Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-7cvxr Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-26T07:44:22.256Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

How political trust matters in emergent democracies: evidence from East and Southeast Asia

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  21 February 2018

O. Fiona Yap
O. Fiona Yap*
Affiliation:
Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, Australia E-mail: [email protected]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

How does political trust affect the competing pressures of policy versus political performance in emergent democracies? Studies suggest that political trust buffers against these pressures, but empirical evidence is lacking in regard to if or how, given the focus in the literature on mature democracies where democratic institutions and practices are unlikely to be upended by either policy or political underperformance. However, in emergent democracies where the risks of democratic reversal loom large, the distinction is highly relevant. This article investigates how political trust matters in emergent democracies, specifically, if political trust buffers against public pressures, and whether it is system-directed versus incumbent-directed, for East and Southeast Asia. The evidence from multiple waves of survey data provides three useful insights: first, it shows that political trust supersedes economic expectations in support for the democratising system; this supports political trust as a buffer for the political system and is system-directed. Second, political trust goes hand-in-hand with economic performance to explain support for the incumbent government. This finding clarifies that political trust does not buffer the government against public pressure for performance. Third, taken together, the results show that economic growth may keep a government in office but institution-building leads to political trust that undergirds the political system, so that institution-building is a priority for stability in emergent democracies. These results expand the political trust literature to underpin democratic progression and consolidation issues that are unique to emergent democracies.

Keywords

East and Southeast Asiaemergent democraciesincumbent approvalpolitical trustsystem support
Type
Research Article
Information
Journal of Public Policy , Volume 39 , Issue 2 , June 2019 , pp. 295 - 328
Copyright
© Cambridge University Press, 2018 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

*

A previous version of the article was presented at the East Asia Peace Research Conference, 2014, jointly held by the Peace Research Institute Oslo, Uppsala University and Peking University.

