Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-tf8b9 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-23T19:42:37.200Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Climate Change and Grapevines: A Simulation Study for the Mediterranean Basin*

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  16 December 2014

Roberto Ferrise ,
Giacomo Trombi ,
Marco Moriondo  and
Marco Bindi
Roberto Ferrise*
Affiliation:
Department of Agri-food Production and Environmental Sciences, University of Florence, Piazzale delle Cascine 18, 50144 Florence, Italy
Giacomo Trombi
Affiliation:
Department of Agri-food Production and Environmental Sciences, University of Florence, Piazzale delle Cascine 18, 50144 Florence, Italy; e-mail: [email protected].
Marco Moriondo
Affiliation:
CNR-IBIMET, Via G. Caproni 8, 50145 Florence, Italy; e-mail: [email protected].
Marco Bindi
Affiliation:
Department of Agri-food Production and Environmental Sciences, University of Florence, Piazzale delle Cascine 18, 50144 Florence, Italy; e-mail: [email protected].
*
(corresponding author). e-mail: [email protected].
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

The present paper aims to assess the impacts of climate change on grapevine cultivation in the Mediterranean basin by using three regional climatic models (RCMs), which were designed specifically for high-resolution simulation of climate in that region. RCM outputs were used to feed a grapevine growth simulation model, which was developed, tested, and calibrated for the Sangiovese variety. The study area was identified by implementing a bioclimatic classification of the regions based on the Winkler Index (ranging from 1,700 to 1,900 thermal units). The results indicated that the projected increasing temperatures will result in a general acceleration and shortening of the phenological stages compared to the present period. Accordingly, the reduction in time for biomass accumulation negatively affected the final yield. Few exceptions were found in the northern and central regions of the study area (southern France and western Balkans) for which changes in climatic conditions were not limiting and the crop benefited from the enhanced atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. (JEL Classifications: Q100, Q540)

Keywords

Climate changecrop modelgrapevineMediterranean basin
Type
Articles
Information
Journal of Wine Economics , Volume 11 , Issue 1 , May 2016 , pp. 88 - 104
Copyright
Copyright © American Association of Wine Economists 2014 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

*

This work was supported by the CIRCE EU FP6 Integrated Project, under Contract GOCE-036961. The authors thank Dr. Anne Whittaker for her proofreading as well as the anonymous reviewer for his/her comments and suggestions on an earlier version of the manuscript.

