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On Mr. Makeham's Theory of Inverse Probabilities

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  18 August 2016

Edward L. Stabler
Edward L. Stabler
Affiliation:
Manhattan Life Insurance Company, New York
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Extract

In the Journal for July and October 1891 (J.I.A., xxix, 242 and 444), Mr. William Matthew Makeham published two papers “On the Theory of Inverse Probabilities.” In the first he obtained a new formula, and in the second he pointed out some applications of the formula. I desire to present some considerations which I think will show that this formula is not suitable for any application.

Type
Other
Information
Journal of the Institute of Actuaries , Volume 30 , Issue 3 , October 1892 , pp. 239 - 244
Copyright
Copyright © Institute and Faculty of Actuaries 1893

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References

* It should be remembered that this is deduced on the supposition that all proportions of white balls from 0 to 1, in the urn, are a priori equally probable —a very different case from the one under consideration, whatever the value of p.