Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-t7fkt Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-30T15:04:09.448Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Can Anyone Stop the President? Power Asymmetries and Term Limits in Latin America, 1984–2016

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  02 January 2018

Javier Corrales
Javier Corrales*
Affiliation:
Amherst College. [email protected]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Since the late twentieth century, numerous Latin American nations have launched efforts to relax presidential term limits, often successfully. This article discusses the conditions under which countries succeed in relaxing term limits. Drawing from bargaining models and reviewing 36 cases, it makes three arguments. First, actors' preferences are fairly predictable on the basis of officeholding: presidents are the most prominent actors pushing for expansion of term limits; opposition parties lead the resistance. Second, power asymmetry, measured by presidential approval ratings, is the best predictor of success, better than ideology or share of seats in Congress. Third, the only hope for stopping popular presidents rests with ruling parties and the courts, but only when the latter are sufficiently independent.

Type
Research
Information
Latin American Politics and Society , Volume 58 , Issue 2 , Summer 2016 , pp. 3 - 25
Copyright
Copyright © University of Miami 2016

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

ABC Color. 2011. Congreso rechaza enmienda para reelección de Lugo. July 14.Google Scholar
Basedu, Matthias, and Stroh, Alexander. 2008. Measuring Party Institutionalization in Developing Countries: a New Research Instrument Applied to 28 African Political Parties. GIGA Research Programme: Legitimacy and Efficiency of Political Systems 69 (February).Google Scholar
BBC. 2011. Honduras Truth Commission rules Zelaya removal was coup. July 7.Google Scholar
Britez, Edwin, and Morínigo, José Nicolás. 1993. Democracia tramparente. Asunción: Rp Ediciones/Comité de Iglesias. http://www.portalguarani.com/obras_autores_detalles.php?id_obras=18576 Google Scholar
Calvert, Peter. 2002. Argentina: the Crisis of Confidence. Paper presented at the 52nd Annual Conference of the UK Political Studies Association, University of Aberdeen.Google Scholar
Carey, John M. 2003. The Re-election Debate in Latin America. Latin American Politics and Society 45, 1 (Spring): 119–33.Google Scholar
Colomer, Josep Maria. 1995. Strategies and Outcomes in Eastern Europe. Journal of Democracy 6 (April): 74–85.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Consulta Mitofsky. 2010. Aprobación de mandatarios: América y el mundo. October. www.infolatam.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/Mitofsky-valoraci%C3%B3n-de-lideres.pdf Google Scholar
Coppedge, Michael. 1997. A Classification of Latin American Political Parties. Kellogg Institute Working Papers 244. Notre Dame: University of Notre Dame.Google Scholar
Corrales, Javier. 2002. Presidents Without Parties: Economic Reforms in Argentina and Venezuela. University Park: Pennsylvania State University Press.Google Scholar
Cuzán, Alfred G. 2015. Five Laws of Politics. Ps: Political Science and Politics (July): 415–19.Google Scholar
Durán-Martínez, Angélica. 2012. Presidents, Parties, and Referenda in Latin America. Comparative Political Studies no. 45 (September): 1159–87.Google Scholar
Economist Intelligence Unit. 2004. The Economist Intelligence Unit's Index of Democracy.Google Scholar
Féliz, Iván. 2015. Pld presenta acuerdos entre Danilo y Fernández. El Caribe (Santo Domingo), May 28.Google Scholar
Flecha, , Jacinto, Víctor, Martini, Carlos, and Salgueiro, Jorge Silvero. 1993. Autoritarismo, transición y constitución en el Paraguay: hacia una sociología del poder. Asunción: BASE ECTA.Google Scholar
Fuentes, Claudio. 2015. Shifting the Status Quo: Constitutional Reforms in Chile. Latin American Politics and Society 57, 1 (Spring): 99–122.Google Scholar
Ginsburg, Tom, Elkins, Zachary, and Blount, Justin. 2009. Does the Process of Constitution-making Matter? Annual Review of Law and Social Sciences 5 (February): 201–23.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Helmke, Gretchen. 2005. Courts Under Constraints: Judges, Generals, and Presidents in Argentina. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Helmke, Gretchen, and Ríos-Figueroa, Julio. 2011. Introduction: Courts in Latin America. In Courts in Latin America, ed. Helmke, and Ríos-Figueroa, . New York: Cambridge University Press. 27–55.Google Scholar
Heritage Foundation. Various years. Index of Economic Freedom. http://www.heritage.org/index/explore?view=by-region-country-year Google Scholar
Janda, Kenneth. 1980. Political Parties: A Cross-National Survey. New York: Free Press.Google Scholar
Kingstone, Peter. 2010. The Political Economy of Latin America: Reflections on Neoliberalism and Development. New York: Routledge.Google Scholar
LatinNews. 2006. Duarte seeks reform to allow re-election. Latin American Newsletters. August 16.Google Scholar
LatinNews, 2015. Medina's re-election bid produces major political realignment. July 8.Google Scholar
Llanos, Mariana, and Marsteintredet, Leiv. 2010. Introduction: Presidentialism and Presidential Breakdowns in Latin America. In Presidential Breakdowns in Latin America, ed. Llanos, and Marsteintredet, . New York: Palgrave Macmillan. 1–16.Google Scholar
Marsteintredet, Leiv. 2015. The Honduran Supreme Court Renders Inapplicable Unamendable Constitutional Provisions. I-Connect blog, May 2. http://www.iconnectblog.com/2015/05/marsteintredet-on-honduras Google Scholar
