Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-8ctnn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-28T09:09:17.407Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Newmarch, Cairnes and Jevons on the Gold Question and Statistics

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  11 June 2009

Extract

Statistical inferences have long been part of economic inquiry. But how were such inferences made and what logic was employed for them, in particular before the procedures called econometrics were developed? This question is raised in the present paper in relation to the discovery of gold in California in 1848 and in Australia in 1851. Different opinions were soon advanced on whether prices had risen as a result, and statistical inferences were often part of the arguments. I examine the arguments of three economists, William Newmarch (1820–82), John E. Cairnes (1823–75) and W. Stanley Jevons (1835–82), who all wrote about the gold question on several occasions.

Type
Articles
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1997

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Airy, G. B. 1861. On the Algebraic and Numerical Theory of Errors of Observations and the Combination of Observations, Macmillan, London.Google Scholar
Aldrich, J. 1987. “Jevons As Statistician: The Role of Probability,” Manchester School, 55, 233–57.Google Scholar
Aldrich, J. 1992. “Probability and Depreciation: A History of Stochastic Approach to Index NumbersHistory of Political Economy, 24, 657–87.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cairnes, J. E. 1859. “Laws according to which a Depreciation of the Precious Metals Consequent upon an Increase of Supply Takes Place, Considered in connection with the Recent Gold DiscoveriesJournal of the Dublin Statistical Society, 2, 236–69; reprinted in Cairnes, 1873.Google Scholar
Cairnes, J. E. 1863a. “Have The Discoveries Of Gold In Australia and California Lowered The Value Of Gold.Economist, May, 1863, 592–93, reprinted in Cairnes 1873.Google Scholar
Cairnes, J. E. 1863b. “The Consequences Of The Gold DiscoveriesEconomist, June, 1863, 704–6; reprinted in Cairnes 1873.Google Scholar
Cairnes, J. E. 1873. Essays in Political Economy, Theoretical and Applied, Macmillan, London.Google Scholar
Cairnes, J. E. 1874. Some Leading Principles of Political Economy Newly Expounded, Harper, New York.Google Scholar
Cairnes, J. E. 1875. The Character and Logical Method of Political Economy, 2d ed., Macmillan, London.Google Scholar
Chevalier, M. 1859. On the Probable Fall of the Value of Gold; translated by Cobden, R., Ireland, Manchester, 1859.Google Scholar
Cullen, M. J. 1975. The Statistical Movement in Early Victorian Britain, Harvester, New York.Google Scholar
De Morgan, A. 1838. An Essay on Probabilities, and on their Application to Life Insurance and Insurance Offices, Longman, London.Google Scholar
Edgeworth, F. Y. 1884a. Review of Investigations in Currency and Finance by Jevons, W. S., Academy, July, 3839.Google Scholar
Edgeworth, F. Y. 1884b. “Methods of StatisticsJubilee Volume of the Statistical Society, 181217.Google Scholar
Edgeworth, F. Y. 1886. “The Law Of Error and Elimination Of ChancePhilosophical Magazine, 21, 308–24.Google Scholar
Evelyn, G. S. 1798. “An Account Of Some Endeavours To Ascertain a Standard Of Weight and MeasurePhilosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, 88, 132–76.Google Scholar
Fetter, F. W. 1965. Development of British Monetary Orthodoxy, Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Fisher, I. 1927. The Making of Index Numbers, 3d ed., New York, Augustus M. Kelley, 1967.Google Scholar
Funkhouser, H. G. 1937. “Historical Development of the Graphical Representation of Statistical DataOsiris, 3, 269404.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Giffen, R. 1913. Statistics, Macmillan, London.Google Scholar
Jevons, W. S. 1863. A Serious Fall in The Value Of Gold Ascertained, London, Edward Stanford and Charing Cross; reprinted in Jevons 1909.Google Scholar
Jevons, W. S. 1865. “The Variation of Prices and The Value Of The Currency Since 1782Journal of the Statistical Society of London, 28, 294320; reprinted in Jevons 1909.Google Scholar
Jevons, W. S. 1869. “The Depreciation of Gold.Economist, 1869, 530–32; reprinted in Jevons 1909.Google Scholar
Jevons, W. S. 1874. The Principles of Science, Macmillan, London.Google Scholar
Jevons, W. S. 1909. Investigations in Currency and Finance, edited by Foxwell, H. S., 2d ed., Macmillan, London.Google Scholar
