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Probability elicitation for belief networks: issues to consider

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  15 February 2002

SILJA RENOOIJ
SILJA RENOOIJ
Affiliation:
Institute of Information and Computing Sciences, Utrecht University, PO Box 80.089, 3508 TB Utrecht, The [email protected]
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Abstract

Upon assessing probabilities for Bayesian belief networks, the knowledge and practical experience of experts is often the only available source of probabilistic information. It is important to realise that issues concerning human capabilities with respect to making judgements come into play when relying on experts for probability elicitation. A number of methods for the elicitation of probabilities are known from the field of decision analysis. These methods try, to some extent, to deal with those issues. I present here an overview of the issues to consider when relying on expert judgements and describe the methods that are available for expert elicitation, along with their benefits and drawbacks.

Type
Research Article
Information
The Knowledge Engineering Review , Volume 16 , Issue 3 , September 2001 , pp. 255 - 269
Copyright
© 2001 Cambridge University Press

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