Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-mkpzs Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-25T01:19:51.119Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

High Inflation and Bolivian Agriculture1

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 February 2009

Ricardo Godoy  and
Mario De Franco
Ricardo Godoy
Affiliation:
Research Associate, Harvard Institute for International Development, and Lecturer, Department of Anthropology, Harvard University.
Mario De Franco
Affiliation:
Director, Gestión Pública, Instituto Centroamericano de Administración de Empresas (INCAE), Managua, Nicaragua.
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

A nation that demands from its government nothing but the maintenance of order is already a slave in the bottom of its heart; it is the slave of its wellbeing, and the man who is to chain it can arrive on the scene.

Type
Research Article
Information
Journal of Latin American Studies , Volume 24 , Issue 3 , October 1992 , pp. 617 - 637
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1992

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

2 Morales, J. A. and Sachs, J., ‘Bolivia's Economic Crisis’, in Sachs, J., Developing Country Debt and the World Economy (Chicago, 1990), vol. 2, p. 159.Google Scholar

3 Morales, J. A. and Sachs, J., ‘Bolivia's Economic Crisis’, in Sachs, J., Developing Country Debt and the World Economy (Chicago, 1989) vol. IGoogle Scholar; Sachs, J., ‘The Bolivian Hyperinflation and Stabilisation’, American Economic Review, vol. 72, no. 2 (1987), pp. 279–283Google Scholar; Pastor, M., ‘Bolivia: Hyperinflation, Stabilisation, and Beyond’, journal of Development Studies, vol. 27, no. 2 (1991), pp. 211–237.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

4 Morales, J. A., ‘Impacto de los ajustes estructurales en la agricultura campesina boliviana’, in El impacto de la NPE en el sector agropecuario (La Paz, 1990), pp. 9–70Google Scholar; Unidad de Análisis de Políticas Económicas (UDAPE), ‘Análisis del impacto de las políticas macroeconómicas y factores externos en el sector agrícola’, in El impacto de la NPE; Urioste, M., Resistencia campesina. Efectos de la politica económica neoliberal del Decreto Supremo 21060 (La Paz, 1989).Google Scholar

5 Eder, G. J., Inflation and Development in Latin America. A Case History of Inflation and Stabilisation in Bolivia (Ann Arbor, 1968), p. 558.Google Scholar

6 Mann, A. J. and Pastor, M. Jr., ‘Orthodox Stabilisation Policies in Bolivia and Peru: 1985–1988’, journal of Interamerican Studies and World Affairs, vol. 31, no. 4 (1989), pp. 163–192CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Morales, J. A., ‘Hyperinflation, Recession and Growth (Bolivia). Phase II’, unpubl. manus., Universidad Católica de BoliviaGoogle Scholar; and Morales, J. A., ‘Impacto de los ajustes…’.Google Scholar

7 Maletta, H., ‘Agriculture y política económica en Bolivia, 1985–1987’, Debate Agrario, vol. 2 (1989), pp. 87–123.Google Scholar

8 We deflated nominal prices by the Consumer Price Index (CP1) (1985 = 100).

9 The terms of trade are defined as the ratio of Wholesale Agricultural Prices to Industrial Prices (1985 = 100).

10 UDAPE, Análisis de la encuesta de precios de finca-US AID, unpubl. manus. (La Paz, 1989), p. 15Google Scholar and UDAPE, ‘Análisis del Impacto’, pp. 117–119.Google Scholar

11 UDAPE, ‘Análisis de la encuesta’, p. 5.Google Scholar

12 Maletta, , ‘Agricultura y política económica’.Google Scholar

13 UDAPE, ‘Análisis del impacto’, p. 160.Google Scholar

14 Cariaga, J. L., ‘Three Policy Experiments: Bolivia’, in Williamson, J., Latin American Adjustment: How Much Has Happened? (Washington D.C., 1990), p. 46.Google Scholar

15 Morales, , ‘Impacto de los ajustes…’, pp. 52–54.Google Scholar

16 World Bank, Bolivia. Poverty Report (Washington D.C., 1990).Google Scholar

17 UDAPE, ‘Evolución del comercio exterior de productos agropecuarios (1980–1987)’, Working Paper (La Paz, 1989Google Scholar and Morales, , ‘Impacto de los ajustes…’, p. 15.Google Scholar

18 Morales, , ‘Impacto de los ajustes…’, p. 28Google Scholar; World Bank, Bolivia. Poverty Report, p. 28.Google Scholar

19 World Bank, Bolivia. Poverty Report, p. 30Google Scholar and Bolivia. Agricultural Pricing and Investment Policies (Washington, D.C., 1984).Google Scholar

20 Beltrán, A. and De Franco, M., ‘Un modelo de equilibrio general para el sector agrícola’, unpubl. manus., UDAPE (La Paz, 1989).Google Scholar

21 Espejo, J., ‘El sector productivo durante el período inflacionario’, Universidad Católica Boliviana, Working Paper no. 90/91 (La Paz, 1990).Google Scholar