Martínez-Barahona, Elena. 2012. Constitutional Courts and Constitutional Change: Analysing the Cases of Presidential Re-election in Latin America. In New Constitutionalism in Latin America: Promises and Practices, ed. Nolte, Detlef and Schilling-Vacaflor, Almut. Farnham: Ashgate. 289–312.Google Scholar
Medrano, Néstor. 2015. Pld presenta acuerdo entre Danilo Medina y Leonel Fernández. Listín Diario (Santo Domingo), May 28.Google Scholar
Melton, James, and Ginsburg, Tom. 2012. Does De Jure Judicial Independence Really Matter? a Reevaluation of Explanations for Judicial Independence. Institute for Law and Economics Working Paper no. 612 (2d series). Chicago: Law School, University of Chicago, August.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mindez, Leonardo. 2013. Cristina volvió a coquetear con la idea de reformar la Constitución. Clarín (Buenos Aires), May 15.Google Scholar
Moe, Terry M. 1991. Politics and the Theory of Organization. Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization 7: 106–29.Google Scholar
Negretto, Gabriel. 1999. Constitution-Making and Institutional Design: the Transformation of Presidentialism in Argentina. Journal of European Sociology 2: 193–233.Google Scholar
Negretto, Gabriel. 2006. Choosing How to Choose Presidents: Parties, Military Rulers, and Presidential Elections in Latin America. Journal of Politics 68 (May): 421–63.Google Scholar
Negretto, Gabriel. 2009. Political Parties and Institutional Design: Explaining Constitutional Choice in Latin America. British Journal of Political Science 39 (January): 117–39.Google Scholar
Nolte, Detlef. 2009. Constitutional Change in Latin America: Politics and Policies. Paper presented at the 27th International Congress of the Latin American Studies Association, Rio de Janeiro, June 11–14.Google Scholar
Nolte, Detlef, and Schilling-Vacaflor, Almut. 2012. Introduction. In New Constitutionalism in Latin America: Promises and Practices, ed. Nolte, and Schilling-Vacaflor, . Farnham: Ashgate.Google Scholar
País, El (Madrid). 2015. Honduras modifica su Constitución para permitir la reelección. April 24.Google Scholar
Payne, Mark J., and Perusia, Juan Cruz. 2007. Reforming the Rules of the Game: Political Reform. In The State of State Reform in Latin America, ed. Lora, Eduardo. Washington, DC/Palo Alto: Inter-American Development Bank/Stanford University Press. 57–86.Google Scholar
Penfold, Michael, Corrales, Javier, and Hernández Jiménez, Gonzalo. 2014. Los invencibles: la reelección presidencial y los cambios constitucionales en América Latina. Revista de Ciencia Política 34, 3: 537–59.Google Scholar
Pérez-Liñán, Aníbal. 2007. Presidential Impeachment and the New Political Instability in Latin America. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Pérez-Liñán, Aníbal, and Angarita, Néstor Castañeda. 2012. Institutionalism. In Routledge Handbook of Latin American Politics, ed. Kingstone, Peter and Yashar, Deborah J.. New York: Routledge. 395–406.Google Scholar
Prensa, La (San Pedro Sula). 2015. Callejas: Yo ya fui presidente mi deseo es ganar para servir. March 12. www.laprensa.hn/honduras/821661-410/callejas-yo-ya-fui-presidente-mideseo-es-ganar-para-servir Google Scholar
Queirolo, Rosario. 2013. The Success of the Left in Latin America: Untainted Parties, Market Reforms, and Voting Behavior. Notre Dame: University of Notre Dame Press.Google Scholar
Raszewski, Eliana. 2012. Argentina's Fernández's popularity dives since election. Bloomberg, November 4. www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2012-11-04/argentina-fernandez-popularity-halves-in-year-since-re-election Google Scholar
Rebossio, Alejandro. 2012. Argentina comienza a debatir una segunda reelección de Fernández. El País (Madrid), November 4.Google Scholar
Reuters, . 2007. Paraguay president will not seek re-election. May 7.Google Scholar
Riani, Jorge. 2013. Refuerzan la presión por la re-reelección. La Nación (Buenos Aires), March 17.Google Scholar
Riedl, Rachel Beatty. 2015. The Advantages and Drawbacks of Presidential Term Limits as a Tool for Building Democracy in Africa. Scholars Strategy Network, March. www.scholarsstrategynetwork.org/sites/default/files/ssn-key-findings-riedl-on-presidential-term-limits-in-sub-saharan-africa.pdf Google Scholar
Samuels, David J., and Shugart, Matthew S.. 2010. Presidents, Parties, and Prime Ministers: How the Separation of Powers Affects Party Organization and Behavior. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Smink, Veronica. 2009. Paraguay: revuelo por reelección. Bbc Mundo, February 9.Google Scholar
Smink, Veronica. 2011. Paraguay: ¿Busca o no busca la reelección Lugo? Bbc Mundo, June 28.Google Scholar
Snyder, Richard, and Mahoney, James. 1999. The Missing Variable: Institutions and the Study of Regime Change. Review article. Comparative Politics 32 (October): 103–22.Google Scholar
Sondrol, Paul C. 1992. The Emerging New Politics of Liberalizing Paraguay: Sustained Civil-Military Control without Democracy. Journal of Interamerican Studies and World Affairs 34, 2 (Summer): 127–63.Google Scholar
Stokes, Susan. 2001. Mandates and Democracy: Neoliberalism by Surprise in Latin America. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Valenzuela, Arturo. 2004. Latin American Presidencies Interrupted. Journal of Democracy 15 (October): 5–19.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weyland, Kurt. 2003. Neopopulism and Neoliberalism in Latin America: How Much Affinity? Third World Quarterly 24 (December): 1095–1115.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: File

Corrales supplementary material

Appendices

Download Corrales supplementary material(File)
File 32.1 KB

A correction has been issued for this article:

Correction