Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-fscjk Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-27T02:56:37.920Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Floating Voters and the Rise of New Left Parties: Electoral Volatility During Party System Transformation

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  28 May 2018

Thomas Mustillo
Thomas Mustillo*
Affiliation:
Associate professor of political science at Purdue University.
*
[email protected]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Volatility is a central theme of the scholarship on party competition. At the extreme, entire systems collapse. Bolivia, Ecuador, and Venezuela each went through a protracted period of change with the crash of old parties and the rise of new ones, including one representing the “new left.” Average electoral volatility grew by more than 50 percent and remained high for a decade or more. Can this churning surface of party death, birth, and change obscure undercurrents of stabilization in individual voting behavior? This project decomposes electoral volatility into two subtypes: system-level volatility—long-term spatial and temporal trends of change in support (e.g., realignment)—and individual volatility—fluid and cycle-specific fluctuations in support (e. g., electoral swing). It shows that the high volatility through the transformation has been at the system level, not the individual level. The cause is the stronger partisan and ethnic bonds mobilized by the new left.

Keywords

Electoral volatilityethnic partiespopulist left
Type
Research Article
Information
Latin American Politics and Society , Volume 60 , Issue 3 , August 2018 , pp. 1 - 26
Copyright
© 2018 University of Miami 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Bartolini, Stefano, and Mair, Peter. 1990. Identity, Competition, and Electoral Availability: The Stabilisation of European Electorates, 1885–1985. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Becker, Marc. 2013. The Stormy Relations Between Rafael Correa and Social Movements in Ecuador. Latin American Perspectives 40, 3: 43–62.Google Scholar
Birnir, Jóhanna Kristín. 2007. Ethnicity and Electoral Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Brady, David W., D’Onofrio, Robert, and Fiorina, Morris P.. 2000. The Nationalization of Electoral Forces Revisited. In Continuity and Change in House Elections, ed. Brady, John F. Cogan, and Fiorina. Stanford: Stanford University Press. 130–148.Google Scholar
Bruhn, Kathleen. 1997. Taking on Goliath: The Emergence of a New Left Party and the Struggle for Democracy in Mexico. University Park: Pennsylvania State University Press.Google Scholar
Cain, Bruce, Ferejohn, John, and Fiorina, Morris. 1987. The Personal Vote: Constituency Service and Electoral Independence. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Campbell, Angus, Converse, Philip E., Miller, Warren E., and Stokes, Donald E.. 1960. The American Voter. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Caramani, Daniele. 2004. The Nationalization of Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carey, John, and Shugart, Matthew Soberg. 1995. Incentives to Cultivate a Personal Vote: A Rank Ordering of Electoral Formulas. Electoral Studies 14, 4: 417–439.Google Scholar
Carreras, Miguel. 2012. Party Systems in Latin America After the Third Wave: A Critical Re-Assessment. Journal of Politics in Latin America 4, 1: 135–153.Google Scholar
Carreras, Miguel, Morgenstern, Scott, and Su, Yen-Pin. 2015. Refining the Theory of Partisan Alignments: Evidence from Latin America. Party Politics 21, 5: 671–685.Google Scholar
Centellas, Miguel. 2009. Electoral Reform, Regional Cleavages, and Party System Stability in Bolivia. Journal of Politics in Latin America 1, 2: 115–131.Google Scholar
Centellas, Miguel. 2015. The 2014 Presidential and Legislative Elections in Bolivia. Electoral Studies 38: 82–136.Google Scholar
Chhibber, Pradeep, and Kollman, Ken. 2004. The Formation of National Party Systems: Federalism and Party Competition in Canada, Great Britain, India, and the United States. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Conaghan, Catherine M. 1995. Politicians Against Parties: Discord and Disconnection in Ecuador’s Party System. In Building Democratic Institutions: Party Systems in Latin America, ed. Timothy R. Scully and Scott Mainwaring. Stanford: Stanford University Press. 434–458.Google Scholar
