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On the Further Development of Gompertz's Law

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  18 August 2016

William Matthew Makeham
Affiliation:
Institute of Actuaries.

Extract

In the article “Mortality”, in the Penny Cyclopæia, the late Professor De Morgan gave the following description of the law of mortality propounded by Gompertz in the paper presented to the Royal Society in 1825. “As this ingenious paper”, says De Morgan, “contains a deduction from a principle of high “probability, and terminates in a conclusion which accords in a “great degree with observed facts, it must always be considered “a very remarkable page in the history of the enquiry before “us…. There is in the human constitution a power of “resisting the effects of disease which increases from birth up to “a certain age, and diminishes from that time forwards.… “Mr. Gompertz assumes that the power to oppose destruction “loses equal proportions in equal times, &c, &c.” Gompertz's theory of mortality, then, is based upon the supposed physiological fact that the living human organism is endowed with a certain recuperative power, becoming (after a few years from birth) ever less and less efficient with the lapse of time, which he terms “the power to oppose destruction”, but which, for brevity, I will call “vital force”, the truth of which supposition is evidently a question for common observation.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © Institute and Faculty of Actuaries 1890

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References

page 153 note * Should any reader entertain a doubt of the correctness of this interpretation of Gompertz's words, I would beg to refer him to a passage in a later work by the same author, republished in vol. xvi of the Journal (see page 336). In showing that his law does not require that all individuals “should have ultimately the same length of life”, he commences by quoting the very extract from Article 4 which I have given above.