References

REFERENCES

ABC News (2014) Thailand Coup: Army Seizes Control of Government to Restore “Peace”, 23 May, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-22/thailand-coup-as-army-takes-control-of-government/5471734 (accessed 10 December 2017).Google Scholar
Anderson, C. J. and Tverdova, Y. V. (2003) Corruption, Political Allegiances, and Attitudes Toward Government in Contemporary Democracies. American Journal of Political Science 47(1): 91–109.Google Scholar
BBC News (2015) Thailand’s Controversial Draft Constitution Explained, 6 September, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-34149522 (accessed 10 December 2017).Google Scholar
Catterberg, G. and Moreno, A. (2006) The Individual Bases of Political Trust: Trends in New and Established Democracies. International Journal of Public Opinion Research 18(1): 31–48.Google Scholar
Chen, M.-T. (2012) Taiwan in 2011. Asian Survey 52(1): 72–80.Google Scholar
Christensen, T. O. M. and LÆGreid, P. E. R. (2005) Trust in Government: The Relative Importance of Service Satisfaction, Political Factors, and Demography. Public Performance & Management Review 28(4): 487–511.Google Scholar
Chu, Y.-h (2007) Taiwan in 2006: A Year of Political Turmoil. Asian Survey 47(1): 44–51.Google Scholar
Citrin, J. (1974) Comment: The Political Relevance of Trust in Government. American Political Science Review 68(3): 973–988.Google Scholar
Citrin, J. and Green, D. P. (1986) Presidential Leadership and the Resurgence of Trust in Government. British Journal of Political Science 16(4): 431–453.Google Scholar
Clausen, B., Kraay, A. and Nyiri, Z. (2011) Corruption and Confidence in Public Institutions: Evidence from a Global Survey. The World Bank Economic Review 25(2): 212–249.Google Scholar
CNN (2010) Timeline: Thailand’s Political Crisis, 19 May, http://edition.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/asiapcf/05/17/thailand.timeline/index.html (accessed 10 December 2017).Google Scholar
CNN-Philippines (2016) Official Count: Duterte is New President, Robredo is Vice President, 30 May, http://cnnphilippines.com/news/2016/05/27/official-count-duterte-president-robredo-vp.html (accessed 10 December 2017).Google Scholar
Cooper, C. A., Knotts, H. G. and Brennan, K. M. (2008) The Importance of Trust in Government for Public Administration: The Case of Zoning. Public Administration Review 68(3): 459–468.Google Scholar
Cordova, A. and Seligson, M. (2009) Economic Crisis and Democracy in Latin America. PS: Political Science and Politics 42(4): 673–678.Google Scholar
Dahlberg, S., Linde, J. and Holmberg, S. (2015) Democratic Discontent in Old and New Democracies: Assessing the Importance of Democratic Input and Governmental Output. Political Studies 63(1 suppl): 18–37.Google Scholar
Dalton, R. J. (2005) The Social Transformation of Trust in Government. International Review of Sociology 15(1): 133–154.Google Scholar
Dalton, R., Van Sickle, A. and Weldon, S. (2010) The Individual-institutional Nexus of Protest Behavior. British Journal of Political Science 40(1): 51–73.Google Scholar
Damico, A. J., Conway, M. M. and Damico, S. B. (2000) Patterns of Political Trust and Mistrust: Three Moments in the Lives of Democratic Citizens. Polity 32(3): 377–400.Google Scholar
Doorenspleet, R. (2012) Critical Citizens, Democratic Support and Satisfaction in African Democracies. International Political Science Review 33(3): 279–300.Google Scholar
Duch, R. M. (2001) A Developmental Model of Heterogeneous Economic Voting in New Democracies. The American Political Science Review 95(4): 895–910.Google Scholar
Easton, D. (1975) A Re-Assessment of the Concept of Political Support. British Journal of Political Science 5(4): 435–457.Google Scholar
Evans, G. and Whitefield, S. (1995) The Politics and Economics of Democratic Commitment: Support for Democracy in Transition Societies. British Journal of Political Science 25(4): 485–514.Google Scholar
Fox, J. (2015) Political Secularism, Religion, and the State: A Time Series Analysis of Worldwide Data. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Freedom House (1975–2015) Freedom in the World. Washington, DC: Freedom House.Google Scholar
Gabel, M. and Whitten, G. D. (1997) Economic Conditions, Economic Perceptions, and Public Support for European Integration. Political Behavior 19(1): 81–96.Google Scholar
Gibson, J. L. (2001) Social Networks, Civil Society, and the Prospects for Consolidating Russia’s Democratic Transition. American Journal of Political Science 45(1): 51–68.Google Scholar