Conaghan, Catherine, and de la Torre, Carlos. 2008. The Permanent Campaign of Rafael Correa: Making Ecuador’s Plebiscitary Presidency. International Journal of Press/Politics 13, 3: 267–284.Google Scholar
Converse, Philip E. 1966. The Concept of a Normal Vote. In Elections and the Political Order, ed. Angus Campbell, Converse, Warren E. Miller, and Donald E. Stokes. New York: Wiley. 9–39.Google Scholar
Coppedge, Michael. 1994. Strong Parties and Lame Ducks: Presidential Partyarchy and Factionalism in Venezuela. Stanford: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Dalton, Russell J., Beck, Paul Allen, and Flanagan, Scott C.. 1984. Electoral Change in Advanced Industrial Democracies. In Electoral Change in Advanced Industrial Democracies: Realignment or Dealignment? ed. Dalton, Flanagan, and Beck. Princeton: Princeton University Press. 3–24.Google Scholar
De la Torre, Carlos. 2000. Populist Seduction in Latin America: The Ecuadorian Experience. Athens, OH: Center for International Studies, Ohio University.Google Scholar
De la Torre, Carlos. 2010. ¿Más allá de la democracia representativa procedimental? Ecuador Debate 80: 45–62.Google Scholar
De la Torre, Carlos, and Conaghan, Catherine. 2009. The Hybrid Campaign: Tradition and Modernity in Ecuador’s 2006 Presidential Election. International Journal of Press/Politics 14, 3: 335–352.Google Scholar
Duverger, Maurice. 1954. Political Parties: Their Organization and Activity in the Modern State. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Ellner, Steve. 2008. Rethinking Venezuelan Politics: Class, Conflict, and the Chávez Phenomenon. Boulder: Lynne Rienner.Google Scholar
Ellner, Steve. 2012. The Distinguishing Features of Latin America’s New Left in Power: The Chávez, Morales, and Correa Governments. Latin American Perspectives 39, 1: 96–114.Google Scholar
Haughton, Tim, and Deegan-Krause, Kevin. 2015. Hurricane Season: Systems of Instability in Central and East European Party Politics. East European Politics and Societies 29, 1: 61–80.Google Scholar
Hawkins, Kirk A. 2003. Populism in Venezuela: The Rise of Chavismo. Third World Quarterly 24, 6: 1137–1160.Google Scholar
Hawkins, Kirk A. 2010. Venezuela’s Chavismo and Populism in Comparative Perspective. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Hawkins, Kirk A., and Hansen, David R.. 2006. Dependent Civil Society: The Círculos Bolivarianos in Venezuela. Latin American Research Review 41, 1: 102–132.Google Scholar
Jones, Mark P., and Mainwaring, Scott. 2003. The Nationalization of Parties and Party Systems: An Empirical Measure and an Application to the Americas. Party Politics 9, 2: 139–166.Google Scholar
Kitschelt, Herbert, Hawkins, Kirk A., Luna, Juan Pablo, Rosas, Guillermo, and Zechmeister, Elizabeth J.. 2010. Latin American Party Systems. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Levitsky, Steven, and Loxton, James. 2013. Populism and Competitive Authoritarianism in the Andes. Democratization 20, 1: 107–136.Google Scholar
Levitsky, Steven, and Roberts, Kenneth M.. 2013. The Resurgence of the Latin American Left. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Luna, Juan Pablo. 2007. Frente Amplio and the Crafting of a Social Democratic Alternative in Uruguay. Latin American Politics and Society 49, 4: 1–30.Google Scholar
Luna, Juan Pablo, and Zechmeister, Elizabeth J.. 2005. Political Representation in Latin America: A Study of Elite-Mass Congruence in Nine Countries. Comparative Political Studies 38, 4: 388–416.Google Scholar
Lupu, Noam. 2016. Party Brands in Crisis: Partisanship, Brand Dilution, and the Breakdown of Political Parties in Latin America. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Madrid, Raúl L. 2005a. Ethnic Cleavages and Electoral Volatility in Latin America. Comparative Politics 38, 1: 1–20.Google Scholar
Madrid, Raúl L. 2005b. Indigenous Parties and Democracy in Latin America. Latin American Politics and Society 47, 4: 161–179.Google Scholar
Madrid, Raúl L. 2005c. Indigenous Voters and Party System Fragmentation in Latin America. Electoral Studies 24: 689–707.Google Scholar
Madrid, Raúl L. 2009. The Origins of the Two Lefts in Latin America. Political Science Quarterly 125, 4: 1–23.Google Scholar
