Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-7cvxr Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-29T13:48:57.241Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Ideological Vote and Electoral Performance of the Bolivian MAS, 2002–2014

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  12 October 2020

Diego Luján Open the ORCID record for Diego Luján [Opens in a new window]
Diego Luján*
Affiliation:
Diego Luján is an assistant professor in the Department of Political Science, Universidad de la República, Uruguay. [email protected].
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Since 2005, the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) has become a predominant party in the Bolivian party system. Despite its origin as a small, indigenous, and peasant-based party, the MAS has achieved an electoral performance unprecedented in Bolivian political history. What accounts for its electoral rise? Unlike available explanations based on sociostructural, institutional, or contextual factors, this article argues that ideological location decisions served as a signaling device that allowed the MAS to differentiate itself from its competitors. In so doing, the party managed to transcend the border of ethnic and regional cleavages, appealing to a broader electorate, which contributed decisively to its electoral success. Using data from public opinion surveys and based on statistical models, this article shows that ideology was pivotal in Bolivians’ decisions to vote for the MAS, particularly during the early period of its electoral takeoff.

Keywords

Ideological voteMovement Toward SocialismBolivian politics
Type
Research Article
Information
Latin American Politics and Society , Volume 62 , Issue 4 , November 2020 , pp. 75 - 97
Copyright
© The Author, 2020. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the University of Miami

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

Conflict of interest: Author Diego Luján declares none.