22 Healy, K., ‘The Boom Within the Crisis: Some Recent Effects of Foreign Cocaine Markets on Bolivia in Rural Society and Economy’, in Pacini, D. and Franquemont, C., Coca and Cocaine (Cambridge, 1986), pp. 101–144.Google Scholar

23 De Franco, M. and Godoy, R., ‘The Economic Consequences of Cocaine Production in Bolivia: Historical, Local, and Macroeconomic Perspectives’, Journal of Latin American Studies May 1992, pp. 375–406.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

24 Morales, and Sachs, , ‘Bolivia's Economic Crisis’ (1989), p. 70Google Scholar and ‘Bolivia's Economic Crisis’ (1990), p. 232.Google Scholar Spending probably fell in real terms during 1982–5, though it rose as a percentage of collapsing GDP.

25 Horton, S., ‘Labour Markets in an Era of Adjustment: Bolivia’, unpubl. manus. (New Haven, 1990), p. 20.Google Scholar

26 World Bank, Bolivia. Poverty Report, p. 28.Google Scholar

27 Chávez, A. G., ‘Alta inflación, hiperinflación, y variabilidad de los precios relativos: El caso boliviano’, Universidad Católica Boliviana, Working Paper no. 05/89 (La Paz, 1989), P. 43.Google Scholar

28 An anonymous referee perceptively observed that: ‘Low response of agricultural output to rising real wholesale producer prices suggests the hypothesis that the price rises were perceived as transitory. Peasants probably saved the extra proceeds and “invested” them in durable goods, that are often the preferred assets of the poor, instead of in improvements to increase their supply. Besides, under some reasonable hypotheses, better prices and income need not induce more work’.

29 As one anonymous referee noted, better wholesale prices do not imply, either factually or logically, better farmgate prices. Owing to the many imperfections in Bolivia's agricultural marketing system, improved wholesale agricultural prices may not have necessarily translated into higher farmgate prices.

30 Cardoso, E., ‘Food Supply and Inflation’, Journal of Development Economics, vol. 8 (1981), pp. 269–284CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Edel, M., Food Supply and Inflation in Latin America (New York, 1969).Google Scholar

31 Espejo, J., ‘El empleo y la distribución del ingreso durante la inflación’, Universidad Católica Boliviana, Working Paper no. 05/90 (1990), pp. 24–28.Google Scholar

32 The poorest 20–25% of the population in a developing country typically spend 60–80% of their income on food. See Mellor, J. W., ‘Food Policy, Food Aid and Structural Adjustment Programmes: The Context of Agricultural Development’, Food Policy, vol. 13 (1988), p. 14.CrossRefGoogle Scholar Information on food expenditures for Bolivia comes from De Franco, M. and Godoy, R., ‘Potato-Led Growth. The Macroeconomic Impact of Technological Innovations in Bolivian Agriculture’, Journal of Development Studies (forthcoming).Google Scholar

33 Morales, and Sachs, , ‘Bolivia's Economic Crisis’, (1990), p. 171.Google Scholar

34 Pastor, , ‘Bolivia’.Google Scholar

35 ibid.

36 ibid.

37 Morales, and Sachs, , ‘Bolivia’ (1990), p. 171.Google Scholar

38 Pastor, , ‘Bolivia’.Google Scholar

39 Espejo, J., ‘El empleo y la distributión del ingreso durante la inflatión’, Universidad Católica de Bolivia, Working Paper no. 05/90 (La Paz, 1990), p. 26.Google Scholar

40 Espejo, , ‘El sector productivo…’, p. 56Google Scholar and ‘El empleo y la distributión’, p. 27.

41 Cariaga, , ‘Three Policy Experiments’Google Scholar; and Pastor, , ‘Bolivia’.Google Scholar

42 Morales, and Sachs, , ‘Bolivia's Economic Crisis’ (1989), p. 75.Google Scholar

43 Morales, , ‘Impacto de los ajustes’Google Scholar; UDAPE, ‘Análisis del impacto’Google Scholar; Urioste, , Resistencia campesinaGoogle Scholar; Commander, S. (ed.), Structural Adjustment and Agriculture. Theory and Practice in Africa and Latin America (London, 1989)Google Scholar; Sarris, A. H., Agricultural Stabilisation and Structural Adjustment Policies in Developing Countries, FAO, Economic and Social Development Paper no. 65 (Rome, 1987)Google Scholar; Norton, R. D., Agricultural Issues in Structural Adjustment Programmes, FAO, Economic and Social Development Paper no. 66 (Rome, 1987)Google Scholar; Helwege, A., ‘Latin American Agricultural Performance in the Debt Crisis: Salvation or Stagnation?, Latin American Perspectives, vol. 61, no. 17 (1990), pp. 57–75CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Twomey, M. J., ‘The Debt Crisis and Latin American Agriculture’, The Journal of Developing Areas, vol. 23 (1989), pp. 545–566.Google Scholar