Madrid, Raúl L. 2012. The Rise of Ethnic Politics in Latin America. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Mainwaring, Scott, and Scully, Timothy R.. 1995. Introduction: Party Systems in Latin America. In Building Democratic Institutions: Party Systems in Latin America, ed. Mainwaring and Scully. Stanford: Stanford University Press. 1–34.Google Scholar
Mainwaring, Scott, Bejarano, Ana María, and Leongómez, Eduardo Pizarro. 2006. The Crisis of Democratic Representation in the Andes. Stanford: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Morgan, Jana. 2007. Partisanship During the Collapse of Venezuela’s Party System. Latin American Research Review 42, 1: 78–98.Google Scholar
Morgan, Jana. 2011. Bankrupt Representation and Party System Collapse. University Park: Pennsylvania State University Press.Google Scholar
Morgenstern, Scott. 2017. Are Politics Local? The Two Dimensions of Party Nationalization Around the World. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Morgenstern, Scott, and Potthoff, Richard F.. 2005. The Components of Elections: District Heterogeneity, District-Time Effects, and Volatility. Electoral Studies 24: 17–40.Google Scholar
Morgenstern, Scott, and Swindle, Stephen M.. 2005. Are Politics Local? An Analysis of Voting Patterns in 23 Democracies. Comparative Political Studies 38, 2: 143–170.Google Scholar
Morgenstern, Scott, Polga-Hecimovich, John, and Siavelis, Peter. 2014. Seven Imperatives for Improving the Measurement of Party Nationalization, with Evidence from Chile. Electoral Studies 33: 186–199.Google Scholar
Morgenstern, Scott, Swindle, Stephen M., and Castagnola, Andrea. 2009. Party Nationalization and Institutions. Journal of Politics 71, 4: 1322–1341.Google Scholar
Mustillo, Thomas. 2017. Party Nationalization Following Democratization: Modeling Change in Turbulent Times. Democratization 24, 6: 929–950.Google Scholar
Mustillo, Thomas, and Mustillo, Sarah A.. 2012. Party Nationalization in a Multilevel Context: Where’s the Variance? Electoral Studies 31, 2: 422–433.Google Scholar
Mustillo, Thomas, and Jung, Yoo Sun. 2016. Distinguishing Territorial Structure from Electoral Adventurism: The Sources of Static and Dynamic Nationalization. Electoral Studies 44: 341–350.Google Scholar
Nardulli, Peter F. 1995. The Concept of a Critical Realignment, Electoral Behavior, and Political Change. American Political Science Review 89, 1: 10–22.Google Scholar
Pedersen, Mogens. 1979. The Dynamics of European Party Systems: Changing Patterns of Electoral Volatility. European Journal of Political Research 7, 1: 1–26.Google Scholar
Roberts, Kenneth M. 2003. Social Correlates of Party System Demise and Populist Resurgence in Venezuela. Latin American Politics and Society 45, 3: 35.Google Scholar
Roberts, Kenneth M. 2006. Populism, Political Conflict, and Grass-Roots Organization in Latin America. Comparative Politics 38, 2: 127–148.Google Scholar
Roberts, Kenneth M. 2014. Changing Course in Latin America: Party Systems in the Neoliberal Era. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Seawright, Jason. 2012. Party-System Collapse: The Roots of Crisis in Peru and Venezuela. Stanford: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Singer, Judith D., and Willett, John B.. 2003. Applied Longitudinal Data Analysis: Modeling Change and Event Occurrence. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Stokes, Donald E. 1965. A Variance Components Model of Political Effects. In Mathematical Applications in Political Science, ed. John M. Claunch. Conference on Mathematical Applications in Political Science. Dallas: Arnold Foundation, Southern Methodist University. 61–85.Google Scholar
Stokes, Donald E. 1967. Parties and the Nationalization of Electoral Forces. In The American Party Systems: States of Political Development, ed. William N. Chambers and Walter D. Burnham. New York: Oxford University Press. 182–202.Google Scholar
Van Cott, Donna Lee. 2005. From Movements to Parties in Latin America: The Evolution of Ethnic Politics. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: Link

Mustillo Dataset

Dataset

https://dx.doi.org/10.7910/DVN/GV6TLT
Link
Supplementary material: File

Mustillo supplementary material

Mustillo supplementary material 1

Download Mustillo supplementary material(File)
File 73.3 KB