Gomez, B. T. and Wilson, J. M. (2006) Cognitive Heterogeneity and Economic Voting: A Comparative Analysis of Four Democratic Electorates. American Journal of Political Science 50(1): 127–145.Google Scholar
Grosjean, P., Ricka, F. and Senik, C. (2013) Learning, Political Attitudes and Crises: Lessons From Transition Countries. Journal of Comparative Economics 41(2): 490–505.Google Scholar
Haggard, S. and Moon, C.-I. (1990) Institutions and Economic Policy: Theory and a Korean Case Study. World Politics 42(2): 210–237.Google Scholar
Hetherington, M. J. (1998) The Political Relevance of Political Trust. The American Political Science Review 92(4): 791–808.Google Scholar
International Foundation for Electoral Systems (1980–2017) Election Guide. Washington, DC: International Foundation for Electoral Systems. http://www.electionguide.org/ (accessed 10 December 2017).Google Scholar
Jakarta Globe (2014) Red-and-White Coalition Poised to Control the MPR, 6 October, http://jakartaglobe.id/news/red-white-coalition-poised-control-mpr/ (accessed 10 December 2017).Google Scholar
Kennedy, P. (2009) A Guide to Econometrics. Sixth edition. Cambridge: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Keele, L. (2007) Social Capital and the Dynamics of Trust in Government. American Journal of Political Science 51(2): 241–254.Google Scholar
Kim, J.-Y. (2005) “Bowling Together” Isn’t a Cure-All: The Relationship Between Social Capital and Political Trust in South Korea. International Political Science Review 26(2): 193–213.Google Scholar
Kim, S. (2010) Public Trust in Government in Japan and South Korea: Does the Rise of Critical Citizens Matter? Public Administration Review 70(5): 801–810.Google Scholar
Korea Herald (2014) DP Chair-Ahn Meeting Yields No Results, 27 February, http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20140227001109 (accessed 10 December 2017).Google Scholar
Lacy, D. and Christenson, D. P. (2017) Who Votes for the Future? Information, Expectations, and Endogeneity in Economic Voting. Political Behavior 39(2): 347–375.Google Scholar
Lee, E. W. Y. and Haque, M. S. (2006) The New Public Management Reform and Governance in Asian NICs: A Comparison of Hong Kong and Singapore. Governance 19(4): 605–626.Google Scholar
Levi, M. and Stoker, L. (2000) Political Trust and Trustworthiness. Annual Review of Political Science 3(1): 475–507.Google Scholar
Mainwaring, S. and Zoco, E. (2007) Political Sequences and the Stabilization of Interparty Competition: Electoral Volatility in Old and New Democracies. Party Politics 13(2): 155–178.Google Scholar
Manila Times (2016) Police Drug Dealers Should Be Killed, 5 June, http://www.manilatimes.net/police-drug-dealers-should-be-killed/266162/ (accessed 10 December 2017).Google Scholar
Marien, S. and Hooghe, M. (2011) Does Political Trust Matter? An Empirical Investigation Into the Relation Between Political Trust and Support for Law Compliance. European Journal of Political Research 50(2): 267–291.Google Scholar
Mattes, R. and Bratton, M. (2007) Learning About Democracy in Africa: Awareness, Performance, and Experience. American Journal of Political Science 51(1): 192–217.Google Scholar
Mazziotta, M. and Pareto, A. (2013) Methods for Constructing Composite Indices: One for All or All for One. Rivista Italiana di Economia Demografia e Statistica 67(2): 67–80.Google Scholar
Michelitch, K., Morales, M., Owen, A. and Tucker, J. A. (2012) Looking to the Future: Prospective Economic Voting in 2008 Presidential Elections. Electoral Studies 31(4): 838–851.Google Scholar
Miller, A. H. (1974) Political Issues and Trust in Government: 1964–1970. American Political Science Review 68(3): 951–972.Google Scholar
Mishler, W. and Rose, R. (2001) Political Support for Incomplete Democracies: Realist vs. Idealist Theories and Measures. International Political Science Review/Revue internationale de science politique 22(4): 303–320.Google Scholar
Newton, K. (2001) Trust, Social Capital, Civil Society, and Democracy. International Political Science Review 22(2): 201–214.Google Scholar
Norris, P. (1999) Critical Citizens: Global Support for Democratic Government. Oxford: OUP.Google Scholar
Philippine Daily Inquirer (2016a) From 3 to 300, PDP_Laban Forms “Supermajority” in House, 26 May, http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/787547/from-3-to-300-pdp-laban-forms-supermajority-in-house (accessed 10 December 2017).Google Scholar
Philippine Daily Inquirer (2016b) Corrupt Journalists Legitimate Targets, 2 June, http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/788750/corrupt-journalists-legitimate-targets (accessed 10 December 2017).Google Scholar
