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A Mathematical Projection of Population Growth in the Copan Valley, Honduras, A.D. 400-800

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 January 2017

Richard R. Paine ,
AnnCorinne Freter  and
David L. Webster
Richard R. Paine
Affiliation:
Department of Anthropology, University of Utah, 102 Stewart Building, Salt Lake City, UT 84112
AnnCorinne Freter
Affiliation:
Department of Sociology and Anthropology, Ohio University, Athens, OH 45701-2979
David L. Webster
Affiliation:
Department of Anthropology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802
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Abstract

Demographers use mathematical projections to estimate both future and past population in areas where they lack quality data. Such projections may be very useful in archaeological situations. In this analysis, we mathematically project population growth rates from Classic Maya settlement in the Copán Valley, Honduras, from A.D. 650-800 backward to A.D. 450 to estimate valley population levels during the Middle Classic. Projections based on the growth rate (r = .0098) that best describes Late Classic growth yield population estimates that are from 40 to 100 percent higher than the unsmoothed estimates for the Middle Classic calculated by Webster et al. (1992:189). However, they still indicate that Middle Classic Copán was a relatively small polity, with a population of approximately 2,400 by A.D. 550 and 6,400 by A.D. 650. The fact that population growth at Copán from the period A.D. 400-800 conforms well to exponential growth indicates that population growth in the valley was relatively unaffected by episodic events. Each of the three growth rates considered would have been sustainable in a preindustrial agrarian society.

Estimamos matemáticamente la taza de crecimiento de la población maya Clásica, situada en el Valle de Copán, en el período comprendido entre 650-800 d.C. hasta el año 450 d.C., con motivo de calcular el nivel poblacional de este valle en el período Clásico medio. Las proyecciones basadas en la taza de crecimiento (r = .0098), que mejor describe el período Clásico tardío han producido estimaciones poblacionales para el período Clásico de 40 a 100 por ciento más altas que los cálculos presentados para el Clásico medio por Webster et al. (1992:189). Sin embargo, todavía indican que durante el período Clásico medio el sitio de Copán fue relativamente pequeño, con una población de aproximada de 2,400 habitantes en el año 550 d.C. y de 6,400 habitantes para el año 650 d.C. El crecimiento poblacional de Copán se adecua al crecimiento exponencial, lo que indica que el valle no fue afectado por eventos episódicos. Cada una de las tres tazas de crecimiento consideradas podría haber sido sustentable en una sociedad agraria pre-industrial.

Type
Articles
Information
Latin American Antiquity , Volume 7 , Issue 1 , March 1996 , pp. 51 - 60
Copyright
Copyright © Society for American Archaeology 1996

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