References

Albó, Xavier. 2009. Larga memoria de lo étnico en Bolivia, con temporales oscilaciones. In Tensiones irresueltas: Bolivia, pasado y presente, ed. Crabtree, John, Molina, George Gray, and Whitehead, Laurence. La Paz: PNUD/Plular Editores. 19–40.Google Scholar
Anria, Santiago. 2013. Social Movements, Party Organization, and Populism: Insights from the Bolivian MAS. Latin American Politics and Society 55, 3: 19–46.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Anria, Santiago. 2016. Democratizing Democracy? Civil Society and Party Organization in Bolivia. Comparative Politics 48, 4: 459–78.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Arditi, Benjamin. 2008. Arguments About the Left Turns in Latin America: A Post-Liberal Politics? Latin American Research Review 43, 3: 59–81.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Baker, Andy, and Greene, Kenneth. 2011. The Latin American Left’s Mandate: Free-Market Policies and Issue Voting in New Democracies. World Politics 63, 1: 43–77.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cameron, Maxwell. 2009. Latin America’s Left Turns: Beyond Good and Bad. Third World Quarterly 30, 2: 331–48.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carlin, Ryan, Singer, Matthew, and Zechmeister, Elizabeth. 2015. The Latin American Voter: Pursuing Representation and Accountability in Challenging Contexts. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Castañeda, Jorge. 2006. Latin America’s Left Turn. Foreign Affairs 85, 3: 28-43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Centellas, Miguel. 2008a. From “Parliamentarized” to “Pure” Presidentialism: Bolivia After October 2003. Latin Americanist 52, 3: 5–30.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Centellas, Miguel. 2008b. Bolivia’s Party System After October 2003: Where Did All the Politicians Go? Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Boston, August 28–31.Google Scholar
Centellas, Miguel. 2009. Electoral Reform, Regional Cleavages, and Party System Stability in Bolivia. Journal of Politics in Latin America 1, 2: 115–31.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Colomer, Josep, and Escatel, Luis. 2005. La dimensión izquierda-derecha en América Latina. Desarrollo Económico 44, 177: 123–36.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Crabtree, John. 2011. Electoral Validation for Morales and the MAS (1999–2010). In Pearce 2011. 117–42.Google Scholar
Dalton, Russell J. 2011. Left-Right Orientations, Context, and Voting Choices. In Citizens, Context, and Choice: How Context Shapes Citizens’ Electoral Choices, ed. Dalton and Christopher Anderson. New York: Oxford University Press. 103–25.Google Scholar
Eaton, Kent. 2007. Backlash in Bolivia: Regional Autonomy as a Reaction Against Indigenous Mobilization. Politics & Society 35, 1: 71–102.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eaton, Kent. 2014. Recentralization and the Left Turn in Latin America: Diverging Outcomes in Bolivia, Ecuador, and Venezuela. Comparative Political Studies 47, 8: 1130–57.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eaton, Kent. 2016. Challenges of Party-Building in the Bolivian East. In Challenges of Party-Building in Latin America, ed. Levitsky, Steven, Loxton, James, Van Dyck, Brandon, and Domínguez, Jorge. New York: Cambridge University Press. 383–411.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Franklin, Mark, Mackie, Thomas, and Valen, Henry, eds. 1992. Electoral Change: Responses to Evolving Social and Attitudinal Structures in Western Countries. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Gamarra, Eduardo, and Malloy, James. 1995. The Patrimonial Dynamics of Party Politics in Bolivia. In Building Democratic Institutions: Party Systems in Latin America, ed. Mainwaring, Scott and Scully, Timothy. Stanford: Stanford University Press. 399–412.Google Scholar
Grindle, Merilee S. 2000. Audacious Reforms: Institutional Invention and Democracy in Latin America. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Gunther, Richard, and Diamond, Larry. 2003. Species of Political Parties: A New Typology. Party Politics 9, 2: 167–99.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Guzmán Prudencio, Guillermo, and López, Fernando Rodríguez. 2018. Voto étnico en Bolivia. Cohesión, disgregación y clivajes étnicos. Política y Gobierno 25, 1: 65–100.Google Scholar
Harten, Sven. 2011. Toward a “Traditional Party”? Internal Organisation and Change in the MAS in Bolivia. In Pearce 2011. 63–91.Google Scholar
Jones, Mark. 1995. Electoral Laws and the Survival of Presidential Democracies. Notre Dame: University of Notre Dame Press.Google Scholar
Jones, Mark. 2018. Presidential and Legislative Elections. In The Oxford Handbook of Electoral Systems, ed. Herron, Erik, Pekkanen, Robert, and Shugart, Matthew. Oxford: Oxford University Press. 283–301.Google Scholar
Kitschelt, Herbert. 2000. Linkages Between Citizens and Politicians in Democratic Polities. Comparative Political Studies 33, 6–7: 845–79.Google Scholar
Klein, Herbert. 2011. The Historical Background to the Rise of the MAS, 1952–2005. In Pearce 2011. 27–61.Google Scholar
Kohl, Benjamin, and Farthing, Linda. 2006. Impasse in Bolivia: Neoliberal Hegemony and Popular Resistance. London: Zed Books.Google Scholar
Komadina, Jorge. 2008. La estrategia simbólica del Movimiento al Socialismo. Tinkazos 1, 23–24: 183–96.Google Scholar
Lachat, Romain. 2008. The Impact of Party Polarization on Ideological Voting. Electoral Studies 27, 4: 687–98.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levitsky, Steven, and Roberts, Kenneth. 2011. Latin America’s Left Turn. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Loayza, Rafael. 2011. Eje del MAS. Ideología, representación social y mediación en Evo Morales Ayma. La Paz: Konrad Adenauer.Google Scholar
Lupu, Noam. 2014. Brand Dilution and the Breakdown of Political Parties in Latin America. World Politics 66, 4: 561–602.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lupu, Noam. 2018. Party Brands, Partisan Erosion, and Party Breakdown. In Party Systems in Latin America: Institutionalization, Decay, and Collapse, ed. Mainwaring, Scott. New York: Cambridge University Press. 359–79.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Madrid, Raúl. 2008. The Rise of Ethnopopulism in Latin America. World Politics 60, 3: 475–508.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Madrid, Raúl. 2011. Bolivia: Origins and Policies of the Movimiento al Socialismo. In The Resurgence of the Latin American Left, ed. Levitsky, Steven and Roberts, Kenneth. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press. 239–59.Google Scholar
Madrid, Raúl. 2016. Obstacles to Ethnic Parties in Latin America. In Challenges of Party-Building in Latin America, ed. Levitsky, Steven, Loxton, James, Van Dyck, Brandon, and Domínguez, Jorge. New York: Cambridge University Press. 305–30.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mayorga, Fernando. 2003. Neopopulismo y democracia en Bolivia. Revista de Ciencia Política 23,1: 99–118.Google Scholar
Mayorga, René Antonio. 2004. La crisis del sistema de partidos políticos: causas y consecuencias. Caso Bolivia. In Partidos políticos en la Región Andina: entre la crisis y el cambio. Lima: IDEA. 27–49.Google Scholar
Morgenstern, Scott. 2017. Are Politics Local? The Two Dimensions of Party Nationalization Around the World. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Muñoz-Pogossian, Betilde. 2008. Electoral Rules and the Transformation of Bolivian Politics: The Rise of Evo Morales. Heidelberg: Springer.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Panizza, Francisco. 2005. Unarmed Utopia Revisited: The Resurgence of Left-of-Centre Politics in Latin America. Political Studies 53, 4: 716–34.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pearce, Adrian J., ed. 2011. Evo Morales and the Movimiento al Socialismo in Bolivia: The First Term in Context, 2006–2010. London: Institute for the Study of the Americas, University of London.Google Scholar
Queirolo, Rosario. 2013. The Success of the Left in Latin America: Untainted Parties, Market Reforms, and Voting Behavior. Notre Dame: University of Notre Dame Press.Google Scholar
Roberts, Kenneth. 2007. Latin America’s Populist Revival. SAIS Review of International Affairs 27, 1: 3–15.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Romero Ballivián, Salvador. 2003. CONDEPA y UCS: el declive del neopopulismo boliviano. Revista de Ciencia Política 23, 1: 67–98.Google Scholar
Romero, Ballivián, Salvador. 2016. El sistema de partidos en Bolivia (1952–2015): del partido hegemónico al partido predominante. In Los sistemas de partidos en América Latina 1978–2015. Cono Sur y Países Andinos, ed. Freidenberg, Flavia. Mexico City: GIPSAL/ALACIP/UNAM/INE. 271–338.Google Scholar
Ruth, Saskia. P. 2016. Clientelism and the Utility of the Left-Right Dimension in Latin America. Latin American Polítics and Society 58, 1: 72–97.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Singer, Matthew. 2016. Elite Polarization and the Electoral Impact of Left-Right Placements: Evidence from Latin America, 1995–2009. Latin American Research Review 51, 2: 174–94.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Van Cott, Donna. 2000. Party System Development and Indigenous Populations in Latin America: The Bolivian Case. Party Polítics 6, 2: 155–74.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Van Cott, Donna. 2005. From Movements to Parties in Latin America: The Evolution of Ethnic Politics. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weyland, Kurt, Madrid, Raúl, and Hunter, Wendy. 2010. Leftist Governments in Latin America: Successes and Shortcomings. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zechmeister, Elizabeth. 2010. Left-Right Semantics as a Facilitator of Programmatic Structuration. In Latin American Party Systems, ed. Kitschelt, Herbert, Hawkins, Kirk, Luna, Juan Pablo, Rosas, Guillermo, and Zechmeister. New York: Cambridge University Press. 96–118.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: PDF

Luján supplementary material

Online Appendix

Download Luján supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 135.5 KB