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The Economic Impact of the Nigerian Civil War

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  11 November 2008

E. Wayne Nafziger
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Extract

Few events alter the socio-economic structure of a country as radically as the convulsions and displacements concomitant with war and political upheaval. In Nigeria the two coups d'état of 1966 and the civil war of 1967–1970 have had a profound effect on economic activity, and in turn have been affected by economic variables. In this study the political variable will generally be treated as independent and the economic variable as dependent, despite the fact that in the period after independence in 1960, tendencies towards political and economic disintegration reinforced each other.1

Type
Article
Information
The Journal of Modern African Studies , Volume 10 , Issue 2 , July 1972 , pp. 223 - 245
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1972

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References

Page 223 note 1 Nigeria, with 55.7 million persons according to the 1963 census, is the country in Africa with the largest population and perhaps the greatest degree of ethnic and cultural diversity. Annual Abstract of Statistics: Nigeria, 1967 (Lagos, 1968), p. 12.

Page 227 note 1 The Nigerian pound, which was on par with sterling before its devaluation in November 1967, exchanges for £UK1.17 or $US3.o4 (as of December 1971).

Page 227 note 2 Gross Domestic Product of Nigeria, 1958/1959–1966/1967 (Lagos, 1968); Second National Development Plan, 1970–1974: programme of post-war reconstruction and development (Lagos, 1970), p. 21; and Economic and Statistical Review, 1970 (Lagos, 1971), p. 3.

Page 227 note 3 Second National Development Plan, p. 20.

Page 227 note 4 Ibid. p. 77; Eke, Ifagun I. U., ‘Population of Nigeria, 1952–1965,’ in Nigerian Journal of Economic and Social Studies (Ibadan), VIII, 3, 11 1968, pp. 308–9;Google Scholar and T. Yesufu, M., ‘Manpower and Educational Objectives for Nigeria's Reconstruction and Development’ Conference on National Reconstruction and Development in Nigeria, University of Ibadan 24–29 03 1969, p. 8.Google Scholar

Page 228 note 1 Cf. Zukerman, Morris E., ‘Nigerian Crisis: economic impact on the North,’ in The Journal of Modern African Studies (Cambridge), VIII, 1, 04 1970, pp, 44–5.Google Scholar

Page 228 note 2 Central Bank of Nigeria, Annual Report and Statement of Account, for the Year ended 31st December 1966 (Lagos, 1967), pp. 36 and 38.Google Scholar

Page 229 note 1 Aluko, S. A., ‘Wages, Costs and Prices,’ Reconstruction and Development Conference, Ibadan, 1969, pp. 5–10;Google Scholar and Central Bank of Nigeria, Annual Report and Statement of Accounts for the Year ended 31st December 1967 (Lagos, 1968), p. 24.Google Scholar

Page 229 note 2 Central Bank of Nigeria, Annual Report and Statement of Accounts for the Year ended 31st December 1970 (Lagos, 1971), pp. 37 and 39.Google Scholar

Page 229 note 3 Central Bank, Annual Report, 1967, p. 24; Central Bank of Nigeria, Annual Report and Statement of Accounts for the Year ended 31st December 1968 (Lagos, 1969), p. 27;Google Scholar Yesufu, loc. cit. pp. 8 and 15–18; Central Bank of Nigeria, Annual Report and Statement of Accounts for the Year ended 31st December 1969 (Lagos, 1970), p. 19;Google Scholar and Central Bank, Monthly Report, May 1971 p. 18. See Callaway, Archibald, ‘Creating Employment for Nigeria's School Leavers,’ in Administration: the quarterly review of the Institute of Administration, University of Ife (Ibadan), III 1, 10 1968, p. 1,Google Scholar for the definition of the rate of unemployment.

Page 230 note 1 ‘Nigeria's Post-War Prospects,’ in West Africa (London), 25 April 1970, p. 45.

Page 230 note 2 Central Bank, Annual Report, 1966, pp. 40–74; 1967, pp. 27–56; 1968, pp. 30–63; and 1969, pp. 33–67. The expansionary impact of borrowing by the Federal Government to finance the deficit was modest – especially prior to 1969. It is true that the increment in Central Bank credit operations, largely to the Government, had a stimulating effect on the economy. However, commerical bank credit grew only slightly during 1967–1968, as most of the increased lending to the Government was at the expense of the private sector. Non-bank holdings of Treasury bills and Development Stock had little impact on aggregate demand, as these holdings were mostly in lieu of commercial paper.

Page 230 note 3 Economic and Statistical Review, 1970, p. 12.

Page 231 note 1 Sources: Central Bank, Annual Report, 1967, p. 58; 1968, p. 65; and 1969, p. 69. ‘Non-oil’ refers to all other sectors of the economy except the oil prospecting and mining companies.

Page 232 note 1 Ayida, A. Akene, ‘Development Objectives,’ Reconstruction and Development Conference, 1969, p. 22.Google Scholar

Page 232 note 2 Central Bank, Annual Report, 1967, p. 63. Nigeria, however, decided not to devalue its currency. Devaluation probably would not have improved the balance of trade; the sums of the elasticities of demand for exports, consisting mainly of primary products, and the demand for imports, limited mostly to necessities as a result of trade restrictions, appeared low.

