Fifteen years have elapsed since the previous paper on this subject was read before the Institute, and it seems desirable to review the subsequent progress and to consider the present position in the light of the investigation into Annuitant Mortality just completed on behalf of the Institute and the Faculty of Actuaries.

It is not intended to deal with the matter in such full detail as on the last occasion, but to refer only to the more salient features—and even to those, more briefly.

In a report on the results of an investigation of the mortality experience of life annuitants (J.I.A., vol. liv, pp. 43–90), it was pointed out that selection may be divided into “temporary selection” and “class selection.” We felt that there were two forces operating at the moment of entry or selection—(a) an initial selection based on the state of health at the time, (b) a permanent force operating throughout the whole of the after lifetime, due to the class of lives involved. The special investigation then made showed that force (a) soon worked itself out, hence the expression temporary selection; force (b) was doubtless also initial since it came into operation at entry, but it appeared to be permanent from the fact that the mortality remained light practically until the limit of life. Although the present note is the outcome of that investigation, it is not proposed to confine it to annuitants but to consider it in its bearing upon any mortality experience.

During the discussion of Mr. Barrand's paper on the 1909 Act (J.I.A., vol. xlv, p. 257), the opinion was expressed that it would be desirable, at some future date, to consider in fuller detail some of the features of the Act which seemed at first sight to stand in need of revision.

The present paper is intended to initiate such a discussion, but it only deals with the Act from the Life standpoint; and it also omits all questions arising solely out of the annual accounts, these having been fully dealt with by Dr. A. E. Sprague in “Insurance Companies’ Accounts.”

The following synopsis of the points to be dealt with, by the opener of the discussion, was circulated with the notice of the meeting:

• (A) —The nature of the benefits usually granted.

  • (1) Disability benefit.

    • (a) Waiver of premiums during permanent total disability.

    • (b) Payment of an annuity during such disability.

The new investigation which is the subject of the present report relates to the experience of the years 1900-1920. The observations include the lives on which all Government life annuities have been granted, the experience under Savings Bank annuities being brought under examination for the first time. The experience under the two classes of annuities, which may for convenience be termed, respectively, National Debt Annuities and Savings Bank Annuities, has been separately investigated, and the broad results elicited are shown separately below.

The report on the mortality experience of life annuitants during the period 1900-1920 published in 1923 by the Institute of Actuaries and the Faculty of Actuaries, and the report issued in the present year on the “Mortality experience of Government life annuitants, 1900-1920”, have brought into prominence the necessity of considering in our calculations the probability of future improvements in vitality. The special intention of the present notes is to examine the methods by which this subject has been treated in the two reports, which will be referred to as the 1923 report and the 1924 report. It will be convenient to consider the subject specially in relation to female lives, and more particularly in relation to the ultimate mortality after 5 years of such lives.