The Growth of Aircraft Movements by 1985

Extract

The paper outlines a method used for forecasting the growth in aircraft movements between city pairs and at terminal areas, region by region, by 1985. It also determines the year by which this growth will have been achieved if the rate of growth is higher or lower than assumed. These results are examined in relation to the magnitude of the task which can be expected to face the industry in the mid-1980s. The paper was presented at the 19th Technical Conference of I.A.T.A., Dublin, October 1972.

In order to have any meaningful discussion on the handling of air traffic in the long-term future it is essential to have some idea of what will be the traffic volume. For the purposes of this paper the period of the mid-1980s has been chosen for the following reasons. Firstly there is a need to establish long-term system objectives; in the past we have tended endlessly to patch up existing systems without any clear idea of where we wanted to get to. The motto ‘evolution not revolution’ is important but it is meaningful only if we have a clear target for the evolutionary process. Secondly the period chosen, fifteen or so years hence, is far enough ahead to permit airlines and governments to amortize existing investments and should permit discussions free from inhibitions of an industrial nature such as fears of redundancy.