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Cuba's Perilous Political Transition to the Post-Castro Era

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  02 April 2015

WILLIAM M. LEOGRANDE
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Abstract

In the years since Raúl Castro took office as president following Fidel Castro's illness and retirement, Cuba has embarked on four major transitions almost simultaneously: a restructuring of elite decision-making; a transformation of Cuba's centrally-planned economy into a market socialist economy; a relaxation of tight social control, providing greater social autonomy for civil society and even a degree of political decompression; and, a transition from the founding generation of the political elite (los históricos) to a successor generation, when neither Castro will hold power. Each of these processes by itself entails political risk; unfolding together, they constitute the greatest political challenge the Cuban regime has faced since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Spanish abstract

En los años desde que Raúl Castro tomó el poder como presidente luego de la enfermedad y retiro de Fidel Castro, Cuba se ha embarcado en cuatro transiciones mayores casi de manera simultánea: una reestructuración de la toma de decisiones de las élites; una transformación de la economía centralizada cubana hacia una economía socialista de mercado; un relajamiento del fuerte control social, lo que ha proveído una mayor autonomía social a la sociedad civil e incluso un cierto grado de descompresión política; y, una transición de la generación de la élite política fundadora (los históricos) a una generación sucesora, en donde ningún Castro tendrá el poder. Cada uno de esos procesos contiene en sí mismo riesgos políticos. Desarrollándose juntos, tales procesos constituyen el reto político más grande que el régimen cubano ha enfrentado desde el colapso de la Unión Soviética.

Portuguese abstract

Nos anos que se seguiram à posse de Raúl Castro como presidente, após a enfermidade e a aposentadoria de Fidel Castro, Cuba deu início, quase que simultaneamente, a quatro importantes transições: a reestruturação do processo decisório das elites; a transformação de uma economia centralmente planejada para uma economia socialista de mercado; um relaxamento do rígido controle social, possibilitando uma autonomia maior da sociedade civil e até mesmo um relaxamento político; e uma transição da geração fundadora da elite política (los históricos) para uma geração sucessora, em um momento no qual nenhum dos irmãos Castro se manterá no poder. Cada um desses processos implica em riscos políticos. Ao desdobrarem-se conjuntamente, constituem o maior desafio político enfrentado pelo regime cubano desde o colapso da União Soviética.

Keywords

leadership successioneconomic reformpolitical reformRaúl CastroCubasucesión de liderazgoreforma económicareforma políticaRaúl CastroCubasucessão de liderançareforma econômicareforma políticaRaúl CastroCuba
Type
Commentary
Information
Journal of Latin American Studies , Volume 47 , Issue 2 , May 2015 , pp. 377 - 405
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2015 

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References

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32 Ibid.

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37 Farber, ‘Visiting Raúl Castro's Cuba’.

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50 Jeffrey Goldberg, ‘Fidel: “Cuban Model Doesn't Even Work For Us Anymore”’, The Atlantic, 8 Sept. 2010.

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56 Agence France Presse, ‘Gobierno pide a cubanos no esperar que “papá Estado” les resuelva todo’, 27 Sept. 2009. Author's translation.

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59 Ibid.

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76 Korbonski, ‘Leadership Succession and Political Change in Eastern Europe’.

77 ‘Fidel es insustituible, salvo que lo sustituyamos todos juntos’, Juventude Rebelde, 21 Dec. 2006. Author's translation.

78 Speech delivered by Army General Raúl Castro Ruz …, during the closing ceremony of the Sixth Session of the Seventh Legislature of the National People's Power Assembly, 18 Dec. 2010.

79 ‘Speech by Dr. Fidel Castro Ruz … [on] International Labor Day, May 1, 2000’, Discursos e intervenciones del Comandante en Jefe Fidel Castro Ruz, available at http:// www.cuba.cu/gobierno/discursos/.

80 See, for example, the description of the 2008 Congress of Artists and Writers in Frank, Cuban Revelations, pp. 111–12.

81 Exchanges in the email war are posted on http://www.desdecuba.com/polemica/index.shtml.

82 Arturo García Hernández, ‘La política cultural de Cuba, sin dogmas ni sectarismos’, La Jornada (México), 26 Feb. 2007. See Simpson, Adam, ‘Civil Society in the Digital Age: How the Internet Changes State-Society Relations in Authoritarian Regimes: The Case of Cuba’, in Civil Society Activism Under Authoritarian Rule: A Comparative Perspective, in Cavatorta, Francesco (ed.) (New York: Routledge, 2013), pp. 231–4Google Scholar.

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84 Marc Frank, ‘Castro in First Church Overtures’, Financial Times, 24 May 2010.

