A Case of Random Collision Probabilities

Extract

In the contribution to the joint Royal Institute of Navigation/Royal Ocean Racing Club meeting on Safety of Navigation under Sail (p. 467), an expression was quoted for the random probability of collision in the case of a large, relatively fast ship passing through a concentration of smaller craft. It was not appropriate to discuss the derivation of the expression in the particular circumstances of the meeting but the methodology may be of some general interest and it is therefore outlined in this note.