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Dating the Great Divergence

Part of: Dating the Great Divergence

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  23 June 2021

Jack A. Goldstone
Jack A. Goldstone*
Affiliation:
George Mason University, Fairfax, 22030-4444VA, USA
*
Corresponding author. E-mail: [email protected]
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Abstract

New data on Dutch and British GDP/capita show that at no time prior to 1750, perhaps not before 1800, did the leading countries of northwestern Europe enjoy sustained strong growth in GDP/capita. Such growth in income per head as did occur was highly episodic, concentrated in a few decades and then followed by long periods of stagnation of income per head. Moreover, at no time before 1800 did the leading economies of northwestern Europe reach levels of income per capita much different from peak levels achieved hundreds of years earlier in the most developed regions of Italy and China. When the Industrial Revolution began in Britain, it was not preceded by patterns of pre-modern income growth that were in any way remarkable, neither by sustained prior growth in real incomes nor exceptional levels of income per head. The Great Divergence, seen as the onset of sustained increases in income per head despite strong population growth, and achievement of incomes beyond pre-modern peaks, was a late occurrence, arising only from 1800.

Keywords

Great divergenceglobal historyHollandGreat BritainChinaindustrial revolutionnational accounts
Type
Position Paper
Information
Journal of Global History , Volume 16 , Issue 2 , July 2021 , pp. 266 - 285
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Copyright
© The Author(s), 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press

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15 The decadal averages shown in Figure 1, and the period growth rates in Table 1, are calculated by the author from the annual data provided in van Zanden and van Leeuwen, “Reconstruction”.

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19 Broadberry, “Accounting,” Fouquet and Broadberry, “Seven centuries”.

20 The 1340s were used as the last decade for the early fourteenth century because the Black Death created a sharp discontinuity between the 1340s and 1350s. Throughout this paper, decadal levels and growth rates presented as “from Broadberry et al.” were calculated from their annual data (Appendix 5.3, 225–244), unless explicitly attributed to another specific table in Broadberry et al.

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22 Broadberry et al., British Economic Growth, Table 10.02.

23 Ibid., Table 5.01.

24 Humphries and Weisdorf, “Unreal Wages,” Table A2.

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31 Note: for Allen and Clark, as their output data is only for England and Wales, I derive per capita output from 1700 onwards using their total output and the population data on England and Wales (not Britain) from E. A. Wrigley, R. S. Davies, J. E. Oeppen, and R. S. Schofield, English Population History from Family Reconstitution, 1580–1837 (Cambridge, 1997), Table A9.1. For Clark, I use agricultural output with his assumption of a 250-day working year.

32 Broadberry et al., British Economic Growth, Table 3.07.

33 Ibid., pp. 86, 99.

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42 Ibid., 212.

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46 Broadberry et al., British Economic Growth, 203, 211.

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48 Broadberry et al., British Economic Growth, 203.

49 These arguments are presented in the works cited in footnotes 9–14.

50 Decade averages calculated from the annual data provided in van Zanden and van Leeuwen, “Reconstruction”.

51 S. Broadberry, H. Guan and D. D. Li, “China, Europe and the Great Divergence: A Study in Historical National Accounting 980-1850,” Journal of Economic History 17 (2018): 47.

52 China GDP/cap data from Broadberry, Guan and Li, “China, Europe,” 46; Chinese population levels from von Glahn, China, 225, 330.

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57 Von Glahn, China, 300, 346.

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61 Shaw-Taylor and Wrigley, “Occupational Structure,” 84, 86.