44 See, for example, the articles in El impacto de la NPE en el sector agropecuario (La Paz, 1990)Google Scholar and Urioste, , Resistencia campesina.Google Scholar

45 UDAPE, ‘Políticas sectoriales relacionadas a la agricultura (1980–1987)’ (La Paz, 1989).Google Scholar

46 Pastor, , ‘Bolivia’Google Scholar; Morales, , ‘Impacto de los ajustes…’Google Scholar; Edwards, S., ‘Exchange Rate Policy in Bolivia: Recent Developments and Future Prospects’ (Cambridge, 1990)Google Scholar; Domínguez, K. and Rodrik, D., ‘Exchange Rate Management and Growth in the Aftermath of Stabilisation: The Bolivian Case’ (unpubl. manus., 1990).Google Scholar

47 UDAPE, ‘Evolución del comercio exterior…’, p. 15.Google Scholar

48 Srinivasan, T. N., Structural Adjustment, Stabilisation, and the Poor, World Bank, Economic Development Institute (Washington, D.C., 1988)Google Scholar; Streeten, P., ‘A Survey of the Issues and Options’, in Commander, , Structural Adjustment and Agriculture, pp. 3–18Google Scholar; Nelson, J. M., ‘The Political Economy of Stabilisation: Commitment, Capacity, and Public Response’, World Development, vol. 12, no. 10 (1984), pp. 983–1006CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Commander, S., ‘Prices, Markets, and Rigidities. African Agriculture, 1980–1988’, in Commander, , Structural Adjustment and Agriculture, pp. 228–248.Google Scholar

49 Commander, , ‘Prices, Markets, and Rigidities’, p. 230.Google Scholar

50 UDAPE, ‘Vulnerabilidad externa, poliítica fiscal y ajuste macroeconómico: el caso boliviano’ (La Paz, 1989), p. 3.Google Scholar

51 World Bank, Bolivia. Poverty Report, p. 12.Google Scholar

52 Maletta, , ‘Agricultura y política…’.Google Scholar

53 Morales, , ‘Impacto…’, p. 44Google Scholar and UDAPE, ‘Análisis de la encuesta…’.Google Scholar

54 Urioste, , Resistencia campesina, pp. 40–41.Google Scholar

55 Webb, A. K., ‘Women and Rural Poverty in Bolivia’, World Bank, unpubl. manus. (Washington, D.C., 1989), p. 3Google Scholar; Urioste, , Resistencia campesina, pp. 44–45.Google Scholar

56 World Bank, Bolivia. Updating Economic Memorandum (Washington, D.C., 1990), p. 79.Google Scholar

57 Commander, , ‘Prices, Markets, and Rigidities’, pp. 236–238.Google Scholar

58 An appreciating exchange rate can sometimes help agriculture by lowering the price of imported materials. See Twomey, , ‘The Debt Crisis’.Google Scholar Since Bolivian farmers use small amounts of imported materials, the benefits of cheaper imports will not necessarily help them. For a parallel example from the mid-1950s see Alexander, R. J., The Bolivian National Revolution (New Brunswick, 1958), p. 211.Google Scholar

59 World Bank, Bolivia. Poverty Report.Google Scholar

60 Lipton, M. and Longhurst, R., Modern Varieties, International Agricultural Research and the Poor (Washington D.C., 1985).Google Scholar

61 Timmer, P., ‘The Agricultural Transformation’ in Srinivasan, T. N. and Chenery, H. (eds.), The Handbook of Development Economics (The Hague, 1988), pp. 275–331.Google Scholar

62 Herdt, R., ‘A Retrospective View of Technological and Other Changes in Phillipine Rice Farming 1905–1982’, Economic Development and Cultural Change, vol. 35, no. 2 (1987), PP. 46–65.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

63 Mellor, J. W., The New Economics of Growth (New York, 1976).Google Scholar

64 Scobie, G. M. and Posada, R., ‘The Impact of Technological Change on Income Distribution: The case of Rice in Colombia’, American Journal of Agricultural Economics vol. 23 (1978), pp. 162–175.Google Scholar

65 De Franco, M. and Godoy, R., ‘Potato-Led Growth’, op. cit.Google Scholar

66 De Franco, M. and Godoy, R., ‘Potato-Led Growth”.Google Scholar

67 Information supplied by the National Institute of Statistics, 1989.

68 Sachs, J., ‘Social Conflict of Populist Policies in Latin America’, National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper no. 2,897 (Cambridge, 1989).CrossRefGoogle ScholarDornbusch, R. and Edwards, S., ‘The Economic Populism Paradigm’, paper presented at the conference on ‘Macro Policies and Income Distribution in Latin America: The Economics of Populism’ (Washington, D.C., 1990).Google Scholar

69 Sachs, , ‘Social Conflict’.Google Scholar

70 Eder, , Inflation, p. 601.Google Scholar

71 Morales, and Sachs, , ‘Bolivia's Economic Crisis’ (1990).Google Scholar