In the application of modern portfolio theory, the systematic risk of a security is of central importance. Beta (β), the future regression coefficient of the return of the security on the return of the market, is an index of that risk. Since the future is yet to be revealed, nonclairvoyant practitioners and researchers must rely on estimated rather than actual values of beta and the estimates must be based on data that are currently available.

Empirical investigations into the codetermination of security prices and economic events are called event studies. There are several ways of estimating the codetermination of interest. Since Fama, Fisher, Jensen, and Roll [8], it has been general practice to first translate variables into rates of return, then net out general market movements, and, finally, examine the relationship between residual returns and events. The methodology in all of its variants falls under the rubric of “residual analysis.”

Changes in the Japanese financial system over the coming decade will play a significant role in the functioning of U.S. financial markets and, indeed, of the entire U.S. economy. From World War II through at least the mid–1970s, the United States was a major exporter of investment capital in the form of foreign direct and portfolio investment. More recently, low U.S. savings rates, recurring federal budget deficits, reduced sovereign lending by U.S. banks, and, possibly, high real returns on domestic investment have combined to make the United States a major importer of capital. At the same time, large trade surpluses and very high savings rates in Japan have more than offset increases in government borrowing to make Japan the world's principal capital exporter, a position it is likely to hold for some time. These are fundamental changes.

In this paper, we attempt to blend economic theory with an understanding of the historical context and regulation of Japanese financial markets, particularly during the 1950s and 1960s. The historical and regulatory context is critical since it represents the framework within which the economic forces operated. That is, we are interested in examining how a particular structure, characterized by controlled interest rates, segmentation of markets and functions, and limited entry, gave rise in understandable ways to distinctive corporate financial practices.

The large volume of government bonds issued since 1975 has been a strong driving force for structural change in the Japanese bond markets during the last decade. The increasing amount of outstanding government bonds has made the trading volume in the secondary market increase rapidly, accompanied with the development of interdealer trading.

The implicit contract theory explored by Azariadis [2] suggests that wage rigidity and underemployment are explained by the microeconomic optimizing behavior of each agent in the labor market. In this theory, the former phenomenon is interpreted as risk-sharing arrangements between firms and workers, whereas the latter may occur when workers have the opportunity to use leisure or unemployment insurance benefits.

In Japan, it has long been a common practice among corporations to issue new shares at par value and offer them to shareholders without underwriting agreements. However, in January 1969, Nihon Gakki (a musical instrument maker) successfully offered new shares at the market price through underwriting agreements. Other corporations followed suit and the capital raised through this method in fiscal year 1972 amounted to ¥861 billion, accounting for more than 65 percent of the total capital raised during the year. At present, over 70 percent of Japanese corporations raise new equity capital at the market price via the negotiated underwriting method. Almost all underwriters employ a “firm commitment” agreement, in which the underwriter agrees to purchase the whole issue from the firm at a particular price for resale to the public. The agreement is normally signed on the day before the issue announcement, at which time the offering price to the public is specified. As soon as the offering price is filed with the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the underwriter is precluded from selling the shares above this price. Though the offering price initially was highly discounted, between 1970 and 1980 this discount rate gradually decreased from 15 percent to 5 percent of the daily stock price (see Table 1). The final settlement with the underwriter usually takes place fourteen to nineteen days after the registration statement becomes effective. At that time, the company receives the proceeds of the sale, minus the underwriter's fee. This fee, which is usually fixed at 3.5 percent of the money to be raised, consists of a compensation fee, a managing fee, a sales fee, and a brokerage fee, none of which can be separated on the contract.

Little attention has been paid by the academic community in the United States to the Japanese stock market and its structure. Japan has the second largest economy in the Western world, and the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) is second only to the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in terms of aggregate market values and sales volume. Analysis of the Japanese stock market is useful given its relative importance, but, in addition, examination of the Japanese market may offer insights into controversies surrounding U.S. markets. This study focuses on two such current controversies: the January and size anomalies.

Stock markets in the United States and foreign countries exhibit a strong weekly seasonal, an empirical regularity for which no theoretical explanation has been found. One's belief in this phenomenon would be strengthened if it is known to also occur in capital markets separated from those in the United States by distance, institutional arrangements, and culture.

While access to financial data and information about the performance of Japanese companies remains less than ideal, it is now possible to get much more of the information necessary to test research questions in Japanese finance than was possible even a few years ago. Data sources once available only in Japan have now become available to U.S. -based researchers as well.