III—The Effect of Darkness on the Probability of Collision and Stranding

Extract

There is no doubt that visibility influences the probability of collision and stranding and even a full moon, which gives a brightness of only 0·2 lux, seems to reduce the probability compared with a dark night; there is a much greater difference in the brightness by day (several thousand lux even with cloud) and at night. However the number of accidents in a seaway is influenced by many factors, such as traffic density, average speed, encounter condition, visibility, the helmsman's skill, availability of information &c. Of these factors, traffic density has most influence on the probability and this influence must be removed in order to study the influence of brightness. The present writer has shown that the danger of collision is roughly proportional to the square of the traffic density, and therefore proportional to the square of the traffic volume. Diurnal changes in the number of accidents and in traffic volume are therefore used to estimate the ratio of the danger by day and by night.