Some Remarks on ‘Probability’

Extract

Since games of chance have always exercised a fascination for people of all countries and at all times it is not to be wondered at that the theory of probability was first evolved from the dice-table. Possibly the earliest problem was to find the different probabilities of the various throws which can be made with three dice: this occurs in a document published in the fifteenth century, and the problem was taken up again by Cardan about a hundred years later. The first serious investigation into the laws of chance was, however, due to Pascal, who may be considered as the founder of the science. Pascal's attention was first drawn to the subject by a gambler who put to him problems relating to the game of ‘hasard.’ One particular problem seemed to Pascal of the utmost importance and led to a series of discussions between Pascal and Fermat, another equally eminent mathematician. The problem was the ‘Problem of Points’ and may be stated thus: Two players want each a given number of points to win a game; if they separate without finishing the game, how should the stakes be divided? Many variations of this were considered, even those where the players were not of equal skill, and although the problems would not be difficult of solution in light of modern knowledge, there was considerable divergence of opinion as to the correct methods to be applied.