References

Amerine, M.A., and Winkler, A.T. (1944). Composition and quality of musts and wines of California grapes. Hilgardia, 15, 493–673.Google Scholar
Artale, V., Calmanti, S., Carillo, A., Dell'Aquila, A., Herrmann, M., Pisacane, G., Ruti, P.M., Sannino, G., Struglia, M.V., Giorgi, F., Bi, X., Pal, J.S., Rauscher, S., and the Protheus Group. (2010). An atmosphere–ocean regional climate model for the Mediterranean area: assessment of a present climate simulation. Climate Dynamics, 35, 721–740.Google Scholar
Ashenfelter, O., and Storchmann, K. (2014). Wine and climate change. American Association of Wine Economists, Working Paper No. 152, www.wine-economics.org/aawe/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/AAWE_WP152.pdf.Google Scholar
Ashenfelter, O., and Storchmann, K. (2010). Using a hedonic model of solar radiation to assess the economic effect of climate change: The case of Mosel valley vineyards. Review of Economics and Statistics, 92, 333–349.Google Scholar
Ashenfelter, O., Ashmore, D., and Lalonde, R. (1995). Bordeaux wine vintage quality and the weather. Chance, 8, 7–13.Google Scholar
Battaglini, A., Barbeau, G., Bindi, M., and Badeck, F.W. (2009). European winegrowers’ perceptions of climate change impact and options for adaptation. Regional Environmental Change 9, 61–73.Google Scholar
Bindi, M., Fibbi, L., Gozzini, B., Orlandini, S., and Miglietta, F. (1996). Modelling the impact of climate scenarios on yield and yield variability of grapevine. Climate Research, 7, 213–224.Google Scholar
Bindi, M., Miglietta, F., Gozzini, B., Orlandini, S., and Seghi, L. (1997a). A simple model for simulation of growth and development in grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.). I. Model description. Vitis, 36, 67–71.Google Scholar
Bindi, M., Miglietta, F., Gozzini, B., Orlandini, S., and Seghi, L. (1997b). A simple model for simulation of growth and development in grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.). II. Model validation. Vitis, 36, 73–76.Google Scholar
Bindi, M., Bellesi, S., Orlandini, S., Fibbi, L., Moriondo, M., and Sinclair, T. (2005). Influence of water deficit stress on leaf area development and transpiration of Sangiovese grapevines grown in pots. American Journal of Enology and Viticulture, 56, 68–72.Google Scholar
Challinor, A.J., Ewert, F., Arnold, A., Simelton, W., and Fraser, E. (2009). Crops and climate change: progress, trends, and challenges in simulating impacts and informing adaptation. Journal of Experiment Botany, 60, 2775–2789.Google Scholar
Chatfield, C. (1995). Model uncertainty, data mining and statistical-inference. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A Statistics, 158, 419–466.Google Scholar
Christensen, J.H., Hewitson, B., Busuioc, A., Chen, A., Gao, X., Held, I., Jones, R., Kolli, R.K., Kwon, W.T., Laprise, R., Magaña Rueda, V., Mearns, L., Menéndez, C.G., Räisänen, J., Rinke, A., Sarr, A., and Whetton, P. (2007). Regional climate projections. In Solomon, S. et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 847–940.Google Scholar
Elizalde, A. (2011). The water cycle in the Mediterranean region and the impacts of climate change. Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Reports on Earth System Science no. 103, Hamburg, www.mpimet.mpg.de/fileadmin/publikationen/Reports/WEB_BzE_103.pdf.Google Scholar
Fraga, H., Malheiro, A.C., Moutinho-Pereira, J., and Santos, J.A. (2012). An overview of climate change impacts on European viticulture. Food and Energy Security, 1, 94–110.Google Scholar
Fraga, H., Malheiro, A.C., Moutinho-Pereira, J., and Santos, J.A. (2013). Future scenarios for viticultural zoning in Europe: ensemble projections and uncertainties. International Journal of Biometeorology, 1–17. doi: 10.1007/s00484-012-0617-8Google ScholarPubMed
Gaál, M., Moriondo, M., and Bindi, M. (2012). Modelling the impact of climate change on the Hungarian wine regions using random forest. Applied Ecology and Environmental Research, 10 (2), 121–140.Google Scholar
Giannakopoulos, C., Le Sager, P., Bindi, M., Moriondo, M., Kostopoulou, E., and Goodess, C.M. (2009). Climatic changes and associated impacts in the Mediterranean resulting from a 2 C global warming. Global and Planetary Change, 68 (3), 209–224.Google Scholar
Giorgi, F., and Lionello, P. (2008). Climate change projections for the Mediterranean region. Global and Planetary Change, 63, 90–104.Google Scholar
Gualdi, S., Somot, S., Li, L., Artale, V., Adani, M., Bellucci, A., Braun, A., Calmanti, S., Carillo, A., Dell'Aquila, A., Déqué, M., Dubois, C., Elizalde, A., Harzallah, A., Jacob, S., L'Hélvéder, B., May, W., Oddo, P., Ruti, P., Sanna, A., Sannino, G., Scoccimarro, E., Sevault, F., and Navarra, A. (2013). The CIRCE simulations: Regional climate change projections with realistic representation of the Mediterranean Sea. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 94, 65–81.Google Scholar
Haerter, J.O., Hagemann, S., Moseley, C., and Piani, C. (2011). Climate model bias correction and the role of timescales. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 15, 1065–1079.Google Scholar
Hannah, L., Roehrdanz, P.R., Ikegami, M., Shepard, A.V., Shaw, M.R., Tabor, G., Zhi, L., Marquet, P.A., and Hijmans, R.J. (2013). Climate change, wine, and conservation. In proceedings of National Academy of Sciences, 110 (17), 6907–6912.Google Scholar
IPCC. (2007). Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report. Parry, M.L., Canziani, O.F., Palutikof, J.P., van der Linden, P.J., and Hanson, C.E. (eds.). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
