On the Origin and Progress of the Calculus of Probabilities

Extract

The application of the doctrine of chances to questions connected with the money values of contingencies depending on human life is now become so common, in this and many other countries, that we may he apt to forget its origin and the process by which it arrived at its present degree of improvement. Although the history of this calculus may be well known to some members of this Institute, there may be others whose time is, perhaps, too occupied to allow of more than the mere study of the calculations and formulæ necessary for the daily routine of a Life Assurance Office, and who may not be aware of the number of other subjects to which, at an early period, the calculus of probabilities was suggested to be applied. I hope, therefore, that in taking a rapid glance at the changes and improvements effected since the first crude ideas on the subject, I may not only be able to excite an increased interest in the science, but induce a further extension of its usefulness.