Policy Quarterly 321.Google Scholar
CHRISTENSEN Ronald (1967) “Projected Percentage of U.S. Population with Criminal Arrest and Conviction Records,” in The President's Commission on Law Enforcement and Administration of Justice, Task Force Report: Science and Technology, Appendix J. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office.Google Scholar
Current Population Reports. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Series C3.186: P23 and P25. Various years. Washington D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office.Google Scholar
FARRINGTON, David P. (1981) “The Prevalence of Convictions,” 21 British Journal of Criminology 173.Google Scholar
GOLD, Martin (1966) “Undetected Delinquent Behavior,” 3 Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency 27.Google Scholar
GOLD, Martin and David J., REIMER (1975) “Changing Patterns of Delinquent Behavior among Americans 13 through 16 Years Old: 1967-1972,” 7 Crime and Delinquency Literature 483.Google Scholar
HINDELANG, Michael J. (1978) “Race and Involvement in Common Law Personal Crimes,” 43 American Sociological Review 93.Google Scholar
HINDELANG, Michael J., Travis, HIRSCHI, and Joseph G., WEIS (1979) “Correlates of Delinquency: The Illusion of Discrepancy Between Self-Report and Official Measures,” 44 American Sociological Review 995.Google Scholar
LITTLE, Alan (1965) “The ‘Prevalence’ of Recorded Delinquency and Recidivism in England and Wales,” 30 American Sociological Review 260.Google Scholar
MALTZ, Michael D. and Richard, MCCLEARY (1977) “The Mathematics of Behavioral Change: Recidivism and Construct Validity,” 1 Evaluation Quarterly 421.Google Scholar
PINDYCK, Robert S. and Daniel L., RUBINFELD (1976) Econometric Models and Economic Forecasts. New York: McGraw-Hill, Inc.Google Scholar
PRESIDENT'S COMMISSION ON LAW ENFORCEMENT AND ADMINISTRATION OF JUSTICE (1967) Task Force Report: Science and Technology. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office.Google Scholar
SHINNAR, Shlomo and Reuel, SHINNAR (1975) “The Effects of the Criminal Justice System on the Control of Crime: A Quantitative Approach,” 9 Law & Society Review 581.Google Scholar
STOLLMACK, Stephen and Carl M., HARRIS (1974) “Failure-Rate Analysis Applied to Recidivism Data,” 22 Operations Research 1192.Google Scholar
SUTHERLAND, Edwin H. and Donald R., CRESSEY (1974) Criminology. Philadelphia: J.B. Lippincott Company.Google Scholar
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE, Federal Bureau of Investigation, Uniform Crime Reports, various years. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office.Google Scholar
WILLIAMS, Jay R. and Martin, GOLD (1972) “From Delinquent Behavior to Official Delinquency,” 20 Social Problems 209.Google Scholar
WOLFGANG, Marvin E, FIGLIO, Robert M., and Thorsten, SELLIN (1972) Delinquency in a Birth Cohort. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
WOLFGANG, Marvin (1977) “From Boy to Man—From Delinquency to Crime.” Paper presented at National Symposium on the Serious Juvenile Offender, Minneapolis, Minnesota, 1977.Google Scholar