85 ‘Central Report to the Sixth Congress’.

86 Raúl Castro, ‘Our Responsibility Is to Promote Greater Democracy in Our Society, Beginning by Providing an Example Within the Ranks of the Party’, Granma International, 30 Jan. 2012.

87 John Rice, ‘Cuba Joins Other Latin Nations in Shift Toward Open-source Software’, Associated Press, 17 Feb. 2007; Dalia Acosta, ‘High Tech: Cuba Turns to Venezuela to Solve Internet Woes’, Inter Press Service, 14 Feb. 2007.

88 Ted A. Henken, Sjamme van de Voort and Ellery Biddle, ‘From Cyberspace to Public Space? The Emergent Blogosphere and Cuban Civil Society’, in Brenner et al., A Contemporary Cuba Reader: The Revolution under Raúl, pp. 99–110.

89 John Rice, ‘Cuban Official Defends Internet Controls Associated Press Online’, Associated Press, 13 Feb. 2007.

90 Dalia Acosta, ‘Cuba: More Bloggers Are Firing off Thoughts from the Island IPS – Inter Press Service’, 6 Oct. 2008; David Adams, ‘Cuban Dissent Finds Voice on Internet,’ St. Petersburg Times (Florida), 7 Feb. 2008.

91 Henken, van de Voort and Biddle, ‘From Cyberspace to Public Space?’

92 ‘La prensa cubana silencia la “crítica al silencio” de Miguel Díaz-Canel’, 7 May 2013, La Chiringa de Cuba, available at www.chiringadecuba.com/la-prensa-cubana-silencia-la-critica-al-silencio-de-miguel-diaz-canel-vide/. Author's translation.

93 Quoted in Frank, Cuban Revelations, p. 251.

94 Setting the ground rules for legitimate debate, Fidel Castro famously declared in 1961, ‘Within the revolution, everything; against the revolution, nothing’. Over the years, however, what was considered ‘within’ the revolution has varied considerably, and not always predictably. Castro, Fidel, ‘Words to the Intellectuals’, in Fidel Castro Reader (Melbourne, Australia: Ocean Press, 2008), pp. 213–40Google Scholar.

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97 Partido Comunista de Cuba, Objectivos de Trabajo del Partido Comunista de Cuba Aprobados por la Primera Conferencia, 29 Jan. 2012.

98 ‘Central Report to the Sixth Congress’.

99 Speech delivered by Army General Raúl Castro Ruz … during the closing ceremony of the Sixth Session of the Seventh Legislature of the National People's Power Assembly, 18 Dec. 2010.

100 Dalia Acosta, ‘Raúl Castro Proposes Change from Within Socialist System’, Inter Press Service, 19 April 2011.

101 ‘Our Greatest Satisfaction Is the Tranquility and Calm Confidence We Feel Handing over the Responsibility of Continuing to Build Socialism to New Generations’, Granma International, 26 Feb. 2013.

102 Ibid.

103 Frank, Cuban Reveleations, 40.

104 Mesa-Lago and Pérez-López, Cuba Under Raúl Castro; Morris, Emily, ‘Unexpected Cuba’, New Left Review, 88 (2014), pp. 5–45Google Scholar; Alfonso, Haroldo Dilla, ‘La dirección y los límites de los cambios’, Nueva Sociedad, 216 (2008), pp. 36–48Google Scholar.

105 Domínguez, Jorge I., ‘Comienza una transición hacia el autoritarismo en Cuba’, Encuentro 6/7 (1997), p. 9Google Scholar.

106 The concept of ‘islands of autonomy’ is from Bunce, Valerie, Subversive Institutions: The Design and Destruction of Socialism and the State (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1999)CrossRefGoogle Scholar. On how economic reforms in a centrally planned economy can lead to social pluralism, setting the stage for political change, see Stark, David, ‘Entrepreneurs on the Road to Post-Communism’, Contemporary Sociology, 18: 5 (1989), pp. 671–4CrossRefGoogle Scholar. An application to the Cuban case is Domínguez, Jorge I.,  ‘Comienza una transición hacia el autoritarismo en Cuba’, Encuentro 6–7, (1997), pp. 7–23Google Scholar.

107 Stokes, Gail, The Walls Came Tumbling Down: The Collapse of Communism in Eastern Europe (New York: Oxford University Press, 1993)Google Scholar. For a discussion of the social pact in Cuba, see ‘Cuba: ¿hacia un nuevo pacto social?’, Espacio Laical suplemento digital, abril 2011, available at http://espaciolaical.org/contens/esp/sd_125.pdf.