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Probabilistic Analysis of the Impact of Vessel Speed Restrictions on Navigational Safety: Accounting for the Right Whale Rule

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  02 August 2017

Matteo Convertino  and
L. James Valverde Jr.
Matteo Convertino*
Affiliation:
(HumNat Lab, Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota Twin-Cities, MN) (Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota Twin-Cities, MN) (Bioinformatics and Computational Biology Program, University of Minnesota Twin-Cities)
L. James Valverde Jr.
Affiliation:
(US Department of Energy, Headquarters, Washington, DC)
*
(E-mail: [email protected])
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Abstract

The Right Whale Sighting Advisory System (RWSAS) is a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Fisheries program designed to reduce collisions between vessels and critically endangered North Atlantic right whales. The vessel speed restriction that is part of the RWSAS presents navigation stakeholders with numerous challenges, owing to concerns about increased risks of ship grounding and collisions within ports. In this paper, we present a multi-methodology framework for assessing the impact of the vessel speed restriction on navigational safety. Empirically, we base our discussion in a first-order analysis of ship grounding risk for the Charleston Entrance Channel. Our analysis proceeds in three parts. We begin by using fault and event tree analyses to assess a relevant set of grounding-related event progression and failure probabilities. The influence of alternative vessel speed restrictions on ship grounding risk are then explored via a Bayesian network model that utilises the previously specified fault and event tree models for its partial specification and enumeration. Our analysis suggests that the speed restriction can, under certain reasonable assumptions, be seen to adversely impact the risk of ship grounding accidents in the Charleston Entrance Channel. We conclude with a summary of our findings and recommendations for future research.

Keywords

WhalesSpeed RestrictionOperations ResearchModellingRisk Management
Type
Research Article
Information
The Journal of Navigation , Volume 71 , Issue 1 , January 2018 , pp. 65 - 82
Copyright
Copyright © The Royal Institute of Navigation 2017 

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