Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-xbtfd Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-07T03:32:41.514Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Modelling Navigational Risk and Oil Spill Probabilities

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  21 October 2009

Tony K. S. Quon  and
George E. Bushell
Tony K. S. Quon
Affiliation:
(University of Ottawa)
George E. Bushell
Affiliation:
(Consulting and Audit Canada)
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

This paper examines first a statistical modelling of the number of navigational accidents (collisons, groundings and strikings) involving tankers and freighters in Canadian waters; it then looks at a direct method of modelling oil spill frequency and magnitude, given a navigational accident. The former is used to examine various hypotheses in the literature regarding the impact of various factors on navigational risk. The latter is based on a direct probability tree analysis which allows the estimation of detailed oil spill impacts by facilitating the examination of representative spill sizes.

Keywords

1. Risk analysis2. Collisions3. Groundings4. Strikings5. Pollution.
Type
Research Article
Information
The Journal of Navigation , Volume 47 , Issue 3 , September 1994 , pp. 390 - 402
Copyright
Copyright © The Royal Institute of Navigation 1994

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

1Quon, T. K. S., Bushell, G. E. and Laube, J. A. (1992). Risk analysis of vessel traffic systems. Maritime Policy and Management, 19, 319.Google Scholar
2 Consulting and Audit Canada (1991). Canadian Coast Guard Pollution Prevention Program Review.Google Scholar
3 World Information Systems (1991). Major Tanker Spills Worldwide: Collisions, Groundings and Rammings– 1978–90.Google Scholar
4 Consulting and Audit Canada (1991). Vessel Traffic Services Update Study.Google Scholar
5Yamaguchi, A. and Sakaki, S. (1971). Traffic surveys in Japan. This Journal, 24, 526.Google Scholar
6Lewison, G. R. G. (1978). The risk of a ship encounter leading to a collision. This Journal, 31 384.Google Scholar
7Fujii, Y. (1977). Development of marine traffic engineering in Japan. This Journal, 30, 88.Google Scholar
8Barratt, M. J. (1977). Encounters, near misses and collisions at sea. Proceedings of the IMA Conference on Mathematical Aspects of Marine Traffic. London, p. 161.Google Scholar
9Moon, J. R. and Higgins, J. (1977). Mathematical aspects of marine casualty statistics. Proceedings of the IMA Conference on Mathematical Aspects of Marine Traffic. London, p. 52.Google Scholar
10Abdel-Galil, E. M. (1981). Marine traffic organization in international waters. Fourth International Symposium on VTS. Bremen, p. 78.Google Scholar
11Kostilainen, V. and Tuovinen, P. (1980). Casualties to tankers in the Baltic, 1960–1975. This Journal, 33, 380.Google Scholar
2Brolsma, J. U. (1979). Netherlands Maritime Institute analysis of recent ship accidents. Safety at Sea, March, p. 14.Google Scholar
13 op. cit.Google Scholar
14Goodwin, E. M., Lamb, W. G. P. and Kemp, J. F. (1983). Quantitative measurements of navigational safety. This Journal, 36, 418.Google Scholar
15Glansdorp, C. C., Kemp, J. F., Goodwin, E. M. and Tresfon, R. (1986). Quantification of navigational risk in European waters. This Journal, 39, 90.Google Scholar
16Wennick, C. J. (1992). Collision and grounding risk analysis for ships navigating in confined waters. This Journal, 45, 80.Google Scholar
17Neter, J., Wasserman, W. and Kutner, M. H. (1990). Applied Linear Statistical Models. Irwin.Google Scholar
18Devanney, J. W. and Stewart, R. J. (1974). Bayesian analysis of oil spill statistics. Marine Technology, October, p. 365.Google Scholar
19Cuming, J. A. and Jenssen, T. K. (1984). Risk analysis of shipping and offshore operation. This Journal, 37, 37.Google Scholar
20Brok, J. F. C. and van der Vet, R. P. (1984). A method for the analysis and processing of marine collision data. This Journal, 37, 49.Google Scholar
21Meade, , LaPointe, and Anderson, (1983). Multivariate analysis of worldwide tanker casualties. Proceedings of the 1983 Oil Spill Conference. March, p. 553–557.Google Scholar