Jevons, W. S. 1973 and 1977. Papers and Correspondence of William Stanley Jevons, 2–3, edited by Black, R. D. C., Macmillan, London.Google Scholar
Kendall, M. G. 1969. “The Early History of Index Numbers.Review of the International Statistical Institute, 37, 112;CrossRefGoogle Scholar
reprinted in Kendall, M. G. and Plackett, R. L., eds., Studies in the History Of Statistics and Probability, 2, Griffin, London, 1977.Google Scholar
Keynes, J. M. 1951. Essays in Biography, 2nd ed., Horizon, New York.Google Scholar
Kim, J. 1995. “Jevons versus Cairnes On Exact Economic Laws” in Rima, I. H., ed., Measurement, Quantification and Economic Analysis, Routledge, London.Google Scholar
Koot, G. M. 1987. English Historical Economics, 1870–1926, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.Google Scholar
Laplace, P. S. 1814. A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities; translated by Truscott, F. W. and Emory, F. L., Dover, New York, 1951.Google Scholar
Leslie, T. C. 1865. “The New Gold Mines and Prices in Europe in 1865North British Review; reprinted in Leslie 1888.Google Scholar
Leslie, T. C. 1873a. “Economic Science and StatisticsAhenaeum; reprinted in Leslie 1888.Google Scholar
Leslie, T. C. 1873b. “Prices in England in 1873Fortnightly Review; reprinted in Leslie 1888.Google Scholar
Leslie, T. C. 1888. Essays in Political Economy, 2nd ed, Longman, London.Google Scholar
Ménard, C. 1987. “Why Was There No Probabilistic Revolution in Economic Thought” The Probabilistic Revolution, 2, 139–46, MIT Press, Cambridge.Google Scholar
Newmarch, W. 1853. The New Supplies of Gold, Pelham Richardson, London.Google Scholar
Newmarch, W. 1859. “Mercantile Reports of the Character and Results of the Trade of the United Kingdom During the Year 1858; With a Reference to the Progress of Prices, 1851–9Journal of the Statistical Society of London, 22, 76100.Google Scholar
Newmarch, W. 1860a. “Results of the Trade of the United Kingdom during the Year 1859; With Statements and Observations relative to the Course of Prices Since the Year 1844Journal of the Statistical Society of London, 23, 76100.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Newmarch, W. 1860b. “On Methods of Investigation as Regards Statistics of Prices and of Wages in the Principal TradesJournal of the Statistical Society of London, 23, 479–97.Google Scholar
Newmarch, W. 1861. “Results of the Trade of the United Kingdom during the Year 1860; With Statements and Observations relative to the Course of Prices Since the Year 1844Journal of the Statistical Society of London, 24, 74124.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Newmarch, W. 1869. “The Progress and Present Condition of Statistical InquiryJournal of the Statistical Society of London, 32, 359–90.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Patrick, P. J. F. 1960. “Leading British Statisticians of the Nineteenth CenturyJournal of the American Statistical Society, 55, 3038.Google Scholar
Playfair, W. 1786. The Commercial and Political Atlas, J. Wallis, London; 2d ed., 1787; 3d ed., 1801.Google Scholar
Political Economy Club. 1921. Political Economy Club, 1821–1920, Macmillan, London.Google Scholar
Porter, G. R. 1838. The Progress of the Nation, J. Murray, London, 2d ed., 1847, 3d ed., 1851.Google Scholar
Porter, T. M. 1986. The Rise of Statistical Thinking, 1820–1900, Princeton University Press, Princeton.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rist, C. 1938. History of Monetary and Credit Theory, Augustus M. Kelley, New York, 1966.Google Scholar
Schabas, M. 1990. A World Ruled by Number: William Stanley Jevons and the Rise of Mathematical Economics, Princeton University Press, Princeton.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schumpeter, J. A. 1954. History of Economic Analysis, Oxford University Press, New York.Google Scholar
Statistical Society, The Royal. 1934. Annals of the Royal Statistical Society, 18341934, London.Google Scholar
Stigler, S. M. 1982. “Jevons as StatisticianThe Manchester School, 50, 354–65.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stigler, S. M. 1986. The History of Statistics: The Measurement of Uncertainty before 1900, Harvard University Press, Cambridge.Google Scholar
Todhunter, I. 1865. A History of the Mathematical Theory of Probability, Chelssea, New York, 1949.Google Scholar
Tooke, T. and Newmarch, W. 1857. A History of Prices and the State of the Circulation, 5–6, P. S. King, London, 1928.Google Scholar
Walker, H. M. 1935. “Playfair and His ChartsEconomic History, 3, 103–9.Google Scholar
Westergaard, H. 1932. Contributions to the History of Statistics, P. S. King, London.Google Scholar