IPCC. (2012). Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Field, C.B., Barros, V., Stocker, T.F., Qin, D., Dokken, D.J., Ebi, K.L., Mastrandrea, M.D., Mach, K.J., Plattner, G.-K., Allen, S.K., Tignor, M., and Midgley, P.M. (eds.). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Jones, G.V., and Davis, R.E. (2000). Climate influences on grapevine phenology, grape composition, and wine production and quality for Bordeaux, France. American Journal of Enology and Viticulture, 51, 249–261.Google Scholar
Jones, G.V., White, M.A., Cooper, O.R., and Storchmann, K. (2005). Climate change and global wine quality. Climatic Change, 73, 319–343.Google Scholar
Kimball, B.A., Kobayashi, K., and Bindi, M. (2002). Responses of agricultural crops to free-air CO 2 enrichment. Advances in Agronomy, 77, 293–368.Google Scholar
Luterbacher, J., et al. (2006). Mediterranean climate variability over the last centuries. A review. In Lionello, P., Malanotte-Rizzoli, P., and Boscolo, R. (eds.), Mediterranean Climate Variability. Amsterdam: Elsevier, 27–148.Google Scholar
Mira de Orduña, R. (2010). Climate change associated effects on grape and wine quality and production. Food Research International, 43, 1844–1855.Google Scholar
Moriondo, M., Giannakopoulos, C., and Bindi, M. (2011b). Climate change impact assessment: The role of climate extremes in crop yield simulation. Climatic Change, 104 (3–4), 679–701.Google Scholar
Moriondo, M., Bindi, M., Fagarazzi, C., Ferrise, R., and Trombi, G. (2011a). Framework for high-resolution climate change impact assessment on grapevines at a regional scale. Regional Environmental Change, 11(3), 53–567.Google Scholar
Moriondo, M., Jones, G.V., Bois, B., Dibari, C., Ferrise, R., Trombi, G., and Bindi, M. (2013). Projected shifts of wine regions in response to climate change. Climatic Change, 1–15.Google Scholar
Moriondo, M., Bindi, M., Kundzewicz, Z.W., Szwed, M., Chorynski, A., Matczak, P., Radziejewski, M., McEvoy, D., and Wreford, A. (2010). Impact and adaptation opportunities for European agriculture in response to climatic change and variability. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 15(7), 657–679.Google Scholar
Nakicenovic, N., and Swart, R. (eds.). (2000). Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Navarra, A., and Tubiana, L. (eds.). (2013). Regional Assessment of Climate Change in the Mediterranean. Volume 1: Air, Sea and Precipitation and Water. Dordrecht: Springer Science and Business Media.Google Scholar
New, M., and Hulme, M. (2000). Representing uncertainty in climate change scenarios: A Monte-Carlo approach. Integrated Assessment, 1, 203–213.Google Scholar
Olesen, J.E., and Bindi, M. (2002). Consequences of climate change for European agricultural productivity, land use and policy. European Journal of Agronomy, 16, 239–262.Google Scholar
Pearce, I., and Coombe, B.G. (2004). Grapevine phenology. In Dry, P. and Coombe, B.G. (eds.), Viticulture, Vol. 1: Resources. Adelaide: Winetitles, 150–166.Google Scholar
Randall, D.A., Wood, R.A., Bony, S., Colman, R., Fichefet, T., Fyfe, J., Kattsov, V., Pitman, A., Shukla, J., Srinivasan, J., Stouffer, R.J., Sumi, A., and Taylor, K.E. (2007). Climate Models and Their Evaluation. In Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K.B., Tignor, M., and Miller, H.L. (eds.), Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 589–662.Google Scholar
Sadras, V.O., and Petrie, P.R. (2011). Climate shifts in south-eastern Australia: Early maturity of Chardonnay, Shiraz and Cabernet-Sauvignon is associated with early onset rather than faster ripening. Australian Journal of Grape and Wine Research, 17, 199–205.Google Scholar
Storchmann, K. (2005). English weather and Rhine wine quality: An ordered probit model. Journal of Wine Research, 16, 105–119.Google Scholar
Storchmann, K. (2012). Wine economics. Journal of Wine Economics, 7(1), 1–33.Google Scholar
van der Goot, E. (1997). Technical description of interpolation and processing of meteorological data in CGMS. EC Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy.Google Scholar
Viner, D. (2002). A qualitative assessment of the sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts assessment studies. In Beniston, M. (ed.), Climatic Change: Implications for the Hydrological Cycle and for Water Management. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic, 139–149.Google Scholar
Webb, L.B., Whetton, P.H., and Barlow, E.W.R. (2011). Observed trends in winegrape maturity in Australia. Global Change Biology, 17(8), 2707–2719.Google Scholar
Webb, L.B., Whetton, P.H., and Barlow, E.W.R. (2008). Modelled impact of future climate change on the phenology of wine grapes in Australia. Australian Journal of Grape and Wine Research, 13, 165–175.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Webb, L.B. (2006). The impact of projected greenhouse gas-induced climate change on the Australian wine industry. PhD dissertation, Institute of Land and Food Resources University of Melbourne, Australia.Google Scholar
White, M.A., Diffenbaugh, N.S., Jones, G.V., Pal, J.S., and Giorgi, F. (2006). Extreme heat reduces and shifts United States premium wine production in the 21st century. PNAS, 103, 11217–11222.Google Scholar
Zou, L., Zhou, T., Li, L., and Zhang, J. (2010). East China summer rainfall variability of 1958–2000: Dynamical downscaling with a variable-resolution AGCM. Journal of Climate, 23, 6394–6408.Google Scholar