Page 233 note 1 Central Bank, Annual Report, 1968, p. 70.

Page 233 note 2 Ibid. pp. 70–1; and ‘Nigeria,’ in Standard Bank Review (London), March 1970, p. 18.

Page 234 note 1 Petroleum Press Service (London), January 1968, p. 7; Pearson, Scott R., ‘Nigerian Petroleum: implications for medium-term planning,’ in Eicher, Carl K. and Liedholm, Carl (eds.), Growth and Development of the Nigerian Economy (East Lansing, 1970), p. 357;Google Scholar and Nigerian Institute of Social and Economic Research, ‘Economic and Social Survey 1958 to 1968,’ Reconstruction and Development Conference, 1969, p. 46.Google Scholar

Page 234 note 2 Adedeji, Adebayo, Nigerian Federal Finance: its development, problems and prospects (London, 1969), pp. 131, 182–3, and 258.Google Scholar

Page 234 note 3 Alhaji Yahaya Gusau, Opening Address, Reconstruction and Development Conference, 1969.

Page 234 note 4 E. Wayne Nafziger, ‘Economic Factors Contributing to the Nigerian Civil War,’ forthcoming.

Page 235 note 1 Sources: Central Bank, Annual Report, 1969, pp. 22–3; Annual Report and Statement of Accounts for the Year ended 31st December 1970 (Lagos, 1971), p. 29; Monthly Report, May 1971, pp. 22 and 32; and Standard Bank Review, passim. Production figures from the secessionist areas are excluded from the third quarter of 1967 until the last quarter of 1969; however, crude petroleum and manufacturing production was virtually at a standstill here during this period.

Page 235 note 2 Petroleum Press Service, July 1967, p. 265; and August 1967, p. 306.

Page 236 note 1 Ibid. April 1968, pp. 148–9; and August 1968, pp. 289–90.

Page 236 note 2 Central Bank, Annual Report, 1967, p. 19; and Standard Bank Review, 02 1970, p. 17.

Page 237 note 1 Central Bank, Annual Report, 1966, pp. 32–3.

Page 238 note 1 Source: Economic and Statistical Review, 1970, pp. 1 and 3. These fiscal years begin on 1 April; figures in italics cover the 1967–1970 war period.

Page 239 note 1 Kuhn, Tillo E., ‘Transport and Communication Systems Planning for Reconstruction and Development,’ Reconstruction and Development Conference, 1969.Google Scholar

Page 239 note 2 Central Bank, Annual Report, 1968, p. 26; Standard Bank Review, February 1970 p. 22; and ‘Giving the Harbour its Due,’ in West Africa, 6 June 1970, p. 603.

Page 239 note 3 Central Bank, Annual Report, 1969, p. 17.Google Scholar

Page 240 note 1 Comité International de la Croix-Rouge, Food and Agricultural Situation in Biafra (Geneva, 1969, mimeo.).Google Scholar Cf.Eugene, Lerner, M., ‘Money, Prices, and Wages in the Confederacy, 1861–1965,’ in Andreano, Ralph (ed.), The Economic Impact of the American Civil War (Cambridge, Mass., 1962), p. 15.Google Scholar

Page 240 note 2 Lindsay, Kennedy, ‘How Biafra Pays for the War,’ in Venture (London), XXI, 3, 03 1969, pp. 26–7.Google Scholar

Page 240 note 3 Ibid.

Page 241 note 1 Annual Abstract of Statistics: Nigeria 1967, p. 3.

Page 241 note 2 Asika, Ukpabi, ‘Rehabilitation and Resettlement,’ Reconstruction and Development Conference, 1969, p. 4.Google Scholar

Page 241 note 3 Aluko, S. A., ‘Displaced Nigerians,’ in West Africa, 15 04 1967, pp. 495–8.Google Scholar

Page 241 note 4 Samuels, Michael A. (ed.), The Nigerian–Biafra Conflict (Washington, D. C., 1969), pp. 1–16,Google Scholar and Kirk-Greene, A. H. M., Crisis and Conflict in Nigeria: a documentary sourcebook, 1966–1970 (London, 1971), vol. II, pp. 113–30,Google Scholar discuss politico-economic aspects of hunger and relief in the East during 1968–1970.

Page 242 note 1 Ayida, loc. cit. pp. 22–3; Asika, loc. cit. pp. 12–13; and Aboyade, O., ‘The Development Process,’ Reconstruction and Development Conference, 1969, p. 49.Google Scholar

Page 242 note 2 Ayida, loc. cit. pp. 7–23, and O. Aboyade loc. cit. pp. 30–50. Cf. Sombart, Werner, Krieg und Kapitalismus (Munich, 1913).Google Scholar

Page 243 note 1 Report of the Commission of Inquiry into the Civil Disturbances which occurred in certain parts of the Western State of Nigeria in the month of December 1968, and other matters incidental thereto or connected therewith (Ibadan, 1969).

Page 244 note 1 Although Eastern businessmen in the North suffered heavily during 1966–1967 from confiscation, looting, destruction, and abandonment of property, the Northern State Governments took measures to hold their assets in trusteeship until they returned after the war.