Philippine Daily Inquirer (2017) No Limit to Martial Law Powers, SC Rules, 7 July, http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/911707/no-limit-to-martial-law-powers-sc-rules (accessed 10 December 2017).Google Scholar
Philippine Star (2015) Noy Touts Economic Gains, 27 Julyu, http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2015/07/27/1481417/noy-touts-economic-gains (accessed 10 December 2017).Google Scholar
Philippine Star (2016) Noy: Stop Marcos Return, 26 February, http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2016/02/26/1556973/noy-stop-marcos-return (accessed 10 December 2017).Google Scholar
Pickup, M. and Evans, G. (2013) Addressing the Endogeneity of Economic Evaluations in Models of Political Choice. Public Opinion Quarterly 77(3): 735–754.Google Scholar
Polidano, C. (2000) Measuring Public Sector Capacity. World Development 28(5): 805–822.Google Scholar
Prasirtsuk, K. (2015) Thailand in 2014: Another Coup, a Different Coup? Asian Survey 55(1): 200–206.Google Scholar
Prasirtsuk, K. (2016) Thailand in 2015: Bill, Blast, and Beyond. Asian Survey 56(1): 168–173.Google Scholar
Reich, G. M. (1999) Coordinating Restraint: Democratization, Fiscal Policy and Money Creation in Latin America. Political Research Quarterly 52(4): 729–751.Google Scholar
Reuters (2016) Thai Election in 2017 Even If Constitution is Rejected: PM, 26 January, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-thailand-election/thai-election-in-2017-even-if-constitution-is-rejected-pm-idUSKCN0V40WS (accessed 10 December 2017).Google Scholar
Sander, T. H. and Putnam, R. D. (2010) Still Bowling Alone?: The Post-9/11 Split. Journal of Democracy 21(1): 9–16.Google Scholar
Sanders, D. (2000) The Real Economy and the Perceived Economy in Popularity Functions: How Much Do Voters Need To Know?: A Study of British Data, 1974–97. Electoral Studies 19(2): 275–294.Google Scholar
Schafferer, C. (2009) The Parliamentary Election in Thailand, December 2007. Electoral Studies 28(1): 167–170.Google Scholar
Shin, D.-C. and Lee, J.-C. (2006) The Korea Democracy Barometer Surveys 1997-2004. Aberdeen, UK: University of Aberdeen.Google Scholar
Shin, D. C. and McDonough, P. (1999) The Dynamics of Popular Reactions to Democratization in Korea. Journal of Public Policy 19(1): 1–32.Google Scholar
Stevenson, R. T. and Duch, R. (2013) The Meaning and Use of Subjective Perceptions in Studies of Economic Voting. Electoral Studies 32(2): 305–320.Google Scholar
Stimson, J. (2015) Tides of Consent: How Public Opinion Shapes American Politics. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Stockton, H. (2001) Political Parties, Party Systems, and Democracy in East Asia: Lessons from Latin America. Comparative Political Studies 34(1): 94–119.Google Scholar
Stubbs, R. (2011) The East Asian Developmental State and the Great Recession: Evolving Contesting Coalitions. Contemporary Politics 17(2): 151–166.Google Scholar
Taipei Times (2013) Ma’s Approval Rating Plunges to 9.2 Percent, 16 September, http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2013/09/16/2003572243 (accessed 10 December 2017).Google Scholar
Taiwan News (2014) KMT Suffers Devastating Blow, 29 November, https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/2632784 (accessed 10 December 2017).Google Scholar
Tang, M. and Huhe, N. (2014) The Variant Effect of Decentralization on Trust in National and Local Governments in Asia. Political Studies 64(1): 216–234.Google Scholar
Torcal, M. (2014) The Decline of Political Trust in Spain and Portugal. American Behavioral Scientist 58(12): 1542–1567.Google Scholar
Uslaner, E. (2001) Is Washington Really the Problem? In Hibbing J. and Theiss-Morse E. (eds.), What Is It About Government That Americans Dislike? New York: Cambridge University Press, 118–133.Google Scholar
Van de Walle, S. and Bouckaert, G. (2003) Public Service Performance and Trust in Government: The Problem of Causality. International Journal of Public Administration 26(8–9): 891–913.Google Scholar
Wagle, U. (2000) The Policy Science of Democracy: The Issues of Methodology and Citizen Participation. Policy Sciences 33(2): 207–223.Google Scholar
Yap, O. F. (2013a) Economic Performance and Democratic Support in Asia’s Emergent Democracies. Comparative Political Studies 46(4): 48–512.Google Scholar
Yap, O. F. (2013b) When Do Citizens Demand Punishment of Corruption?. Australian Journal of Political Science 48(1): 57–70.Google Scholar
Yap, O. F. (2015) South Korea in 2014: A Tragedy Reveals the Country’s Weaknesses. Asian Survey 55(1): 132–141.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: Link

Yap Dataset

Dataset

http://dx.doi.org/10.7910/DVN/EUXWZI
Link