The Effect of Blunders on Collision Risk Calculations

Extract

One method of controlling aircraft is to assign each a given track, the distance between successive tracks being sufficiently great to ensure that the collision risk is very low. Most approaches to the problem of stipulating what this spacing should be, assume that the possible divergences of an aircraft about its preassigned path follow a Gaussian distribution with a standard deviation obtained by considering all the usual sources of navigational error (e.g. compass error and fixing error) together with meteorological errors due to inaccuracies in forecasting.