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Population projections: Notes on the choice of bases

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  11 August 2014

P. R. Cox
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Extract

Any discussion of mortality, fertility or migration assumptions for population projections, or of the various technical questions that arise, must be preceded by some consideration of the nature and purpose of the work that has been undertaken. It should be asked why such calculations are necessary and what is expected from the results. Fundamentally, inquiry about the future of the population arises from a natural curiosity about man's surroundings in space and in time, and this does not seem to have been damped by past failures to foresee developments; otherwise, long-range projections would by now have ceased to be made, in view of the poor prospects of success. Beyond this, however, there are to-day a variety of practical reasons for which it is deemed necessary to estimate the future numbers of persons in given areas with such accuracy as is possible.

Type
Research Article
Information
Journal of the Staple Inn Actuarial Society , Volume 11 , Issue 2 , July 1952 , pp. 60 - 75
Copyright
Copyright © Institute of Actuaries Students' Society 1952

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References

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